Ensemble Flood Forecasting of Typhoons Talas and Roke at Hiyoshi Dam Basin
Tomoki Ushiyama*,†, Takahiro Sayama**, and Yoichi Iwami*
*International Centre for Water Hazard and Risk Management, Public Works Research Institute
1-6 Minamihra, Tsukuba, Japan
**Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan
In order to be able to issue flood warnings not hours but days in advance, numerical weather prediction (NWP) is essential to the forecasting of flood-producing rainfall. The regional ensemble prediction system (EPS), advanced NWP on a local scale, has a high potential to improve flood forecasting through the quantitative prediction of precipitation. In this study, the predictability of floods using the ensemble flood forecasting system, which is composed of regional EPS and a distributed hydrological model, was investigated. Two flood events which took place in a small basin in Japan in 2010 and which were caused by typhoons Talas and Roke were examined. As the forecasting system predicted the probability of flood occurrence at least 24 h beforehand in the case of both typhoons, these forecasts were better than deterministic forecasts. However, the system underestimated the peak of the flooding in the typhoon Roke event, and it was too early in its prediction of the appearance of the peak of the flooding in the Talas event. Although the system has its limitations, it has proved to have the potential to produce early flood warnings.
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