3.1. Geography

The topography of Khovd Province (Aimag) comprises the northern flat basin region with lakes, the central Mongolian Altai Mountain region, and the southern plain region at the foot of the Mongolian Altai Mountains. The surface condition is semi-arid barren land in the north, alpine terrain covered with snow and ice in the central area, barren land or steppe at mountain feet, and mostly arid (Gobi) or desert land except for grasslands along the river in the south. Khovd Province has all the ecosystems that represent the physiographic environment of Central Asia (Fig. 1).

The average annual temperatures are 0°C or higher in the north, less than 0°C in the central area, and 2°C or higher in the south. The average temperatures in July and January are 15°C or higher, \(-20°\)C to \(-25°\)C in the northern area; 0°C to 15°C, \(-25°\)C or lower in the central area; and 20°C, \(-20°\)C or higher in the southern area. Annual precipitation is 150 mm or less in the north, 150–400 mm in the center, and 150 mm or less in the south.

The annual average temperature of the city of Khovd, where the prefectural office is located, is approximately 0°C, and the monthly average temperatures in January and July are \(-25°\)C and 19°C, respectively. The annual rainfall is about 120 mm.

As of 2019, the population of Khovd Province was 89,712 (31,268 in the city of Khovd and 9,807 in Bulgan Soum). There are 17 soums (Myangad, Durgun, Chandmani, Darvi, Erdeneburen, Khovd, Jargalant, Buyant, Duut, Mankhan, Zereg, Munkhkhairkhan, Must, Tsetseg, Altai, Uyench, and Bulgan) in the province. Since 2003, Jargalant Soum has been known as the city of Khovd and is the central city of western Mongolia.

The city of Khovd (Jargalant Soum) consists of 12 administrative units called bags (Alagtolgoi, Baatarkhairkhan, Bugat, Bichigt, Jargalant, Magsarjav, Takhilt, Buyant, Khairkhan, Tsambagarav, Rashaant, and Naran).

Khovd Province is multi-ethnic and culturally diverse, with 10 Buddhist temples, six Christian churches, and two Islamic mosques. Nine sub-ethnic groups (Khalkh, Zakhchin, Uriankhai, Durvud, Myangad, Uuld, Torghut, Tuva, and Khoshuud) and one ethnic group (Khasag) live there. The Khasag are Islamic people of Turkish ethnicity. A soum is often populated by specific ethnic groups who form a regional majority. In Khovd Province, there is a tendency of specific ethnic groups to live in each bag.

3.2. Disasters Triggered by Natural Hazards

The disasters triggered by natural hazards experienced in Khovd Province include 1) earthquakes throughout the province; 2) floods along the Khovd, Buyant, Bulgan, Uyench, and Bodonch rivers; 3) sheet floods due to heavy rain on steep mountain slopes; 4) sandstorms; 5) harsh winter (dzud); 6) forest fires; 7) ground deformation and dryness due to melting permafrost; 8) sand movement; 9) possible glacial lake outbursts; and 10) infectious diseases coming across borders.

There are many active faults throughout Khovd Province, and large-scale earthquakes have occurred ^15,16. The 1931 Fuyun earthquake (Mw 8.0) occurred in Chinese territory near the Mongolian border ^17,18,19, and many M6–7 class earthquakes have occurred in the Mongolian Altai Mountains and the northern region in the twentieth century, causing damage to buildings in Khovd Province (Fig. 2).

The effects of global warming, such as dry weather, melting glaciers, and rising water levels in rivers, are beginning to appear in Khovd Province ^20,21. Glaciers at high altitudes in the Mongolian Altai Mountains have also been found to have shrunk significantly ^22,23. The town of Altai at the southern foot of the Mongolian Altai Mountains was relocated due to flooding of the Bodonch River in 2009. Floods also occurred in the city of Khovd in 2016 and 2018.

Batjargal ²⁴ estimates that the vulnerability and risk index for 2046–2065 due to global warming is the worst in the western region, including Khovd Province.

In particular, Khovd Province is predicted to have less annual rainfall and more frequent dzud.

