JDR Vol.11 No.2 pp. 188-197
doi: 10.20965/jdr.2016.p0188


Modeling Human Behavior of Local Residents in the Aftermath of a Large Earthquake – Wide-Area Evacuation, Rescue and Firefighting in Densely Built-Up Wooden Residential Areas

Takuya Oki and Toshihiro Osaragi

Tokyo Institute of Technology
2-12-1-W8-10, O-okayama, Meguro-ku, Tokyo 152-8552, Japan

September 30, 2015
December 10, 2015
Online released:
March 18, 2016
March 1, 2016
wide-area evacuation, rescue activities, firefighting activities, large earthquake, densely built-up wooden residential area

It is very important in disaster prevention planning to estimate the level of human damage after large earthquakes under various scenarios that takes into account the day of week, the time of the disaster, weather conditions, earthquake intensity, etc. There have been many previous studies based on the spatial characteristics of urban areas about evaluating protection against fires, evacuation risks, and the safety of evacuation routes to designated areas. However, no study so far has integrated models of property damage (building collapse, fire spread, and street blockage) and human behavior (rescue activities, firefighting activities, and wide-area evacuation behavior), and carries out simulations in order to analyze human damage in detail. In this paper, we present a survey of previous studies of the methods of evaluating urban-area characteristics, rescue and firefighting activities, and wide-area evacuation, all of which have been discussed as separate issues. We summarize the findings within the respective fields, their methods of evaluation and modeling, and identify their issues. Based on this survey, we point out that the construction of an integrated simulation model requires six important activities. They are to: 1) carry out evaluations on a microscopic scale at the block or street level; 2) use an evaluation index that allows a direct grasp of the expected level of human damage; 3) take into consideration many detailed and concrete disaster scenarios; 4) take into consideration the interactions among rescue participants, firefighting participants and wide-area evacuees, along with the effects of property damage; 5) incorporate the concept of time; and 6) set up comparative scenarios that allow the quantitative evaluation of the effects of various measures or policies. Therefore, it is necessary to construct a model based on the concept of multi-agent simulation (MAS).

