Development of an Integrated Decision-Making Method for Effective Flood Early Warning System
Mamoru Miyamoto*, Rabindra Osti**, and Toshio Okazumi*
*International Centre for Water Hazard and Risk Managaement, Public Works Research Institute, 1-6 Minamihara, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8516, Japan
**Asian Development Bank, 6 ADB Avenue, Mandaluyong City, Metro Manila 1550, Philippines
Floods in Bangladesh are often so catastrophic that they inflict substantial damage to the nation’s agriculture-based economy. To reduce this vulnerability, it is imperative to establish an effective flood early warning system across the country. There are too many urgent and complex issues about early flood warning activities in Bangladesh, however, and flood management is relatively complex, with several types of authorities currently involved in the effort. It is therefore necessary for stakeholders to create a National Road Map that offers future directions toward flood risk management. Issues prioritized by quantitative ranking in the implementation of an effective flood early warning must be identified on the National Road Map. In order to comprehensively prioritize listed interventions that are issues requiring improvement, two types of questionnaire were conducted. Next, multi-criteria analysis (MCA) and the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) strength, weakness, opportunity and threat (SWOT) were applied to survey results derived from pair-wise comparison, and both types of results were combined. Interventions with the highest priority in each cascade were identified based on quantitative importance. To ensure consistency among stakeholders, a fuzzy AHP was applied to each cascade. As a result, the most important and urgent interventions that contributed to creating a National Road Map were identified by integrated decision-making and new quantitative decision-making was shown by integrating MCA and AHP-SWOT.
-  Flood Forecasting and Warning Centre, “Annual Flood Report 2010,” Bangladesh Water Development Board, 2010.
-  Bangladesh Water Development Board, “Early Warning System Study under the technical assistance grant of Asian Development Bank,” Report of TA-4562(BAN), 2006.
-  M. Faisal, M. R. Kabir, and A. Nishat, “Non-structural Flood Mitigation Measures for Dhaka City,” Urban Water, Vol.1, pp. 145-153, 1999.
-  N. Y. Choudhury, A. Paul, and B. K. Paul, “Impact of Coastal Embankment on the flash flood in Bangladesh: a Case Study,” Applied Geography, Vol.24, pp. 241-258, 2004.
-  C. B. Moffitt, F. Hossain, R. F. Adler, K. K. Yilmaz, and H. F. Pierce, “Validation of a TRMM-based Global Flood Detection System in Bangladesh,” International journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation, Vol.13, pp. 165-177, 2011.
-  V. Wickramasinghe and S. Takano, “Application of Combined SWOT and Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) for Tourism Revival Strategic Marketing Planning: A Case of Sri Lanka Tourism,” Journal of the Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies, Vol.8, pp. 954-969, 2010.
-  H. H. Chang and W. C. Huang, “Application of a quantification SWOT analytical method,” Mathematical and Computer Modeling, Vol.43, pp. 158-169, 2006.
-  R. K. Shrestha, J. R. R. Alavalapati, and R. S. Kalmbacher, “Exploring the Potential for Silvopasture Adoption in South-central Florida: an Application of SWOT-AHP Method,” Agricultural Systems, Vol.81, pp. 185-199, 2004.
-  M. Kurttila, M. Pesonen, J. Kangas, and M. Kajanus, “Utilizing the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) in SWOT Analysis: a Hybrid Method and Its Application to a Forest-certification case,” Forest Policy and Economics, Vol.1, pp. 41-52, 2000.
-  M. S. Hossain, S. R. Chowdhury, N. G. Das, S. M. Sharifuzzaman, and A. Sultana, “Integration of GIS and Multicriteria Decision Analysis for Urban Aquaculture Development in Bangladesh,” Landscape and Urban Planning, Vol.90, pp. 119-133, 2009.
-  UNISDR, “Developing Early Warning Systems: Checklist,” Third International Conference on Early Warning, 2006.
-  T. L. Saaty, “A scaling method for priorities in hierarchical structures,” Journal of Mathematical Psychology, Vol.15, No.3, pp. 234-281, 1977.