A Hybrid Fuzzy System Dynamics Approach for Risk Analysis of AUV Operations
Tzu Yang Loh*1, Mario P. Brito*2, Neil Bose*3, Jingjing Xu*4, Natalia Nikolova*1,*5, and Kiril Tenekedjiev*1,*5
*1Australian Maritime College, University of Tasmania
1 Maritime Way, Launceston, Tasmania 7250, Australia
*2Southampton Business School, University of Southampton
Building 2, 12 University Road, Highfield, Southampton SO17 1BJ, United Kingdom
*3Memorial University of Newfoundland
230 Elizabeth Avenue, St. John’s, Newfoundland and Labrador A1C 5S7, Canada
*4Faculty of Business, University of Plymouth
Cookworthy Building, Drake Circus, Plymouth PL4 8AA, United Kingdom
*5Nikola Vaptsarov Naval Academy
73 Vasil Drumev Street, Varna 9026, Bulgaria
The maturing of autonomous technology has fostered a rapid expansion in the use of Autonomous Underwater Vehicles (AUVs). To prevent the loss of AUVs during deployments, existing risk analysis approaches tend to focus on technicalities, historical data and experts’ opinion for probability quantification. However, data may not always be available and the complex interrelationships between risk factors are often neglected due to uncertainties. To overcome these shortfalls, a hybrid fuzzy system dynamics risk analysis (FuSDRA) is proposed. The approach utilises the strengths while overcoming limitations of both system dynamics and fuzzy set theory. Presented as a three-step iterative framework, the approach was applied on a case study to examine the impact of crew operating experience on the risk of AUV loss. Results showed not only that initial experience of the team affects the risk of loss, but any loss of experience in earlier stages of the AUV program have a lesser impact as compared to later stages. A series of risk control policies were recommended based on the results. The case study demonstrated how the FuSDRA approach can be applied to inform human resource and risk management strategies, or broader application within the AUV domain and other complex technological systems.
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