Paper:
Climate Change Adaptation Strategies and Economic Challenges in Atoll Nations: A Case Study of the Republic of the Marshall Islands
Mikio Ishiwatari*
, Miko Maekawa**
, and Ryo Fujikura***,

*Graduate School of Frontier Sciences, The University of Tokyo
5-1-5 Kashiwanoha, Kashiwa City, Chiba 277-8563, Japan
**Sasakawa Peace Foundation
Tokyo, Japan
***Faculty of Sustainable Studies, Hosei University
Tokyo, Japan
Corresponding author
Climate change poses an existential threat to small island developing states, particularly atoll nations like the Republic of the Marshall Islands (RMI). This study examines the economic and financial challenges of implementing climate change adaptation measures in these vulnerable countries. Through a comprehensive literature review and a case study of the RMI, the costs and feasibility of various adaptation strategies, including coastal protection, land raising, and migration, were analyzed. Findings reveal that the financial requirements for effective adaptation far exceed the economic capacities of the RMI. Even basic protective measures require investments multiple times the country’s gross domestic product. The benefit-cost ratios of adaptation projects fall below 1 when evaluated solely on disaster risk reduction, highlighting the need for a paradigm shift in assessing adaptation investments in highly vulnerable nations. This study underscores the critical importance of international climate finance and support. While the RMI has received significant climate development finance, the scale of required adaptation measures far surpasses this level of assistance. The key challenges included not only debt sustainability concerns but also traditional land tenure systems, ecological impacts, and the limitations of conventional cost-benefit analyses in the context of national survival. This study offers valuable insights for policymakers, international organizations, and researchers working on climate resilience in vulnerable coastal nations.
- [1] The Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change, “Climate change 2022: Impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability,” 2022. https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-working-group-ii/ [Accessed December 18, 2023]
- [2] C. D. Storlazzi, S. B. Gingerich, A. van Dongeren, O. M. Cheriton, P. W. Swarzenski, E. Quataert, C. I. Voss, D. W. Field, H. Annamalai, G. A. Piniak, and R. McCall, “Most atolls will be uninhabitable by the mid-21st century because of seal-level rise exacerbating wave-driven flooding,” Science Advances, Vol.4, Issue 4, Article No.eaap9741, 2018. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aap9741
- [3] M. I. Vousdoukas, P. Athanasiou, A. Giardino, L. Mentaschi, A. Stocchino, R. E. Kopp, P. Menéndez, M. W. Beck, R. Ranasinghe, and L. Feyen, “Small island developing states under threat by rising seas even in a 1.5°C warming world,” Nature Sustainability, Vol.6, pp. 1552-1564, 2023. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-023-01230-5
- [4] J. Barnett, “The dilemmas of normalising losses from climate change: Towards hope for Pacific atoll countries,” Asia Pacific Viewpoint Lecture, Vol.58, No.1, pp. 3-13, 2017. https://doi.org/10.1111/apv.12153
- [5] P. Rudiak-Gould, “Climate change and accusation: Global warming and local blame in a small island state,” Current Anthropology, Vol.55, No.4, pp. 365-386, 2014. https://doi.org/10.1086/676969
- [6] L. E. Sancken, “The price of sovereignty in the era of climate change: The role of climate finance in guiding adaptation choices for small island developing states,” UCLA J. of Environmental Law and Policy, Vol.38, No.2, 2020. https://doi.org/10.5070/L5382050110
- [7] M. Brownbridge and S. Canagarajah, “Climate change vulnerability, adaptation and public debt sustainability in small island developing states,” Policy Research Working Paper 10787, The World Bank, 2024.
- [8] N. L. Andrew, P. Bright, L. de la Rua, S. J. Teoh, and M. Vickers, “Coastal proximity of populations in 22 pacific island countries and territories,” PLOS ONE, Vol.14, No.9, Article No.e0223249, 2019. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0223249
- [9] Ministry of Foreign Affairs Japan, “Country and region,” 2024 (in Japanese). https://www.mofa.go.jp/mofaj/area/index.html [Accessed July 1, 2024]
- [10] “Indicators,” World Bank. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/ [Accessed July 1, 2024]
- [11] V. K. E. Duvat, A. K. Magnan, and J.-P. Gattuso, “Risks to future atoll habitability from climate-driven environmental changes,” WIREs Climate Change, Vol.12, No.2, Article No.e700, 2021. https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.700
- [12] E. Beetham, P. Kench, and S. Popinet, “Future reef growth can mitigate physical impacts of sea-level rise on atoll islands,” Earths Future, Vol.5, No.10, pp. 1002-1014, 2017. https://doi.org/10.1002/2017ef000589
- [13] International Monetary Fund (IMF), “Fiscal policies to address climate change in Asia and the Pacific,” IMF Departmental Paper, No.21/207, IMF, 2021.
