IJAT Vol.11 No.4 pp. 583-591
doi: 10.20965/ijat.2017.p0583


Development of Japan’s Photovoltaic Deployment Scenarios in 2030

Yusuke Kishita and Yasushi Umeda

Department of Precision Engineering, Graduate School of Engineering, The University of Tokyo
7-3-1 Hongo, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo 113-8656, Japan

Corresponding author

February 14, 2017
June 19, 2017
Online released:
June 29, 2017
July 5, 2017
sustainability, scenario design, renewable energy, photovoltaic panel, future uncertainty

There is a strong need to address climate change issues by mobilizing a variety of technologies, including renewable energy technologies. In this paper, we focus on photovoltaic (PV) technology because solar cells or PV panels are already popular in many countries, mainly incentivized by a feed-in tariff (FIT) program and low production cost. However, it is difficult to accurately predict future PV installation capacity for a region because of a variety of uncertainties, such as national energy policies and consumers’ lifestyles. Taking such uncertainties into account, this paper takes a scenario design approach to analyze future PV deployment, thereby helping to examine policy implications and offering appropriate actions. A case study of Japan’s PV deployment scenarios up to 2030 is presented here. Four distinct future situations are assumed, with particular focus on technological advancement and national share of nuclear energy. The results show that solar power generation in 2030 could account for 3.4%–7.4% of the national electricity demand.

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Last updated on Sep. 21, 2017