Dzud are the most serious winter disasters in Mongolia, as many livestock die due to the harsh climatic conditions they create. Mongolia experienced major dzud in 1944–1945, 1967–1968, 1999–2002, and 2009–2010. The numbers of dead animals were 8.6 million, 3.8 million, 3 million (total 12 million in 1999–2002), and 10 million, respectively. Zavkhan, Gobi-Altai, Uvs, and Khovd Provinces are more vulnerable to dzud and lost a significant number of livestock in the above-mentioned dzud ^25,26,27.

There are many buildings in the city of Khovd, located on the banks of the Buyant River (Fig. 3). A large flood in 2018 caused six traditional residential mobile tents (gers) to collapse, and 630 households and four building basements were flooded. Nineteen households evacuated to shelters. In the neighboring province of Bayan-Ulgii, three people were injured, 287 houses crumpled, 154 gers collapsed, and 236 households were forced to move to temporary shelters. In total, 2,500 people were affected.

One of the causes of flood damage was that artificial structures blocked the drainage of waterways. Residents also worry about the earthquake resistance of buildings and electrical fires caused by broken electricity cables.

5.1. Citizen-Led DRR Workshop

In August 2018, Profs. Sukhee Battulga, Yumiko Nara, and Tetsuya Inamura met with bag chiefs and social workers in the city of Khovd and asked them for their views on the damage caused by the June 2018 flooding (Fig. 4). Moreover, we asked them for their cooperation in conducting the questionnaire survey on DRR among residents ^28,30. The questionnaire survey was conducted among Khovd residents in October 2018 (956 valid responses, 95.6% valid response rate), and revealed that awareness of disaster risks (especially for earthquakes and floods), self-help and mutual assistance, and support systems are not sufficient for DRR ³¹. Regarding this as a problem, DRR workshops were planned with residents to promote changes in their behavior.

On February 21, 2019, we reunited with the bag chiefs to report on the survey results, held a workshop, and suggested holding a workshop for residents. The chiefs enthusiastically accepted this proposal and each chief facilitated workshops with 10 residents on March 28.

Resident representatives gathered around a large-format satellite photo of their bags and placed stickers of different colors (brown: earthquake, blue: flood, pink: dzud, red: fire, yellow: storm) at likely areas where these disasters could occur, thereby creating a consciousness-based hazard map (Fig. 4(e)). They proposed disaster mitigation measures and created handwritten posters. Finally, the representative of each bag gave a poster presentation for all the participants (Fig. 4(f)). Both the bag leaders and residents became aware of the significance of the workshops ³⁰.

Following those workshops, in August 2019, we walked around the areas with the bag chiefs and social workers looking at the posters and confirming the danger points. We then compiled proposals for damage mitigation measures.

Our DRR activities in Khovd Province were also important in terms of transmitting ideas from rural areas to the capital. Although DRR activities usually proceed under the direction of the central government, we aimed for DRR proposals and implementation by rural citizens. As a symbolic gesture, a symposium on citizen-led DRR was held in the auditorium of the Khovd Province Office in March 2019 (Fig. 4(g)). First, the Khovd EMD Director, B. Altanbadralt, talked about the disasters triggered by natural hazards in the Khovd region and NEMA’s activities. Profs. Yasuhiro Suzuki and Yumiko Nara explained the scope and progress of the JICA project. Lastly, we discussed the importance of citizen-led DRR. The symposium was broadcast by some local TV stations. Although disaster prevention workshops by international organizations have been previously held in Khovd City, this was the first DRR led by bag chiefs and residents, and the program was announced country-wide by media.

5.2. DRR Carta Creation

In March 2018, we first gathered 100 student disaster prevention leaders at Tsast-Altai Junior High School in the city of Khovd to learn about DRR carta. Although carta is not known in Mongolia, children generally enjoy drawing pictures and writing poems, and it was thought they would like to create carta.

Then in February 2019, we reassembled the students at Tsast-Altai Junior High to create their own carta. The students were very enthusiastic about the project and used colored pencils to draw pictures and write poems (Fig. 4(h)). Following the workshop, they used their skills to facilitate carta-making with students in their own schools.

In March 2019, with the cooperation of Khovd EMD and the Department of Education of Khovd Province, a carta contest for all the schools in the city of Khovd was held. We judged and selected the winners with EMD staff and the province officers. The students’ excellent work was exhibited at the Children’s Center on March 28, and the winners were commended by Prof. Tetsuya Inamura and Dr. Shoko Ishii (Figs. 4(i) and (j)) ³².

