Seismic Hazard in Syria Based on Completeness Analysis and Assessment
Ahmed Alhourani*,†, Junji Kiyono*, Aiko Furukawa*, and Hussam Eldein Zaineh**
*Department of Urban Management, Graduate school of Engineering, Kyoto University
Katsura Campus, C1 Cluster, Department of Urban Management, Room 137, Kyoto 615-8540, Japan
**Department of Environmental Science and Engineering, Tokyo Institute of Technology, Tokyo, Japan
An important criterion for conducting an accurate seismic hazard analysis and assessment is the compiling of a representative and completehistorical seismic catalog for the region of interest. This paper describes the procedure to assemble a full earthquake events catalog for Syria from the years 37 AD to 2011 AD. The procedure starts with improving the quality of the compiled full catalog by eliminating manmade events by choosing a cutoff magnitude of 2.5; and by eliminating the potential aftershocks and afforeshcks using an appropriate declustering method. To examine the quality of the resultant seismic catalog (after eliminating artificial, aftershock and afforeshok earthquake) the magnitude of completeness (MC) was calculated and the distribution of MC with time showed an overall good quality of the adopted complete catalog. The adopted complete seismic catalog is then used to generate peak ground acceleration hazard maps for 475, 1000 and 2475 years return periods. The study also concludes that to accommodate for the quiescence of the DSFS and potential undetected buildup and release of seismic energy it is important to introduce 1000 and 2475 years return periods seismic hazard maps especially in the design of important structures.
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