Next Generation Passive Optical Networking Technology Predictions by Using Hybrid MCDM Methods
Chi-Yo Huang*1, Shih-Yu Chang*2, Yu-Hsien Yang*2,
and Gwo-Hshiung Tzeng*3,*4
*1Department of Industrial Education, National Taiwan Normal University, No.162, Section 1, He-ping East Road, Taipei 106, Taiwan
*2Dept. of Computer Science, National Tsing Hua University, No.101, Section 2, Kuang Fu Road, Hsinchu, Taiwan
*3Institute of Project Management, Kainan University, No.1 Kainan Road, Luchu, Taoyuan 338, Taiwan
*4Institute of Management of Technology, National Chiao Tung University, 1001 Ta-Hsueh Road, Hsinchu 300, Taiwan
The evolution of broadband telecommunication technologies has enabled applications over networks, which, in turn, has enabled the emergence of novel network services and applications such as VoIP and video on demand in triggering demand for higher network bandwidth. Passive Optical Networking (PON) is suitable for eliminating bandwidth insufficiency, so national governments and communities are observing the emergence of Fiber-To-The-Home (FTTH) technologies. Ethernet-based Passive Optical Networks (EPON) and Gigabit-based PON (GPON) are two candidates for next-generation PON in bandwidth efficiency. To predict which is more suitable nationally, we define a foresight framework based on hybrid Multiple Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) methods for selecting the most suitable PON. The development of next-generation PON, including Ethernet PON (EPON) and Gigabit PON (GPON), is introduced and compared. Experts from industry and academia were invited to predict the most suitable next-generation PON for Japan and emerging economies such as Taiwan. Results showed that EPON is most suitable for Japan and GPON most suitable for Taiwan. Results for the technological foresight can serve as the basis for national telecommunication policy and business product definition.
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