In the autumn of 2019, the children’s work was sent to Ulaanbaatar for refinement. We created new cards with motifs of Mongolian landscapes and folklore in the winter of 2019, and since COVID-19 had become a problem by then, several pictures regarding measures against infectious diseases were added (Fig. 5(a)).

In January 2020, a workshop was held at NEMA to report on the progress of the project and discuss how to proceed (details are mentioned later).

In May 2020, we chose a printing company and a paper manufacturing company in Ulaanbaatar, and the first DRR carta cards in Mongolia were printed. The staff of NEMA organized the cards into boxes to complete the carta sets (Fig. 5(b)). On June 27, a presentation ceremony was held with the chief of NEMA presiding (Fig. 5(c)). The chief was impressed with the DRR carta and issued an order to disseminate them nationwide.

After a two-year break due to COVID-19 from 2020, a large carta tournament was held at Tsast-Altai School in the city of Khovd in September 2022, where more than 100 children enjoyed playing carta games. This year marked the 50th anniversary of the establishment of friendly relations between Japan and Mongolia, and international cultural exchange was realized with the participation of JICA staff (Fig. 6).

After that, teachers of Tsast-Altai School voluntarily worked to promote carta at schools in Khovd Province. As a result, a carta tournament was held on the grassland in Mankhan Soum, 90 km from the city of Khovd, in September 2023. The children who participated showed interest in the poems and pictures of the carta. By memorizing these, the effectiveness of DRR education was enhanced.

5.3. Online Content Coverage for DRR Education

In January 2018, we started creating remote educational content about Khovd region’s natural environment and DRR. First, to understand the characteristics of each region in the province, we conducted fieldwork in Jargalant, Buyant, Munkhkhairkhan, Myangad, and Mankhan in January 2018; Uyench and Bulgan in March 2018; Duut, Durgun, and Most in June 2018; Bulgan and Wench in August 2018; and Altai, Mankhan, Eldeneburen, and Munkhkhairkhan in August 2019 (Fig. 7). We captured aerial photographs with drones and recorded interviews with residents and government officials ^32,33.

Our fieldwork revealed the diversity of each soum:

• In the Myangad Soum (Fig. 7(a)) in the northern region of the province, the Myangad are the majority. Agriculture is thriving because of the flat landscape. The soum is vulnerable to strong winds, and gers were blown away in 2018. Fires are likely to occur in bush areas, and there are many lightning strikes. Livestock often die by eating poisonous grass.

• In Durgun Soum, the Durvud are the majority. Situated on Lake Khal-Us, the province has been significantly dry for the last 30 years. Trees cannot be planted due to the movement of sand. Due to the construction of the dam, the water level changed and pasture was adversely affected.

• In Buyant Soum (Fig. 7(b)), the Khalkha and Khasag are the majority, and there are two mosques. This soum produces 70% of the grass consumed in Khovd Province. The temperature differs significantly between summer and winter, and floods and fires are likely to occur.

• In Mankhan Soum (Fig. 7(c)), the Zakhchin account for 98% of the total population. The number of livestock owned is the highest in the prefecture; however, there has been a lot of flood damage. A fire erupted in the bush on the shore of Lake Khal-Us. In winter, it can reach \(-60°\)C, and dzud frequently occur. Earthquakes occur occasionally. We interviewed a woman almost 100 years old about her experience of a mountain slope collapsing in an earthquake over 80 years ago.

• In Erdeneburen Soum (Fig. 7(d)), the Uuld account for 90% of the population. Located along the Khovd River, irrigation-based agriculture (watermelon, potatoes, vegetables, and wheat) is flourishing. Recently, while the frequency of drought has increased, the water level of the Khovd River has risen, and the meadows have been flooded. Infectious diseases among livestock occur occasionally. The 1988 earthquake also caused ice blocks to fall from glaciers, killing many livestock. The icecap on Mt. Tsanbagarau (4,208 m) has shrunk rapidly since the late 1990s to one-third its original size ³³.