Cite this article as:
T. Oki and T. Osaragi, “Modeling Human Behavior of Local Residents in the Aftermath of a Large Earthquake – Wide-Area Evacuation, Rescue and Firefighting in Densely Built-Up Wooden Residential Areas,” J. Disaster Res., Vol.11, No.2, pp. 188-197, 2016.
Data files:
  1. [1]  Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport, and Tourism, “Improvement measures in densely built-up urban areas that are at risk of large-scale fires in the event of earthquakes, etc., and should be given priority for improvement,” Press release, 2007 (in Japanese), .html [accessed Feb. 17, 2011]
  2. [2]  Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport, and Tourism, “Basic plan for Housing,” 2011 (in Japanese).
  3. [3]  Bureau of Urban Development Tokyo Metropolitan Government, “10-year project to fireproof densely built-up wooden residential areas” (in Japanese), /mokumitu/index.html [accessed Sep. 9, 2015]
  4. [4]  Urban Renovation Headquarters, “Urgent improvement of high-density residential areas – Further efforts to solve high-priority densely built-up urban areas –,” The 12th urban renaissance project, 2011 (in Japanese), /kettei.html [accessed Feb. 17, 2011]
  5. [5]  Japan Institute of Country-ology and Engineering, “General Technology Development Project of Ministry of Construction: Measures for preventing urban fires (Report),” 1983 (in Japanese).
  6. [6]  Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport, and Tourism, “General Technology Development Project of MLIT: Development of technology of improving building and infrastructure for creating sustainable society and secure environment,” Report on development of technology of evaluation and measures for disaster prevention in town development, 2003 (in Japanese).
  7. [7]  Bureau of Urban Development Tokyo Metropolitan Government, “The Seventh Community Earthquake Risk Assessment Study,” 2013 (in Japanese), /bosai/chousatextunderscore 6/download/kikendo.pdf [accessed Sep. 18, 2013]
  8. [8]  Tokyo Fire Department, “The nineth survey on the situation of urban areas,” 2015 (in Japanese).
  9. [9]  T. Kugai and T. Kato, “The structure of disaster mitigation performance of road network from the viewpoint of road blockage: The basic study on the evaluation of disaster mitigation performance of the local area road network based on percolation theory,” J. of Archt. and Plann., Vol. 72, No.615, pp. 113-120, 2007 (in Japanese).
  10. [10]  F. Ichikawa, T. Sakata, and T. Yoshikawa, “An analysis of accessibility to spaces for disaster refuge considering danger of street-blockades caused by collapse of buildings on evacuation routes,” Theory and Appl. of GIS, Vol.12, No.1, pp. 47-56, 2004 (in Japanese).
  11. [11]  H. Takematsu, T. Suzuki, and E. Itoigawa, “Evaluating evacuation vulnerability considering the risk of fire in large earthquake,” J. of the City Plann. Institute of Japan, Vo. 43, No.3, pp. 25-30, 2008 (in Japanese).
  12. [12]  A. Noda, M. Ichikawa, Y. Arakawa, and Y. Mano, “A case of object street district caught from improvement technique in Ichidera-Kototoi area: Improvement technique of alley net in densely populated wooden building districts as escape route1,” Summ. of Technical Papers of Annual Meeting Architectural Institute of Japan, F-1, pp. 851-852, 2011 (in Japanese).
  13. [13]  Y. Iijima, K. Muramatsu, A. Noda, and Y. Mano, “The evaluation of risk in the evacuation routes in case of emergency in crowded residential area with wooden structures,” Summ. of Technical Papers of Annual Meeting Architectural Institute of Japan, F-1, pp. 503-504, 2009 (in Japanese).
  14. [14]  R. O. Ibrahim, S. Yoshida, and S. Sadohara, “An application of GIS to evaluate safe evacuation routes based on fire risk on proximate areas to roadsides,” Papers and Proc. of the Geographic Information Systems Association, Vol.18, pp. 155-158, 2009 (in Japanese).
  15. [15]  Y. Shimura and K. Yamamoto, “Method of searching for earthquake disaster evacuation routes using multi-objective GA and GIS,” J. of Geographic Information System, Vol.6, No.5, pp. 492-525, 2014.
  16. [16]  Y. Kuwata and S. Takada, “Rescue ability for earthquake casuality during the 1995 Kobe Earthquake,” Report of Research Center for Urban Safety and Security Kobe University 4, pp. 215-220, 2000.
  17. [17]  H. Murakami, T. Takemoto, and K. Sakamoto, “Study of search and rescue operations in the 1995 Hanshin-Awaji earthquake: Analysis of labor work in relation with building types,” Proc. of the 12th World Conf. on Earthquake Eng., 0272, pp. 1-8, 2000.
  18. [18]  N. Iwasaki, “Role and functions of local communities in earthquake rescue, shelter administration and reconstruction,” Int. J. of Japanese Sociology, Vol.9, No.1, pp. 111-119, 2000.
  19. [19]  S. Tadokoro, T. Takamori, K. Osuka, and S. Tsurutani, “Investigation report of the rescue problem at Hanshin-Awaji earthquake in Kobe,” Intelligent Robots and Systems, 2000 (IROS 2000), Proc. 2000 IEEE/RSJ Int. Conf. on. Vol.3. IEEE, 2000.
  20. [20]  S. Tadokoro, H. Kitano, T. Takahashi, I. Noda, H. Matsubara et al., “The robocup-rescue project: A robotic approach to the disaster mitigation problem.” Robotics and Automation, 2000. Proc.. ICRA’00. IEEE Int. Conf. on. Vol.4. IEEE, 2000.
