Scenarios of Earthquake and Tsunami Damage Probability in Callao Region, Peru Using Tsunami Fragility Functions
Bruno Adriano*1, Erick Mas*2, Shunichi Koshimura*2,
Miguel Estrada*3, and Cesar Jimenez*4,*5
*1Graduate School of Engineering, Tohoku University, Aoba 468-1-E301, Aramaki, Aoba-ku, Sendai 980-0845, Japan
*2International Research Institute of Disaster Science (IRIDeS), Tohoku University, Japan
*3Japan-Peru Center for Earthquake Engineering and Disaster Mitigation (CISMID), National University of Engineering, Lima, Perú
*4Dirección de Hidrografía y Navegación, DHN, Callao, Perú
*5Fenlab, Universidad Nacional Mayor de San Marcos (UNMSM), Lima, Perú
The implementation of adequate urban development and measures systems against tsunami impact in coastal communities is improved by understanding damage probability among building structures. Within the framework of the project Enhancement of Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation Technology in Peru (JST-JICA SATREPS), the authors analyze the damage probability of building structures due to tsunami impact in the Callao region of Peru. Two different tsunami hazard scenarios are assumed in assessing building damage probability. The first tsunami scenario represents the worse-case scenario of tsunami inundation that calculates the envelop of maximum inundation depth and flow velocity values from 12 probabilistic megathrust earthquake scenarios for central Peru. The second tsunami scenario corresponds to a historical tsunami event in this region. We apply a methodology for evaluating different levels of building damage by combining tsunami numerical results and tsunami fragility functions. Damage probability was analyzed in detail on a single building scale in the La Punta district. For the rest of Callao region, analysis was performed on a block-unit scale. Our results suggest that approximately 30% of submerged building may be washed away by tsunami inundation in the probabilistic hazard scenario and approximately 60% in the historical hazard scenario.
Miguel Estrada, and Cesar Jimenez, “Scenarios of Earthquake and Tsunami Damage Probability in Callao Region, Peru Using Tsunami Fragility Functions,” J. Disaster Res., Vol.9, No.6, pp. 968-975, 2014.
-  S. L. Beck and L. J. Ruff, “Great earthquakes and subduction along the Peru trench,” Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors, Vol.57, pp. 199-224, Nov. 1989.
-  L.Dorbath, A. Cisternas, and C. Dorbath, “Assessment of the size of large and great historical earthquakes in Peru,” Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, Vol.80, No.3, pp. 551-576, 1990.
-  C. Jimenez, N. Moggiano, E. Mas, B. Adriano, S. Koshimura, Y. Fujii, and H. Yanagisawa, “Seismic source of Callao 1746 earthquake obtained through tsunami numerical modeling,” Journal of Disaster Research, Vol.8, No.2, p. 10, 2013.
-  E. Mas, B. Adriano, H. Kuroiwa, and S. Koshimura, “Reconstruction process and social issues after the 1746 earthquake and tsunami in Peru: past and present challenges after tsunami events,” in “ Restoration and Reconstruction after Tsunami” (V. Santiago-Fandino, Y. Kontar, and Y. Kaneda (Eds.)), Springer, Netherlands, 2014 (in press).
-  J. Kuroiwa, “Disaster reduction : living in harmony with nature,” Lima: Editorial NSG S.A.C, first edited., 2004.
-  Lima Aiport Partners, “Aeropuerto Internacional Jorge Chavez,” 2013.
-  N. Alam, M. S. Alam, and S. Tesfamariam, “Buildings’ seismic vulnerability assessment methods: a comparative study,” Natural Hazards, Vol.62, pp. 405-424, Jan. 2012.
-  N. Pulido, H. Tavera, H. Perfettini, M. Chlieh, S. Aoi, S. Nakai, and F. Yamazaki, “Estimation of slip scenarios for magathrust earthquakes: A case of study for Peru,” in 4th IASPEI / IAEE International Symposium, Effects of Surface Geology on Seismic Motion, University of California Santa Barbara, pp. 1-8, 2011.
-  N. Pulido, H. Tavera, Z. Aguilar, M. Chlieh, D. Calderon, T. Sekiguchi, S. Nakai, and F. Yamazaki, “Mega-earthquakes rupture scenarios and strong motion simulations for Lima, Peru,” in The International Symposium for CISMID 25th Anniversary, pp. 1-8, 2012.