• In Khovd Soum, the Khasag account for 96% of the population. Vegetable cultivation is popular. Sandstorms can trigger fire. People worry about drought and rock collapse due to earthquakes. In the socialist era, co-operatives (negdel) took effective mitigation measures, but today it is more difficult to institute these measures, and individuals experience different levels of damage.

• In Duut Soum (Fig. 7(e)), the Uriankhai account for 90% of the population. The soum is in the Mongolian Altai Mountains where 10,000 yaks are kept. Strong winds and dzud damage occur frequently. As villages are situated along the valley, snowmelt floods cause frequent damage. There is a large active fault along a straight, steep valley (Fig. 7(g)).

• In Munkhkhairkhan Soum (Fig. 7(f)), the Uriankhai accounts for 98% of the population. Due to the high mountains, there is little grass and they buy grass from other soums. Dzud, floods, and lightning strikes are likely, and earthquakes occur. It is said that there was an earthquake in 1932–1933 that caused cracks in the ground and injured livestock. On March 31, 1975, there was an earthquake with a seismic intensity of 7–8 in MSK scale. A building was damaged and ice fell from the mountain. The Munkhkhairkhan mountain snowcaps are decreasing in size, and droughts are increasing.

• In Bulgan Soum, the Torghut accounts for 80% of the population. In addition to agriculture such as watermelon cultivation, residents actively trade with China across the border. Residents want to reinforce the embankment built in 1982, as it is vulnerable to the snowmelt floods of the Bulgan River. Drone aerial photography clearly captures the topographical features of the flood-vulnerable Bulgan (Fig. 7(h)).

Since 2018, we have started consultations with the National University of Mongolia regarding editing local coverage. The university has had a plan in place to actively promote the creation of online teaching materials since 2019, and to bring half of all lectures online. In addition, the National University of Mongolia and the Open University of Japan signed a cooperation agreement in May 2019. Since the disaster prevention teaching materials we create can also be used for university education, it was agreed that Mr. Khatanzorig of the National University of Mongolia will cooperate with us in video editing. He recorded lectures in Ulaanbaatar ³³ given by Serjmyadag (NEMA), Ariunaa (NEMA), Sarantuya (National Agency for Meteorology, Hydrology and Environment Monitoring), Batjargal (Ministry of Natural Environment and Tourism), and Enkhtaivan (Institute of Geography and Geoecology).

In November 2018, we recorded lectures given by Dr. Enkhzaya, the director of the Khovd Meteorological Observatory, on Khovd’s climate, and by Dr. Otogonbayar, associate professor at Khovd University, on melting glaciers in the Mongolian Altai Mountains.

In 2020, due to the spread of COVID-19, the importance of online content could be clearly seen. The content prepared for this project has become more important in providing pioneering materials for online access.

5.4. Hazard Mapping

We first discussed the types of hazard maps that are necessary in Mongolia. As a result, we identified the need to visualize the following three categories of hazard information: (1) regional differences in hazard types by province, (2) earthquake and flood hazards at the provincial level, and (3) detailed disaster risks at the soum level. Among these, this study focused on the development of a flood hazard map for Khovd City, which was subsequently presented to the relevant local authorities ³⁴.

In recent years, floods have become frequent in the city of Khovd, causing continuous damage. As hazard maps are becoming important for reducing flood damage, we attempted to create a hazard map using a simple method. The city is located in a semi-arid region, so there is no surface runoff except for the Buyant River that flows next to the city. However, during heavy rains, flash floods flowing down from the mountain slopes hit the city. Therefore, it is necessary for citizens first to recognize the flow paths that arise due to topographical constraints and take them into consideration when using land.

In August 2019, we captured 15,000 drone photographs of the city of Khovd and analyzed them with a structure-from-motion program (photographing specifications are as follows: flight altitude: 120 m; overlap: 75%; side lap: 64%; resolution: 3 cm; number of flights: 53; total flight time: 18 hours). A large-scale topographic map with contour spacing of 20 cm was created from the data. The map indicates the direction of water flow during floods and enables us to understand how the 2018 flooding occurred ³¹. Additionally, it was found that the flooding from the Buyant River, which flows to the west of the city, could flow into the center of the city. Comparing this figure with a consciousness-based hazard map created by citizens helps to raise awareness of disasters.