- [14] G. Bachner, D. Lincke, and J. Hinkel, “The macroeconomic effects of adapting to high-end sea-level rise via protection and migration,” Nature Communications, Vol.13, Article No.5705, 2022. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-33043-z
- [15] M. Yee, C. McMichael, K. E. McNamara, and A. Piggott-McKellar, “Partial planned relocation and livelihoods: Learnings from Narikoso, Fiji,” Asia Pacific Viewpoint, Vol.38, No.2, 2024. https://doi.org/10.1111/apv.12409
- [16] D. Sasaki, A. Sakamoto, A. Laila, A. Aslam, S. Feng, T. Kaku, T. Sasaki, N. Shinomura, and M. Nakayama, “Facilitating the smooth migration of inhabitants of atoll countries to artificial islands: Case of the Maldives,” Sustainability, Vol.16, No.11, Article No.e4582, 2024. https://doi.org/10.3390/su16114582
- [17] M. Nakayama, R. Fujikura, R. Okuda, M. Fujii, R. Takashima, T. Murakawa, E. Sakai, and H. Iwama, “Alternatives for the Marshall Islands to cope with the anticipated sea level rise by climate change,” J. Disaster Res., Vol.17, No.3, pp. 315-326, 2022. https://doi.org/10.20965/jdr.2022.p0315
- [18] M. Nakayama, S. N. McClain, R. Fujikura, and D. Sasaki, “Migration, dignity, fragility, and pandemics: Overview of the special issue,” J. Disaster Res., Vol.17, No.3, pp. 285-291, 2022. https://doi.org/10.20965/jdr.2022.p0285
- [19] R. N. Crichton, M. Esteban, and M. Onuki, “Understanding the preferences of rural communities for adaptation to 21st-century sea-level rise: A case study from the Samoan islands,” Climate Risk Management, Vol.30, Article No.100254, 2020. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2020.100254
- [20] J. Klomp, “Flooded with debt,” J. of Int. Money and Finance, Vol.73, Part A, pp. 93-103, 2017. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2017.01.006
- [21] Japan International Cooperation Agency, Yachiyo Engineering Co., Ltd., Oriental Consultants Global Co., Ltd., and Nippon Koei Co., Ltd., “Data collection survey on climate-related disasters in the Male’s region in the Republic of Maldives: Final report,” 2022. https://openjicareport.jica.go.jp/551/551/551_114_12368783.html [Accessed May 1, 2024]
- [22] Ministry of Environment, Energy and Water, Republic of Maldives, “National adaptation program of action,” 2007. https://unfccc.int/resource/docs/napa/mdv01.pdf [Accessed May 1, 2024]
- [23] Ministry of Environment and Energy, Republic of Maldives, “Maldives: Climate change policy framework (2015–2025),” 2015. https://www.preventionweb.net/publication/maldives-climate-change-policy-framework-2015-2025 [Accessed May 1, 2024]
- [24] Ministry of Environment, “Update of Nationally Determined Contribution of Maldives,” 2020. https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/NDC/2022-06/Maldives%20Nationally%20Determined%20Contribution%202020.pdf [Accessed July 25, 2024]
- [25] A. Ahmed and A. Laila, “Climate change adaptation strategies for small island developing states–Lessons from artificial island development in the Maldives,” Presentation on Hulhumalé at Seminar on February 29, 2024, 2024. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IMhYl0FxheI [Accessed May 1, 2024]
- [26] World Bank, “Maldives development update—Towards resilient and affordable housing,” 2022. https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/49141824db6f3a3b812bad33d5779541-0310062022/original/MDU-Oct-22-Final.pdf [Accessed June 15, 2024]
- [27] NHK, “Asia insight,” Broadcasted by NHK BS, May 1, 2024.
