Past Evaluation and Future Projection of Sea Level Rise Related to Climate Change Around  Japan

Sin-Iti Iwasaki; Wataru Sasaki; Tomonori Matsuura

doi:10.20965/jdr.2008.p0119

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JDR Vol.3 No.2 pp. 119-130

(2008)

doi: 10.20965/jdr.2008.p0119

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Past Evaluation and Future Projection of Sea Level Rise Related to Climate Change Around Japan

Sin-Iti Iwasaki, Wataru Sasaki, and Tomonori Matsuura

Storm, Flood and Landslide Research Department, National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention, 3-1 Tennodai, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-0006, Japan

Received:

September 26, 2023

Accepted:

October 25, 2023

Published:

April 1, 2008

Keywords:

sea level rise, sea surface temperature, crustal movement, global worming, sea level prediction

Abstract

Using new sea level data on 71 points on Japan’s coast during 1966-2003 in which crustal movement is eliminated from tide records, we evaluate long-term oceanic-origin sea levels and project sea level rises (SLR). We classify Japan’s coast into seven regions of about 100 km^2 by applying cluster analysis to the sea level data. For western Japan, we propose a linear regression model enabling us to predict sea levels based on sea surface temperature (SST). SLR are projected for the 21^st century using our linear regression model to SSTs of 10 coupled general circulation models (CGCMs), based on the SRES A1B scenario of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report. The mean SLR in western Japan in the 21^st century is 12 cm, almost the same as the SLR around Japan’s coast predicted dynamically by CGCMs. We found that the SLR predicted by our linear regression model is high in the western Japan, particularly at about 17 cm/century in western Kyushu.

Cite this article as:

S. Iwasaki, W. Sasaki, and T. Matsuura, “Past Evaluation and Future Projection of Sea Level Rise Related to Climate Change Around Japan,” J. Disaster Res., Vol.3 No.2, pp. 119-130, 2008.

Data files:

References

[1] Panel on Storm Surge Control Measures in Areas below Sea Level, “Future Storm Surge Control Measures in Areas below Sea Level,” p.17, 2006.
[2] IPCC, “Climate Change 2001, Synthesis Report,” Cambridge University Press, 2001.
[3] J. M. Gregory and J. Oerlemans, “Simulated future sea-level rise due to glacier melt based on regionally and seasonally resolved temperature change,” Nature, 391, pp. 474-476, 1998.
[4] J. E. Hansen, “Scientific reticence and sea level rise,” Environ. Res. Lett., 2, 2007.
[5] W. Munk, “Twentieth centuary sea level: An enigma,” PNAS, 99, pp. 6550-6555, 2002.
[6] S. Levitus, J. I. Antonov, J.Wang, T. L. Delworth, K.W. Dixon, and A. J. Broccoli, “Anthropogenic warming of earth’s climate system,” Science, 292, pp. 267-270, 2001.
[7] A. Sumi, “Simulation of global worming using high-resolution atmosphere ocean coupled model,” “How far is the global worming solved?,” K. Koike (Ed.), 2006 (in Japanese).
[8] J. Yoshimura and K. Oouchi, “Global worming and tropical storms — Simulations using general circulation models,” “Water-related disasters, climate variability and change; results of tropical storms in East Asia,” T. Matsuura and R. Kawamura (Eds.), Transworld Research Network, 2007.
[9] W. Sasaki and S. I. Iwasaki, “Wave climate change in the western North Pacific for summer — From past to future,” Water-related disasters, climate variability and change; results of tropical storms in East Asia, ed. T. Matsuura and R. Kawamura, Transworld Research Network, 2007.
[10] Japan Meteorological Agency, “First Chapter, Long-term change of oceans on the global worming, 1.2: Sea Level,” 2006 (in Japanese).
[11] S.-I. Iwasaki, T. Matsuura, and I. Watabe, “The relation between the trend of sea level excluding the effect of crustal movement and sea surface temperature around Honshu,” Ocean Research, 11, pp. 529-542, 2002 (in Japanese).
[12] J. M. Gregory, H. T. Banks, P. A. Stott, J. A. Lows, and M. D. Palmer, “Simulated and observed decadal variability in ocean heat content,” Geophys. Res. Lett. 31, L15312, 2004.
[13] M. Ishii, M. Kimoto, K. Sakamoto, and S.-I. Iwasaki, “Steric sea level changes estimated from historical ocean subsurface temperature and salinity analysis,” J. Oceanogr, 2006.
[14] T. Yasuda and K. Sakurai, “Interdecadal variability of the sea surface height around Japan,” Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L01605, 2006.
[15] C. Cabanes, A. Cazenave, and C. Le-Provost, “Sea level rise during past 40 years determined from Satellite and in Situ observations,” Science, 294, pp. 840-842, 2001.
[16] T. Kato and K. Tsumura, “Vertical land movement in Japan as deduced from Tidal record (1951-1978),” Bull. E.R.I., Vol.54, pp. 559-628, 1979 (in Japanese).
[17] S. J. Worley, S. D. Woodruff, R. W. Reynolds, S. J. Lubker, and N. Lott, “ICOADS Release 2.1 data and products,” Int. J. Climatol. (CLIMAR-II Special Issue), 25, pp. 823-842 (DOI: 10.1002/joc.1166), 2005.
[18] M. Ishii, A. Shoji, S. Sugimoto, and T. Matsuumoto, “Objective analyses of sea-surface temperature and marine meteorological variables for 20th Century using ICOADS and the Kobe collection,” Int. J. Climatol., 25, pp. 865-879, 2005.
[19] T. M. Smith and R. W. Reynolds, “Improved Extended Reconstruction of SST (1854-1997),” J. Climate, 17, pp. 2466-2477, 2004.
[20] J. C. Fyfe and O. A. Saenko, “Human-induced change in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current,” J. Climate, 18, pp. 3068-3073, 2005.
[21] Y. Maruyama, “Global worming prediction and energy environmental policy,” “How far is the global worming solved?,” K. Koike (Ed.), 2006 (in Japanese).
[22] H. Tanaka, N. Ishizaki, and N. Nohara, “Intercomparison of the intensities and trends of Hadley, Walker and Monsoon circulation in the global warming predictions,” SOLA., 2005 (submitted).
[23] H. Ueda, A. Iwai, K. Kuwako, and M. Hori, “Impact of anthropogenic forcing on the Asian summer monsoon as revealed by simulated 8 GCMs,” Geophys. Res. Lett., 2005 (submitted).