  21. [21]  T. Takahashi, “Agent-based disaster simulation evaluation and its probability model interpretation,” Proc. of ISCRAM, 2007.
  22. [22]  K. Arai, T. X. Sang, and N. T. Uyen, “Task allocation model for rescue disabled persons in disaster area with help of volunteers,” simulation, Vol.1, No.4, 2012.
  23. [23]  B. L’opez, S. Suárez, and J. L. De la Rosa, “Task allocation in rescue operations using combinatorial auctions,” Artificial Intelligence Research and Development, Vol.100, pp. 233-243, 2003.
  24. [24]  T. Furuya and S. Sadohara, “Modeling and simulation of rescue activity by the local residents in the seismic disaster,” ESRI Int. User Conf., 2004.
  25. [25]  A. Tani, T. Yamamura, Y. Waridashi, H. Kawamura, and A. Takizawa, “Simulation on rescue in case of earthquake disaster by multi-agent system,” Proc., 13th World Conf. on Earthquake Eng., 2004.
  26. [26]  R. Ueda, K. Seo, and K. Motoki, “A simulation of rescue activity for weak people in disaster during post-earthquake fire focusing on local disaster mitigation: A case study at a densely-populated wooden district in Asagaya and Koenji, Suginami, Tokyo,” J. of Archit. and Plann., Vol.72, No.622, pp. 137-144, 2007 (in Japanese).
  27. [27]  Japan Association for Fire Science and Engineering, “Survey report on fires in the 1995 Hyogo-ken Nanbu Earthquake,” 1996 (in Japanese).
  28. [28]  Fire Prevention Committee of Tokyo Fire Department, “Earthquake measures that should be immediately taken to achieve disaster mitigation plans in high-density wooden residential areas,” 2011 (in Japanese).
  29. [29]  Fire Prevention Committee of Tokyo Fire Department, “Measures to reduce human damage from fires after earthquakes,” 2015 (in Japanese).
  30. [30]  A. Kanai and H. Kaji, “Evaluating system for the fire fighting ability of community organization for disaster prevention,” J. of Archit., Plann., Vol.67, No.552, pp. 207-213, 2002 (in Japanese).
  31. [31]  Y. Gohnai, A. Ohgai, and K. Watanabe, “A simulation model development of firefightingactivity by community residents against coseismic firespread using multi-agent system: As a support tool for community-based disaster prevention planning,” DDSS2008, 2008.
  32. [32]  Fire and Disaster Management Agency, “Survey report on establishment of action frameworks, etc. of voluntary disaster prevention organizations,” 1998 (in Japanese).
  33. [33]  K. Toriyama and E. Itoigawa, “A study on the effective staff allocation for the bucket relay against post-earthquake fire by the residents,” J. of Soc. Safety Sc., Vol.9, pp. 209-216, 2007 (in Japanese).
  34. [34]  D. Helbing, I. Farkas, and T. Vicsek, “Simulating dynamical features of escape panic,” Nature, Vol.407, pp. 487-490, 2000.
  35. [35]  J. van den Berg, M. Lin, and D. Manocha, “Reciprocal velocity obstacles for real-time multi-agent navigation,” Proc. IEEE Int. Conf. on Robotics and Automation – ICRA’08, pp. 1928-1935, 2008.
  36. [36]  M. Hori, H. Miyajima, Y. Inukai, and K. Oguni, “Agent simulation for prediction of post-earthquake mass evacuation,” J. of Japan Soc. of Civil Eng., Ser. A1 (Structural Engineering & Earthquake Engineering (SE/EE)) Vol.64, No.4, pp. 1017-1036, 2008 (in Japanese).
  37. [37]  K. Yasufuku, “Scalable evacuation simulation and visualization using GPU computing,” Pedestrian and Evacuation Dynamics 2012, Springer International Publishing, pp. 1365-1373, 2014.
  38. [38]  K. Yasufuku, “Analysis of crowd walking using evacuation behavior framework and application to evacuation safety verification,” J. Archit. Plann. Vol.75, No.655, pp. 2081-2088, 2010 (in Japanese).
  39. [39]  T. Nishino, T. Tanaka, and S. Tsuburaya, “Development and validation of a potential-based model for city evacuation in post-earthquake fires,” Earthquake Spectra, Vol.29, No.3, pp. 911-936, 2013.
  40. [40]  T. Nishino, S. Tsuburaya, K. Himoto, and T. Tanaka, “A study on the estimation of the evacuation behaviors of Tokyo City residents in the Kanto Earthquake Fire,” Fire Safety Sc., Proc. of the 9th Int. Symp., pp. 453-464, 2008.
  41. [41]  Y. Muraki and H. Kanoh, “The effectiveness of communication on wide area simulation of disaster evacuation using multiagent model,” IPSJ SIG Notes 2004(130(2004-MPS-052)), pp. 69-72, 2004 (in Japanese).
  42. [42]  Y. Mabuchi, K. Seo, K. Motoki, and R. Ueda, “An evacuation simulation from spreading fire after an earthquake in the area densely crowded with wooden houses,” J. of Soc. Safety Science, Vol.10, pp. 409-415, 2008 (in Japanese).
  43. [43]  T.Osaragi, T. Morisawa, and T. Oki, “Simulation model of evacuation behavior following a large-scale earthquake that takes into account various attributes of residents and transient occupants,” Pedestrian and Evacuation Dynamics 2012. Springer International Publishing, pp. 469-484, 2014.
  44. [44]  T. Tsuchiya, T. Osaragi, and T. Oki, “Influence of information-hearsay on wide-area evacuation at a large earthquake,” Proc. of the ISCRAM 2015 Conf., 2015.

*This site is desgined based on HTML5 and CSS3 for modern browsers, e.g. Chrome, Firefox, Safari, Edge, IE9,10,11, Opera.

Last updated on Nov. 12, 2018