-  E. Mas, B. Adriano, N. Pulido, C. Jimenez, and S. Koshimura, “Simulation of tsunami inundation from future megathrust earthquake scenarios of Central Peru,” Journal of Disaster Research, Vol.9, No.6, 2014.
-  Instituto Nacional de Estadistica e Informatica (INEI; Institute of Statistic and Informatics), “Censos Nacionales 2007,” 2007.
-  D. Dominey-Howes, P. Dunbar, J. Varner, and M. Papathoma-Köhle, “Estimating probable maximum loss from a Cascadia tsunami,” Natural Hazards, Vol.53, pp. 43-61, June, 2009.
-  R. Omira, M. a. Baptista, J. M. Miranda, E. Toto, C. Catita, and J. Catalão, “Tsunami vulnerability assessment of Casablanca-Morocco using numerical modelling and GIS tools,” Natural Hazards, Vol.54, pp. 75-95, Sept. 2009.
-  G. R. Priest, C. Goldfinger, K. Wang, R. C. Witter, Y. Zhang, and A. M. Baptista, “Confidence levels for tsunami-inundation limits in northern Oregon inferred from a 10,000-year history of great earthquakes at the Cascadia subduction zone,” Natural Hazards, Vol.54, pp. 27-73, Sept. 2009.
-  A. Atillah, D. El Hadani, H. Moudni, O. Lesne, C. Renou, A. Mangin, and F. Rouffi, “Tsunami vulnerability and damage assessment in the coastal area of Rabat and Salé, Morocco,” Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, Vol.11, pp. 3397-3414, Dec. 2011.
-  D. M. Wiebe and D. T. Cox, “Application of fragility curves to estimate building damage and economic loss at a community scale: a case study of Seaside, Oregon,” Natural Hazards, Vol.71, pp. 2043-2061, Dec. 2013.
-  Centro de Estudios y Prevención de Desastres – PREDES, “Diseño de escenario sobre el impacto de un sismo de gran magnitud en Lima Metropolitana y Callo, Perú,” tech. rep., Instituto Nacional de Defensa Civil – INDECI, Lima, Peru, 2009.
-  PNUD/SDP-052/2009, “Investigación sobre el PELIGRO DE TSUNAMI en el Área Metropolitana de Lima y Callao,” in SISTEMA DE INFORMACIÓN SOBRE RECURSOS PARA ATENCIÓN DE DESASTRES, COOPERAZIONE INTERNAZIONALE ? COOPI, 2010.
-  B. Adriano, E. Mas, S. Koshimura, Y. Fujii, S. Yauri, C. Jimenez, and H. Yanagisawa, “Tsunami inundation mapping in Lima, for two tsunami source scenarios,” Journal of Disaster Research, Vol.8, No.2, pp. 274-284, 2013.
-  S. Koshimura, T. Katada, H. O.Mofjeld, and Y. Kawata, “A method for estimating casualties due to the tsunami inundation flow,” Natural Hazards, Vol.39, pp. 265-274, Oct. 2006.
-  A. Muhari, F. Imamura, S. Koshimura, and J. Post, “Examination of three practical run-up models for assessing tsunami impact on highly populated areas,” Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, Vol.11, pp. 3107-3123, Dec. 2011.
-  N. Mori, T. Takahashi, and The 2011 Tohoku Earthquake Tsunami Joint Survey Group, “Nationwide post event survey and analysis of the 2011 Tohoku Earthquake Tsunami,” Coastal Engineering Journal, Vol.54, No.1, pp. 1250001-1, 2012.
-  H. Gokon and S. Koshimura, “Mapping of Building Damage of the 2011 Tohoku Earthquake Tsunami in Miyagi Prefecture,” Coastal Engineering Journal, Vol.54, No.1, pp. 1250006-1, 2012.
-  A. Suppasri, S. Koshimura, K. Imai, E. Mas, H. Gokon, A. Muhari, and F. Imamura, “Damage Characteristic and Field Survey of the 2011 Great East Japan Tsunami in Miyagi Prefecture,” Coastal Engineering Journal, Vol.54, No.1, pp. 1250005-1, 2012.
-  A. Suppasri, N. Shuto, F. Imamura, S. Koshimura, E. Mas, and A. C. Yalciner, “Lessons Learned from the 2011 Great East Japan Tsunami: Performance of Tsunami Countermeasures, Coastal Buildings, and Tsunami Evacuation in Japan,” Pure and Applied Geophysics, July 2012.
