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JDR Vol.18 No.8 pp. 868-876
(2023)
doi: 10.20965/jdr.2023.p0868

Paper:

Stochastic Precipitation Model Using Large Ensemble Data

Mizuki Shinohara*1,*2,† and Masaru Inatsu*3,*4 ORCID Icon

*1Graduate School of Science, Hokkaido University
Kita-10 Nishi-8, Kita-ku, Sapporo, Hokkaido 060-0810, Japan

*2Tokio Marine dR Co., Ltd.
Tokyo, Japan

*3Faculty of Science, Hokkaido University
Sapporo, Japan

*4Center for Natural Hazards Research, Hokkaido University
Sapporo, Japan

Corresponding author

Received:
April 26, 2023
Accepted:
August 4, 2023
Published:
December 1, 2023
Keywords:
extreme rainfall, climate change, flood, risk assessment, catastrophe model
Abstract

A precipitation dataset is created to estimate a reproduction period of several thousand years for stochastic flood risk assessment in the non-life insurance sector. A stochastic precipitation model for natural hazard risk assessment developed in a previous study was applied to a large ensemble data. The model was used to obtain the precipitation ensembles for the recent and future climate by +2 K and +4 K increases in mean temperature, respectively. We successfully created 10,000 years of precipitation data, which makes it possible to obtain precipitation data over a 1,000-year return period.

Cite this article as:
M. Shinohara and M. Inatsu, “Stochastic Precipitation Model Using Large Ensemble Data,” J. Disaster Res., Vol.18 No.8, pp. 868-876, 2023.
Data files:
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Last updated on Feb. 19, 2024