JDR Vol.17 No.6 pp. 1059-1067
doi: 10.20965/jdr.2022.p1059

Survey Report:

Successive Occurrence of Large Earthquakes Along the Kuril Trench

Tetsuo Hashimoto*,† and Takashi Yokota**

*National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Resilience (NIED)
3-1 Tennodai, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-0006, Japan

Corresponding author

**Aichi Institute of Technology, Toyota, Japan

October 13, 2021
April 13, 2022
October 1, 2022
successive occurrence of earthquakes, Kuril Trench, disaster prevention

Large earthquakes have repeatedly occurred from Hokkaido to the Kamchatka Peninsula along the Kuril Trench. First, we confirmed the successive occurrence of large earthquakes of similar magnitude in nearby regions and within a short time interval using earthquake catalogs issued by international organizations. The searching criteria was whether a succeeding earthquake (Mw ≥ 7.75) had occurred within 500 km and 3 years of a preceding earthquake (Mw ≥ 7.70) in the period between 1890 and 2014. The pairs of successively occurring earthquakes were the June 1893 and March 1894 earthquakes, the September and November 1918 earthquakes, the October 1963 earthquakes, the October 1994 and December 1995 earthquakes, and the November 2006 and January 2007 earthquakes. These 5 pairs among the 21 large earthquakes were identified the successively occurring large earthquakes. Next, we tried to relocate the epicenters of the 1918 earthquakes because their epicenters had been changed in the version of the earthquake catalog referenced. We re-read the arrival times of the P and S waves from the seismograms of Japan Meteorological Agency and estimated the epicenters for the 1918 earthquakes from S-P times. The epicenters were a relative offset of about 160 km and the September event was near the epicenter of the 2006 Kuril earthquake.

