JDR Vol.11 No.5 pp. 870-880
doi: 10.20965/jdr.2016.p0870


Proposal of Elements for Creating Scenarios for Those Needing Support During National Disasters

Keiko Tamura*,† and Munenari Inoguchi**

*Risk Management Office, Headquarters for Risk Management, Niigata University
8050 Ikarashii Ninocho, Nishi-ku, Niigata 950-2181, Japan

Corresponding author,

**Faculty of Informatics, Shizuoka University, Hamamatsu, Japan

April 5, 2016
September 30, 2016
Online released:
October 3, 2016
October 1, 2016
special needs, national disaster, worst case scenario, Tokyo Inland Earthquake
This study proposes elements for creating scenarios covering those needing support during a natural disaster, comprising: 1) coefficients for scenarios concerning those needing support during a disaster, and 2) quantitative damage estimation cases related to facilities for those needing support during a disaster. These elements have not been incorporated into conventional damage estimation. The scenarios were applied to Tokyo, which is assumed to be an area affected by earthquakes occurring directly beneath the Tokyo Metropolitan Area, to establish a support system and implement map training.
Cite this article as:
K. Tamura and M. Inoguchi, “Proposal of Elements for Creating Scenarios for Those Needing Support During National Disasters,” J. Disaster Res., Vol.11 No.5, pp. 870-880, 2016.
Data files:
  1. [1] Y. Honkawa, “Record: Casualties categolized by male/female and ages in the Great East Japan Earthquake Disaster,” [accessed Apr. 5, 2016]
  2. [2] Cabinet Office, “Disaster prevention white paper in 2014 fisical year,” 2014 (in Japanese).
  3. [3] Fire and Disaster Management Agency, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, “Report of the 2011 Off the Pacific Coast of Tohoku Earthquake (the Great East Japan Earthquake Disaster): 153th report,” 2016 (in Japanese).
  4. [4] Reconstruction Agency, “Number of disaster-related death in the Great East Japan Earthquake Disaster,” 2012 (Japanese).
  5. [5] Working group of disaster-related death, Reconstruction Agency, “Report of disaster-related death in the Great East Japan Earthquake Disaster,” 2016 (in Japanese).
  6. [6] P. Schwartz, “The Art of the Long View: Planning for the Future in an Uncertain World,” (Japanese tranlation version; translated by K. Taomoto and A. Ikeda) 2010 (in Japanese).
  7. [7] K. van der Heiden, “Scenario Planning,” (Japanese tranlation version; translated by Globis, Co. Ltd.), DIAMOND, Inc. , 2001 (in Japanese).
  8. [8] M. Nishimura, “Scenario thinking,” DIAMOND, Inc., 2003 (in Japanese).
  9. [9] K. Tamuar, H. Hayashi, and R. Kimura, “Establishing scenario planning method for disaster prevension measures – Study on disaster prevention planing in Higashiyama ward, Kyoto city,” Symposium on Earthquake Engineering, Proceedings, Vol.27, p. 276, 2013 (in Japanese).
  10. [10] S. Nagamatsu and H. Hayashi, “Economic Recovery Scenario Planning for a Tokyo Inland Earthquake,” J. Disaster Res., Vol.7, No.2, pp. 203-214, 2012.
  11. [11] D. Alexander, “Scenario methodology for teaching principles of emergency management, Disaster Prevention and Management,” An International Journal, Vol.9, No.2, pp. 89-97, 2000.
  12. [12] Cabinet Office, “Elderly society: 2013 fisical year White paper,” 2013 (in Japanese).
  13. [13] Institute of Gerontology, The University of Tokyo, “Text book of elderly society made by the University of Tokyo,” Benesse Co., 2013 (in Japanese).
  14. [14] H. Akiyama, “Platinum concept handbook,”, [accessed Apr. 5, 2016]
  15. [15] Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, “Statistical analysis of elderly persons (over 65 year old) in Japan,” Statistics Topics, No.84, 2016 (in Japanese).
  16. [16] Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, “Statistics of numbers of house hold and numbers of person in it,” overview of Comprehensive Survey of Living Conditions in 2009, 2014 (in Japanese).
  17. [17] NHK Broadcasting Culture Research Institute, “Report on survey of living hours in Japan,” 2015 (in Japanese).
  18. [18] S. Suzuki, H. Hayashi, and M. Hosokawa, “Development of Urban Resilience GeoPortal Online for the Better Understanding of Disaster Scenarios,” J. Disaster Reseach, Vol.9, p. 128, 2008.
  19. [19] S. Nagata, K. Kageyama, and K. Yamamoto, “An Emergency Restoration Model for Water Supply Network Damage due to Earthquakes,” Vol.3, p. 390, J. Disaster Res., 2008.
  20. [20] N. Nojima and H. Kato, “ Modification and Validation of an Assessment Model of Post-Earthquake Lifeline Serviceability Based on the Great East Japan Earthquake Disaster,” Vol.9, p. 108, J. Disaster Res., 2014.

*This site is desgined based on HTML5 and CSS3 for modern browsers, e.g. Chrome, Firefox, Safari, Edge, Opera.

Last updated on Apr. 19, 2024