Furthermore, because there are many active faults throughout Khovd Province, it is necessary to create a detailed expected seismic intensity map for each earthquake scenario. Risk communications and transdisciplinary disaster awareness activities based on the hazard map can then be generated.

6.1. Achievement and Validation

The present study applied a Japanese good-practice methodology for citizen-led DRR in the Khovd Province to develop a Mongolian good practice model (Table 1) that can better enable DRR across the country. We considered the following factors important for international collaboration in DRR projects: 1) transferring the spirit of DRR, 2) customizing methods for the target area, 3) consistency with national policies, and 4) involvement of regional stakeholders.

This transdisciplinary research examined the regional characteristics of the target area and proposed an effective methodology for citizen-led DRR that had not previously been implemented in Mongolia. First, community activities for each bag are now active, as public participation workshops were held under the initiative of the bag leaders. Second, the DRR student leaders organized in the junior high schools acted as facilitators to create a DRR carta for the first time in Mongolia. Third, as remote education can be effective in a nomadic society, online DRR teaching materials were created together with Mongolian researchers. Fourth, based on the geographic survey, we created hazard maps that had not before been developed in Mongolia.

The project should ultimately be evaluated by the residents; however, many residents and children have already participated and expect to see results. The project has also received a certain amount of evaluation by NEMA and the local government.

In September 2019, UNDRR held the International Science Conference on Strengthening Urban Disaster Resilience (Fig. 8(a)). We presented our report on the current achievements of this project under the title, “Practical Research and Education to Enhance Disaster Resilience of Citizens: Lessons from Japan’s Disasters and Collaboration with Mongolia” ³⁵. We have also reported at other international conferences and published the results of the residents’ questionnaires ^36,37,38,39.

In January 2020, we held a workshop in Ulaanbaatar to discuss the progress of the project (Figs. 8(b)–(d)) at NEMA. We first reported on the creation of carta, broadcast content, and hazard maps, and then on the citizen workshops with bag chiefs. Dovchin Munkhbat, director of NEMA’s DRR Education Center, reported on their DRR educational activities in Ulaanbaatar, plans for regional expansion, and media coverage. Dalai Serjmyadag of the Disaster Research Institute reported that citizen-led DRR became active after the 2017 revision of the disaster protection law, and both workshops and DRR education became mandatory. These reports from NEMA proved that the results of our project are consistent with and effectively support the policies of the Mongolian government.

Finally, Tuvshin Badral, the chief of NEMA, evaluated the project as follows:

1. 1)

   I look forward to creating hazard maps across Khovd Province where floods and earthquakes occur.

2. 2)

   I want residents to learn about the necessary countermeasures for each bag through the workshops.

3. 3)

   I look forward to DRR educational broadcast content. When it is completed, I would like to introduce it into schools. Schools can be actively involved if they have basic content.

4. 4)

   Khovd EMD staff have learned how to use drones and have been successful in rescue operations.

5. 5)

   Carta is quite unique and interesting, and it conveys tradition as well as DRR. Let us form a joint team to promote carta.

6. 6)

   I would like to set up a DRR education center not only in Ulaanbaatar but also in rural areas. I would like to ask the Japanese members to cooperate in spreading practices based in regional centers. It is important for teachers to know how to teach DRR.

Furthermore, B. Altanbadralt, director of Khovd EMD, commented:

1. 1)

   I propose to conduct questionnaire surveys with residents not only in the city of Khovd but throughout the province.

2. 2)

   It would be good to complete the creation of carta in 2020 and spread the game nationwide in 2021.

3. 3)

   I hope that the hazard map for each soum will be completed.

4. 4)

   I want volunteers to learn how to facilitate workshops.

6.2. Future Challenges and Developments

It can be concluded that our attempt to co-produce and demonstrate a good model for DRR for Mongolian citizens in Khovd was successful. Tuvshin Badral, the NEMA chief, has officially announced that this practice will be rolled out nationwide. This citizen-led DRR model is likely to be strongly promoted at regional DRR education centers that will be set up nationwide in the future. However, as the DRR model we propose is a citizen-led software measure, financial support, including international cooperation, is required to establish the hardware of regional DRR education centers. Additionally, it is necessary for related organizations in Mongolia (local governments, schools, universities, research institutes, etc., with whom we collaborated in Khovd Province) to cooperate and support this operation.

