Maximum Potential Intensity of Tropical Cyclones Derived from Numerical Experiments Using the Community Climate System Model (CCSM3)
Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry, 1646 Abiko, Chiba 270-1194, Japan
There is a theory for estimating the maximum potential intensity (MPI) of tropical cyclones (TCs) from large-scale thermodynamic environment. The present study investigates sea surface temperature (SST) and the vertical profile of upper-air temperature simulated using the Community Climate System Model (CCSM3) to assess possible near-future MPI changes focusing on the western North Pacific.
The MPI derived from the simulated thermodynamic environment for the present climate is generally reasonable in terms of geographical distribution and its relation to SST. Significant MPI changes in 2010 to 2029 relative to 1980 to 1999 are found in the tropics, where the central pressure fall increases by 5-7 hPa, or 6-8%, on average. Associated thermodynamic changes include SST warming of 0.6-0.7AC and amplification of upper tropospheric warming at a factor of two to three. This greater warming in the upper troposphere is important in suppressing a rapid increase in the MPI. Although the northward expansion of TC development area is marginal, greater thermodynamic change in the middle latitudes suggests an impact on the lifecycle of a TC moving into this region.
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