IJAT Vol.11 No.4 pp. 592-600
doi: 10.20965/ijat.2017.p0592


Scenario Analysis for Clean Energy Vehicles in UK Considering Introduction of Renewable Energy Sources

Hiroshi Nakamura and Masaru Nakano

Graduate School of System Design and Management, Keio University
4-1-1 Hiyoshi, Kohoku-ku, Yokohama, Kanagawa 223-8526, Japan

Corresponding author

December 20, 2016
June 7, 2017
Online released:
June 29, 2017
July 5, 2017
renewable energy source, clean energy vehicle, scenario analysis
For achieving a sustainable society, clean energy vehicles (CEVs), such as electric and fuel cell vehicles, can play a significant role in reducing CO2 pollution in the transport sector. Each type of CEV has certain characteristics: vehicle running range, Life Cycle CO2(LCCO2), cost, fuel efficiency, etc. Therefore, in order to accomplish CO2 reduction targets in the UK, this paper calculates optimized CEV portfolios by considering each CEV’s characteristics. The objective is to minimize a CEV system that includes running, vehicle manufacturing, and infrastructure costs. Constraints are defined by the vehicle sales number, vehicle price, energy price, etc. A CEV optimized portfolio is calculated for each year to provide ideas for determining future CEV policy for government and industries. Few conventional studies show optimized CEV portfolios by considering mixed rates of renewable energy sources (RES). However, they did employ one case of RES introduction rate, but this study employs many RES introduction scenarios. Results suggest that introducing a high RES date contributes to reducing EV’s LCCO2 dramatically and reaching the UK target without great reduction of GVs and DVs. In the scenario of high RES introduction rate, differences are widening among EVs, GVs, and DVs in their amounts of CO2 pollution.
Cite this article as:
H. Nakamura and M. Nakano, “Scenario Analysis for Clean Energy Vehicles in UK Considering Introduction of Renewable Energy Sources,” Int. J. Automation Technol., Vol.11 No.4, pp. 592-600, 2017.
Data files:
  1. [1] The Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders, “New car CO2 report 2013 the 12th report,”,2013 [accessed Dec. 3, 2016]
  2. [2] T. Taguchi, K. Matsumoto, et al., “Route Search and Evaluation Method Including Charging Plan for Electric Vehicles,” Int. J. Automation Technol., Vol.8, No.5, pp. 698-704, 2014.
  3. [3] M. Matsuda and F. Kimura, “Configuration of the Digital Eco-Factory for Green Production,” Int. J. Automation Technol., Vol.6, No.3, pp. 289-295, 2012.
  4. [4] International Energy Agency, “Energy Technology Perspectives 2016,” 2016.
  5. [5] M. Ichinohe and E. Endo, “Analysis of the vehicle mix in passenger-car in Japan for CO2 emissions reduction by a MARKAL model,” Applied Energy, Vol.83, pp. 1047-1061, 2006.
  6. [6] H. Lund and W. Kempton, “Integration of renewable energy into the transport and electricity sectors thorough V2G,” Energy Policy, Vol.36, Issue.9, pp. 3578-3587, 2008.
  7. [7] W. McDowall and M. Eames, “Forecasts, Scenarios, visions backcasts and roadmaps to the hydrogen economy: A review of the hydrogen future literature,” Vol.34, Issue 11, pp. 1236-1250, 2006.
  8. [8] Y. Kishita and E. Kunii, “Scenario Analysis of Global Resource Circulation with Traceability Index Targeting Sustainable Manufacturing,” Int. J. Automation Technol., Vol.3, No.1, pp. 3-10, 2009.
  9. [9] T. Nonaka and M. Nakano, “Carbon Taxation Using LCCO2 and LCC for Clean Energy Vehicles,” Trans. of the Japan Society of Mechanical Engineers, Series C, Vol.77, No.783, pp. 4024-4033, 2011.
  10. [10] Y. Arimori and M. Nakano, “Portfolio optimization for clean energy vehicles in Japan,” Nihon Kikai Gakkai Ronbunshu, C Hen/Trans. of the Japan Society of Mechanical Engineers, Part C, Vol.78, No.791, pp. 2571-2582, 2012.
  11. [11] K. Kato, T. Nonaka, and M. Nakano, “Optimization model for global portfolio of clean energy vehicles considering metal resource,” Nihon Kikai Gakkai Ronbunshu, C Hen/Trans. of the Japan Society of Mechanical Engineers, Part C, Vol.79, No.797, pp. 77-89, 2013.
  12. [12] K. Romejko and M. Nakano, “Portfolio analysis of alternative fuel vehicles considering technological advancement, energy security and policy,” J. of Cleaner Production, Part 1, Vol.142, pp. 39-49 2017.
  13. [13] J. Osawa and M. Nakano, “The Impact of the Popularization of Clean Energy Vehicle on Employment,” Procedia CIRP, Vol.47, pp. 478-482, 2016.
  14. [14] Office for Budget Responsibility, “Economic and fiscal outlook,” cm8966, 2014.
  15. [15] J. Osawa and M. Nakano, “A model of the economic ripple effect caused by the spread of clean energy vehicles,” Nihon Kikai Gakkai, Vol.81, No.823, 2015.
  16. [16] UK Department of Energy & Climate Change, “2013 UK Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Final Figures,” 2015.
  17. [17] UK Department for Transport, “Road Transport Forecasts 2013 Results from the Department for Transport’s National Transport Model, “National transport model results, regarding traffic growth, vehicle tailpipe emissions, congestion and journey times,” 2013.
  18. [18] Office for Low Emission Vehicles, “Driving the Future Today–A strategy for ultra low emission vehicles in the UK,”,2013 [accessed December 3, 2016]
  19. [19] McKinsey & Company et al., “A portfolio of power-trains for Europe: a fact-based analysis The role of Battery Electric Vehicles, Plug-in Hybrids and Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles,” 2010.
  20. [20] UK Department for Transport, “Personal travel factsheet commuting and business travel,”,2011 [accessed December 3, 2016]
  21. [21] UK Department for Transport, “National travel survey: England 2013,” 2014.
  22. [22] UK Department for Transport, “Annual mileage of 4-wheeled cars by ownership and trip purpose: England, 2002 to 2013,” Table NTS0901, 2014.
  23. [23] Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders, “Automotive Sustainability Report 15th edition – 2013 data,”,2014 [accessed December 3, 2016]

*This site is desgined based on HTML5 and CSS3 for modern browsers, e.g. Chrome, Firefox, Safari, Edge, Opera.

Last updated on May. 10, 2024