This article is published under a Creative Commons Attribution-NoDerivatives 4.0 Internationa License.

[1] [1] Panel on Storm Surge Control Measures in Areas below Sea Level, “Future Storm Surge Control Measures in Areas below Sea Level,” p.17, 2006.

[2] [2] IPCC, “Climate Change 2001, Synthesis Report,” Cambridge University Press, 2001.

[3] [3] J. M. Gregory and J. Oerlemans, “Simulated future sea-level rise due to glacier melt based on regionally and seasonally resolved temperature change,” Nature, 391, pp. 474-476, 1998.

[4] [4] J. E. Hansen, “Scientific reticence and sea level rise,” Environ. Res. Lett., 2, 2007.

[5] [5] W. Munk, “Twentieth centuary sea level: An enigma,” PNAS, 99, pp. 6550-6555, 2002.

[6] [6] S. Levitus, J. I. Antonov, J.Wang, T. L. Delworth, K.W. Dixon, and A. J. Broccoli, “Anthropogenic warming of earth’s climate system,” Science, 292, pp. 267-270, 2001.

[7] [7] A. Sumi, “Simulation of global worming using high-resolution atmosphere ocean coupled model,” “How far is the global worming solved?,” K. Koike (Ed.), 2006 (in Japanese).

[8] [8] J. Yoshimura and K. Oouchi, “Global worming and tropical storms — Simulations using general circulation models,” “Water-related disasters, climate variability and change; results of tropical storms in East Asia,” T. Matsuura and R. Kawamura (Eds.), Transworld Research Network, 2007.

[9] [9] W. Sasaki and S. I. Iwasaki, “Wave climate change in the western North Pacific for summer — From past to future,” Water-related disasters, climate variability and change; results of tropical storms in East Asia, ed. T. Matsuura and R. Kawamura, Transworld Research Network, 2007.

[10] [10] Japan Meteorological Agency, “First Chapter, Long-term change of oceans on the global worming, 1.2: Sea Level,” 2006 (in Japanese).

[11] [11] S.-I. Iwasaki, T. Matsuura, and I. Watabe, “The relation between the trend of sea level excluding the effect of crustal movement and sea surface temperature around Honshu,” Ocean Research, 11, pp. 529-542, 2002 (in Japanese).

[12] [12] J. M. Gregory, H. T. Banks, P. A. Stott, J. A. Lows, and M. D. Palmer, “Simulated and observed decadal variability in ocean heat content,” Geophys. Res. Lett. 31, L15312, 2004.

[13] [13] M. Ishii, M. Kimoto, K. Sakamoto, and S.-I. Iwasaki, “Steric sea level changes estimated from historical ocean subsurface temperature and salinity analysis,” J. Oceanogr, 2006.

[14] [14] T. Yasuda and K. Sakurai, “Interdecadal variability of the sea surface height around Japan,” Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L01605, 2006.

[15] [15] C. Cabanes, A. Cazenave, and C. Le-Provost, “Sea level rise during past 40 years determined from Satellite and in Situ observations,” Science, 294, pp. 840-842, 2001.

[16] [16] T. Kato and K. Tsumura, “Vertical land movement in Japan as deduced from Tidal record (1951-1978),” Bull. E.R.I., Vol.54, pp. 559-628, 1979 (in Japanese).

[17] [17] S. J. Worley, S. D. Woodruff, R. W. Reynolds, S. J. Lubker, and N. Lott, “ICOADS Release 2.1 data and products,” Int. J. Climatol. (CLIMAR-II Special Issue), 25, pp. 823-842 (DOI: 10.1002/joc.1166), 2005.

[18] [18] M. Ishii, A. Shoji, S. Sugimoto, and T. Matsuumoto, “Objective analyses of sea-surface temperature and marine meteorological variables for 20th Century using ICOADS and the Kobe collection,” Int. J. Climatol., 25, pp. 865-879, 2005.

[19] [19] T. M. Smith and R. W. Reynolds, “Improved Extended Reconstruction of SST (1854-1997),” J. Climate, 17, pp. 2466-2477, 2004.

[20] [20] J. C. Fyfe and O. A. Saenko, “Human-induced change in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current,” J. Climate, 18, pp. 3068-3073, 2005.

[21] [21] Y. Maruyama, “Global worming prediction and energy environmental policy,” “How far is the global worming solved?,” K. Koike (Ed.), 2006 (in Japanese).

[22] [22] H. Tanaka, N. Ishizaki, and N. Nohara, “Intercomparison of the intensities and trends of Hadley, Walker and Monsoon circulation in the global warming predictions,” SOLA., 2005 (submitted).

[23] [23] H. Ueda, A. Iwai, K. Kuwako, and M. Hori, “Impact of anthropogenic forcing on the Asian summer monsoon as revealed by simulated 8 GCMs,” Geophys. Res. Lett., 2005 (submitted).