Paper:

# Scenarios of Earthquake and Tsunami Damage Probability in Callao Region, Peru Using Tsunami Fragility Functions

## Bruno Adriano^{*1}, Erick Mas^{*2}, Shunichi Koshimura^{*2},

Miguel Estrada^{*3}, and Cesar Jimenez^{*4,*5}

^{*1}Graduate School of Engineering, Tohoku University, Aoba 468-1-E301, Aramaki, Aoba-ku, Sendai 980-0845, Japan

^{*2}International Research Institute of Disaster Science (IRIDeS), Tohoku University, Japan

^{*3}Japan-Peru Center for Earthquake Engineering and Disaster Mitigation (CISMID), National University of Engineering, Lima, Perú

^{*4}Dirección de Hidrografía y Navegación, DHN, Callao, Perú

^{*5}Fenlab, Universidad Nacional Mayor de San Marcos (UNMSM), Lima, Perú

The implementation of adequate urban development and measures systems against tsunami impact in coastal communities is improved by understanding damage probability among building structures. Within the framework of the project Enhancement of Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation Technology in Peru (JST-JICA SATREPS), the authors analyze the damage probability of building structures due to tsunami impact in the Callao region of Peru. Two different tsunami hazard scenarios are assumed in assessing building damage probability. The first tsunami scenario represents the worse-case scenario of tsunami inundation that calculates the envelop of maximum inundation depth and flow velocity values from 12 probabilistic megathrust earthquake scenarios for central Peru. The second tsunami scenario corresponds to a historical tsunami event in this region. We apply a methodology for evaluating different levels of building damage by combining tsunami numerical results and tsunami fragility functions. Damage probability was analyzed in detail on a single building scale in the La Punta district. For the rest of Callao region, analysis was performed on a block-unit scale. Our results suggest that approximately 30% of submerged building may be washed away by tsunami inundation in the probabilistic hazard scenario and approximately 60% in the historical hazard scenario.

*J. Disaster Res.*, Vol.9, No.6, pp. 968-975, 2014.

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