Furthermore, the methodology presented in this study serves as a model for disseminating citizen-led DRR internationally through transdisciplinary measures.

On May 15, 2020, the chief of NEMA issued the following order regarding carta creation as the official Mongolian message on the future development of the project. This order proves that the citizen-led DRR practice in Khovd conducted by this study was appropriate.

ORDER OF THE CHIEF OF NATIONAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY, which was approved on May 15, 2020, stated with the title: Establishment of a working group as follows.

“According to the Provision 8.4, 15.1 of the Law on Legal Status of Government Agencies, 30.1.11 of the Law on Disaster Protection, ORDERING hereby:

1. 1.

   Disaster Awareness Enlightenment Project for large-scale natural disasters caused by global environmental change in Mongolia with support of Japanese technical cooperation under the JICA partnership program, being implemented until July 2020 by the National Emergency Management Agency, establishing a project implementing working group as follows:

   Chairman of the project: Ts. Ganzorig, Deputy Chief, Colonel.

   Working group members: Ch. Ariunaa, Head of Foreign Cooperation Division, Colonel, D. Serjmyadag, Scientific secretary, Disaster Research Institute under NEMA, Lieutenant Colonel, B. Altanbadralt, Director of Western Regional Center and Emergency Management Department of Khovd Aimag, Lieutenant Colonel, B. Vanchindorj, Specialist, Policy Coordination and Cooperation Department, Senior Lieutenant.

2. 2.

   Assign the duty to Colonel Ts. Ganzorig, Chairman of project for disseminating good practices and applications for public developed during the project implementation to all aimags.

3. 3.

   Assign the duty to Brigadier General G. Ariunbuyan, First Deputy Chief of NEMA for monitoring the implementation of this order.

BADRAL TUVSHIN, CHIEF, MAJOR GENERAL (signed and sealed).”

Although this project produced notable practical outcomes in disaster prevention, several academic issues remain in cultural anthropology and geography. First, as mentioned above, citizen-led DRR is not easy to realize in Mongolia. This may be linked to the weakening of administrative structures after the socialist collapse and to widening economic disparities under neoliberal reforms, however, these factors require further study. Second, in Khovd City, the bag-led administrative system appeared to function relatively well, possibly due to the city’s agriculture-centered industrial structure. Comparative research in regions with different economic bases is needed to substantiate this point. Third, ethnic subgroups within each soum may influence regional variations in disaster awareness; this could not be clarified in the present study. Fourth, interviews suggested that living environments and lifestyles shape disaster risk—such as differing views on the need for river levees—but a systematic analysis of such regional differences has yet to be undertaken. Fifth, although hazard maps were required for all soums in Khovd Province, this project was only able to produce them for Khovd City. Moving forward, it is essential to explore efficient mapping methods and establish a sustainable system for their development. Clarifying these issues remains an important task for future research.

In 2025, we launched the second phase of the JICA project, titled “Project for Sustainable Civic Activities and Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) Education in Mongolia.” This phase aims to promote the DRR carta nationwide in collaboration with the Ministry of Education, expand school DRR curricula, and cultivate regional volunteer leaders to advance community-based DRR efforts.

In addition, Suzuki et al. ^40,41 discovered a previously unidentified Ulaanbaatar active fault within the city of Ulaanbaatar in another project. It became necessary to comprehensively review the earthquake DRR in Ulaanbaatar, indicating that international cooperation is also required to deal with this matter.

Data availability

Information on the activities of the Cooperative Center for Resilience Research and the Disaster Mitigation Research Center at Nagoya University can be found at the following URLs http://danso.env.nagoya-u.ac.jp/CCRR/ http://www.gensai.nagoya-u.ac.jp/en/ Details of various activities, including this study, are available on the NEMA website: http://en.nema.gov.mn/ A summary of the White Paper on Disaster Risk Reduction in Mongolia is available at the following URL https://www.jica.go.jp/project/mongolia/016/materials/ku57pq0000316w3f-att/2017WhitePaper_Summary_Eng.pdf