- [28] IMF, “Maldives: 2024 Article IV consultation-press release; Staff report; and Statement by the executive director for Maldives,” Country Report No.2024/106, 2024. https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/CR/Issues/2024/05/10/Maldives-2024-Article-IV-Consultation-Press-Release-Staff-Report-and-Statement-by-the-548770 [Accessed June 15, 2024]
- [29] Tuvalu Coastal Adaptation Project, 2018. https://tcap.tv/ [Accessed June 11, 2024]
- [30] K. Walker and R. Dumaru, “Environmental and social impact assessment: Funafuti,” Tuvalu Coastal Adaptation Project, 2020. https://www.undp.org/pacific/publications/environmental-and-social-impact-assessment-funafuti [Accessed June 5, 2024]
- [31] Green Climate Fund (GCF), “FP015: Tuvalu Coastal Adaptation Project,” 2016. https://www.greenclimate.fund/project/fp015 [Accessed July 1, 2024]
- [32] Government of Kiribati, “Kiribati 20-year vision (2016–2036),” 2016. https://www.president.gov.ki/resources/kiribati-20-year-vision-kv20.html [Accessed July 14, 2024]
- [33] Jacobs, “Temaiku land and urban development,” 2018. https://www.jacobs.com/projects/kiribati [Accessed July 14, 2024]
- [34] Government of Kiribati, “2024 development budget,” 2023. https://www.mfed.gov.ki/publications/2024-development-budget [Accessed July 14, 2024]
- [35] Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People’s Republic of China, “Kiribati president and foreign minister Taneti Maamau meets with Wang Yi,” 2022. https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/eng/zxxx_662805/202205/t20220527_10693845.html [Accessed July 14, 2024]
- [36] IMF, “Republic of the Marshall Islands: Staff report for the 2023 Article IV consultation,” IMF, 2023.
- [37] NOAA Coral Reef Conservation Program, “CoRIS: Coral Reef Information System,” 2024. https://www.coris.noaa.gov/welcome.html [Accessed September 3, 2024]
- [38] United Nations Development Programme, “Republic of Marshall Island: Climate security risk assessment,” UNDP, 2023.
- [39] PCRAFI, “RMI country risk profile,” 2011. https://pcric.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Marshall-Islands.pdf [Accessed July 14, 2024]
- [40] World Bank, “Adapting to rising sea levels in Marshall Islands,” 2021. https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/8c715dcc5781421ebff46f35ef34a04d [Accessed July 19, 2024]
- [41] World Bank, “Project appraisal document, the second phase of a series of projects Pacific Resilience Project II,” World Bank, 2017.
- [42] Republic of the Marshall Islands, “The national adaptation plan of the Republic of the Marshall Islands,” 2023. https://rmigov.com/?page_id=714 [Accessed December 14, 2023]
- [43] L. E. Sancken, S. Jayawardhan, and B. Wheeler, “Climate finance and the Marshall Islands: Options for adaptation,” Marshall Islands Climate Change and Migration Project, University of Hawai’i at Mānoa, 2021.
- [44] World Bank, “Pacific possible: Long-term economic opportunities and challenges for pacific island countries,” World Bank, 2017.
- [45] OECD, “Development finance for climate and environment,” 2024. https://www.oecd.org/dac/financing-sustainable-development/development-finance-topics/climate-change.htm [Accessed July 14, 2024]
- [46] World Bank Group, “World Bank group climate change action plan 2021–2025: Supporting green, resilient, and inclusive development,” World Bank, 2021. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/35799 [Accessed August 28, 2024]
- [47] GCF, “GCF thematic brief adaptation,” 2021. https://www.greenclimate.fund/sites/default/files/document/thematic-brief-adaptation-2.pdf [Accessed August 28, 2024]
- [48] Royal Haskoning DHV, “Republic of Marshall Islands Pacific Resilience Project—Phase II (PREP II),” 2023. https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/099083023110581690/pdf/P1600961da2fe3012184601233c616a69f6.pdf [Accessed July 14, 2024]
- [49] GCF, “2022 Annual performance report for FP066: Pacific Resilience Project Phase II for RMI,” 2022. https://www.greenclimate.fund/sites/default/files/document/fp066-annual-perfromance-report-disclosable-2022.pdf [Accessed July 14, 2024]
- [50] GCF, “Funding proposal—Pacific Resilience Project Phase II for RMI,” 2018. https://www.greenclimate.fund/sites/default/files/document/funding-proposal-fp066-world-bank-marshall-islands-amended-final.pdf [Accessed July 14, 2024]
- [51] GCF, “Annual performance report for FP066: Pacific Resilience Project Phase II for RMI,” 2022. https://www.greenclimate.fund/sites/default/files/document/fp066-annual-perfromance-report-disclosable-2022.pdf [Accessed July 14, 2024]
- [52] M. Ishiwatari and D. Sasaki, “Disaster risk reduction funding: Investment cycle for flood protection in Japan,” Int. J. of Environmental Research and Public Health, Vol.19, No.6, Article No.3346, 2022. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph19063346
- [53] G. de Bie, “Private lands conservation in the Republic of the Marshall Islands,” Natural Resources Law Center, University of Colorado School of Law, 2004.
- [54] Human Rights Watch, “‘We still haven’t recovered’: Local communities harmed by reclamation projects in the Maldives,” 2023. https://www.hrw.org/report/2023/10/18/we-still-havent-recovered/local-communities-harmed-reclamation-projects-maldives [Accessed July 7, 2024]
This article is published under a Creative Commons Attribution-NoDerivatives 4.0 Internationa License.