-  M. Papathoma and D. Dominey-Howes, “Tsunami vulnerability assessment and its implications for coastal hazard analysis and disaster management planning, Gulf of Corinth, Greece,” Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, Vol.3, No.6, pp. 733-747, 2003.
-  F. Dall’Osso, M. Gonella, G. Gabbianelli, G. Withycombe, and D. Dominey-Howes, “A revised (PTVA) model for assessing the vulnerability of buildings to tsunami damage,” Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, Vol.9, pp. 1557-1565, Sept. 2009.
-  N. Leelawat, A. Suppasri, I. Charvet, and F. Imamura, “Building damage from the 2011 Great East Japan tsunami: quantitative assessment of influential factors,” Natural Hazards, Feb. 2014.
-  S. Koshimura, Y. Namegaya, and H. Yanagisawa, “Tsunami fragility: a new measure to identify tsunami damage,” Journal of Disaster Research, Vol.4, No.6, pp. 479-488, 2009.
-  S. Koshimura, T. Oie, H. Yanagisawa, and F. Imamura, “Developing fragility functions for tsunami damage estimation using numerical model and post-tsunami data from Banda Aceh, Indonesia,” Coastal Engineering Journal, Vol.51, pp. 243-273, Sept. 2009.
-  A. Suppasri, S. Koshimura, and F. Imamura, “Developing tsunami fragility curves based on the satellite remote sensing and the numerical modeling of the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami in Thailand,” Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, Vol.11, pp. 173-189, Jan. 2011.
-  E. Mas, S. Koshimura, A. Suppasri, M. Matsuoka, M. Matsuyama, T. Yoshii, C. Jimenez, F. Yamazaki, and F. Imamura, “Developing Tsunami fragility curves using remote sensing and survey data of the 2010 Chilean Tsunami in Dichato,” Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, Vol.12, pp. 2689-2697, Aug. 2012.
-  A. Suppasri, E. Mas, S. Koshimura, K. Imai, K. Harada, and F. Imamura, “Developing tsunami fragility curves from the surveyed data of the 2011 great east Japan Tsunami in Sendai and Ishinomaki plains,” Coastal Engineering Journal, Vol.54, No.1, pp. 1250008-1-1250008-1, 2012.
-  A. Suppasri, E. Mas, I. Charvet, R. Gunasekera, K. Imai, Y. Fukutani, Y. Abe, and F. Imamura, “Building damage characteristics based on surveyed data and fragility curves of the 2011 Great East Japan tsunami,” Natural Hazards, Vol.66, pp. 319-341, Nov. 2012.
-  I. Charvet, I. Ioannou, T. Rossetto, A. Suppasri, and F. Imamura, “Empirical fragility assessment of buildings affected by the 2011 Great East Japan tsunami using improved statistical models,” Natural Hazards, Mar. 2014.
-  B. Adriano, E. Mas, S. Koshimura, and Y. Fujii, “Remote Sensingbased Assessment of Tsunami Vulnerability in the coastal area of Lima , Peru,” in The 10th International Workshop on Remote Sensing for Disaster Management, Japan, pp. CD-ROM, 2012.
-  B. Adriano, E. Mas, S. Koshimura, and Y. Fujii, “Tsunami Vulnerability Assessment of Buildings Using Remote Sensing Analysis and Numerical Modeling in Lima, Peru,” in Proceedings of International Sessions in Coastal Engineering, JSCE, Vol.4, Vol.4, pp. CD-ROM, 2013.
-  B. Adriano, E. Mas, and S. Koshimura, “Application of tsunami fragility functions for building damage assessment : two different approaches,” in The APRU symposium series on Multi-hazards around the Pacific Rim, pp. CD-ROM, 2013.
-  S. Hayashi, B. Adriano, E. Mas, and S. Koshimura, “Study of tsunami run-up model considering building failure,” in Annual Meeting of the Tohoku Branch Technology Research Conference, Japan Society of Civil Engineers. Hachinohe, Japan., pp. CD-ROM, Tohoku University, 2014.
-  E. Mas, B. Adriano, and S. Koshimura, “An Integrated Simulation of Tsunami Hazard and Human Evacuation in La Punta , Peru,” Journal of Disaster Research, Vol.8, No.2, pp. 285-295, 2012.
This article is published under a Creative Commons Attribution-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.