Cite this article as:
T. Hashimoto and T. Yokota, “Successive Occurrence of Large Earthquakes Along the Kuril Trench,” J. Disaster Res., Vol.17 No.6, pp. 1059-1067, 2022.
Data files:
  1. [1] Y. Tanioka, K. Satake, and K. Hirata, “Recurrence of recent large earthquakes along the southernmost Kurile-Kamchatka subduction zone,” J. Eichelberger, E. Gordeev, P. Izbekov, M. Kasahara, and J. Lees (Eds.), “Volcanism and subduction: The Kamchatka region (Geophysical Monograph Series, Vol.172),” pp. 145-152, John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 2007.
  2. [2] J. M. Johnson and K. Satake, “Asperity distribution of the 1952 great Kamchatka earthquake and its relation to future earthquake potential in Kamchatka,” Pure Appl. Geophys., Vol.154, No.3, pp. 541-553, 1999.
  3. [3] The Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion, “Evaluation of occurrence potentials of subduction-zone earthquakes along the Kuril trench,” 2017, (in Japanese) [accessed July 18, 2021]
  4. [4] T. Lay and H. Kanamori, “Earthquake doublets in the Solomon Islands,” Phys. Earth Planet. Inter., Vol.21, No.4, pp. 283-304, 1980.
  5. [5] Y. Y. Kagan and D. D. Jackson, “Worldwide doublets of large shallow earthquakes,” Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., Vol.89, No.5, pp. 1147-1155, 1999.
  6. [6] P. Bird, “An updated digital model of plate boundaries,” Geochem. Geophys. Geosystems, Vol.4, No.3, Article No.1027, doi: 10.1029/2001GC000252, 2003.
  7. [7] P. Albini, R. M. W. Musson, A. Rovida, M. Locati, A. A. Gomez Capera, and D. Viganò, “The global earthquake history,” Earthq. Spectra, Vol.30, No.2, pp. 607-624, doi: 10.1193/122013EQS297, 2014.
  8. [8] D. A. Storchak, D. Di Giacomo, I. Bondár, E. R. Engdahl, J. Harris, W. H. K. Lee, A. Villaseñor, and P. Bormann, “Public release of the ISC-GEM Global Instrumental Earthquake Catalogue (1900–2009),” Seismol. Res. Lett., Vol.84, No.5, pp 810-815, doi: 10.1785/0220130034, 2013.
  9. [9] D. A. Storchak, D. Di Giacomo, E. R. Engdahl, J. Harris, I. Bondár, W. H. K. Lee, P. Bormann, and A. Villaseñor, “The ISC-GEM Global Instrumental Earthquake Catalogue (1900–2009): Introduction,” Phys. Earth Planet. Inter., Vol.239, pp. 48-63, doi: 10.1016/j.pepi.2014.06.009, 2015.
  10. [10] Cabinet Office, “Brief report of subcommittee of evaluation criteria of abnormal phenomena along the Nankai trough for disaster prevention,” 2018, [accessed July 18, 2021]
  11. [11] S. Annoura, K. Takeda, and K. Maeda, “Statistical features of interval time distribution of succeeding large earthquakes,” Q. J. Seismol., Vol.82, Article No.1, 2018 (in Japanese).
  12. [12] T. Lay, H. Kanamori, C. J. Ammon, A. R. Hutko, K. Furlong, and L. Rivera, “The 2006–2007 Kuril Islands great earthquake sequence,” J. Geophys. Res.: Solid Earth, Vol.114, No.B11, Article No.B11308, doi: 10.1029/2008JB006280, 2009.
  13. [13] K. Katsumata, M. Ichiyanagi, M. Miwa, M. Kasahara, and H. Miyamachi, “Aftershock distribution of the October 4, 1994 Mw8.3 Kurile Islands Earthquake determined by a local seismic network in Hokkaido, Japan,” Geophys. Res. Lett., Vol.22, No.11, pp. 1321-1324, 1995.
  14. [14] K. Abe, “Tsunami and mechanism of great earthquakes,” Phys. Earth Planet. Inter., Vol.7, No.2, pp. 143-153, 1973.
  15. [15] H. Takahashi, T. Maeda, and M. Kasahara, “Characteristics of great earthquakes occurring in the central Kuril Islands,” Geophys. Bull. Hokkaido Univ., No.72, pp. 399-410, 2009 (in Japanese).
  16. [16] T. Hatori, “Tsunami sources in Hokkaido and southern Kuril regions,” Bull. Earthq. Res. Inst. Univ. Tokyo, Vol.49, pp. 63-75, 1971.
  17. [17] T. Utsu, “Large earthquakes near Hokkaido and the expectancy of the occurrence of a large earthquake off Nemuro,” Rep. Coord. Comm. Earthq. Predict., Vol.7, pp. 7-13, 1972 (in Japanese).
  18. [18] Y. Yamanaka and M. Kikuchi, “Source process of the recurrent Tokachi-oki earthquake on September 26, 2003, inferred from teleseismic body waves,” Earth Planets Space, Vol.55, No.12, pp. e21-e24, 2003.
  19. [19] The Headquaters for Earthquake Research Promotion, (in Japanese) [accessed July 18, 2021]
  20. [20] G. A. Ichinose, H. K. Thio, P. G. Somerville, T. Sato, and T. Ishii, “Rupture process of the 1944 Tonankai earthquake (Ms 8.1) from the inversion of teleseismic and regional seismograms,” J. Geophys. Res.: Solid Earth, Vol.108, No.B10, Article No.2497, doi: 10.1029/2003JB002393, 2003.
  21. [21] S. Murotani, K. Shimazaki, and K. Koketsu, “Rupture process of the 1946 Nankai earthquake estimated using seismic waveforms and geodetic data,” J. Geophys. Res.: Solid Earth, Vol.120, No.8, pp. 5677-5692, doi: 10.1002/2014JB011676, 2015.
  22. [22] Y. Ogata, “Significant improvements of the space-times ETAS model for forecasting of accurate baseline seismicity,” Earth Planets Space, Vol.63, No.3, pp. 217-229, doi: 10.5047/eps.2010.09.001, 2011.
  23. [23] Japan Meteorological Agency, “Geophysical Review,” No.226, pp. 257-259, 1918 (in Japanese).
  24. [24] Japan Meteorological Agency, “Geophysical Review,” No.228, pp. 308-309, 1918 (in Japanese).
  25. [25] Japan Meteorological Agency, “History of seismological observations in JMA networks,” Q. J. Seismol., Vol.65, Extra Issue, 401pp., 2002 (in Japanese).
  26. [26] Central Meteorological Observatory, “Seismological Observation manual,” doi: 10.11501/952305, 1915 (in Japanese).
  27. [27] O. Hamamatsu, “Historical table of seismographs for routine observations in J.M.A. network,” Zisin (J. Seismol. Soc. Jpn., 2nd Ser.), Vol.19, No.4, pp. 286-305, 1966 (in Japanese).
  28. [28] Association for the Development of Earthquake Prediction, “HERP data retrieval system of JMA analog seismograms,” [accessed April 3, 2020]
  29. [29] H. Ueno, S. Hatakeyama, T. Aketagawa, J. Funasaki, and N. Hamada, “Improvement of hypocenter determination procedures in the Japan Meteorological Agency,” Q. J. Seismol., Vol.65, pp. 123-134, 2002 (in Japanese).
  30. [30] T. Vincenty, “Direct and inverse solutions of geodesics on the ellipsoid with application of nested equations,” Surv. Rev., Vol.23, No.176, pp. 88-93, 1975.
  31. [31] International Seismological Centre, On-line Bulletin, [accessed September 11, 2017]
  32. [32] T. Hatori, “Distribution of cumulative tsunami energy from Kamchatka to east Hokkaido,” Zisin (J. Seismol. Soc. Jpn., 2nd Ser.), Vol.52, No.3, pp. 361-368, 1999.
  33. [33] K. Ioki and Y. Tanioka, “Slip distribution of the 1963 Great Kurile Earthquake estimated from tsunami waveforms,” Pure Appl. Geophys., Vol.168, No.6, pp. 1045-1052, doi: 10.1007/s00024-010-0219-5, 2011.
  34. [34] P. Wessel and J. F. Luis, “The GMT/MATLAB Toolbox,” Geochem. Geophys. Geosystems, Vol.18, No.2, pp. 811-823, 2017.

*This site is desgined based on HTML5 and CSS3 for modern browsers, e.g. Chrome, Firefox, Safari, Edge, Opera.

Last updated on Jul. 19, 2024