JDR Vol.17 No.4 pp. 541-545
doi: 10.20965/jdr.2022.p0541


Scenario Planning Approach to Pre-Event Planning for Post-Disaster Recovery: The Case of the Future Mega-Tsunami Striking Kushimoto, Japan

Tamiyo Kondo and Shogo Takemoto

Kobe University
1-1 Rokkodai, Nada-ku, Kobe, Hyogo 657-8501, Japan

Corresponding author

October 12, 2021
February 18, 2022
June 1, 2022
pre-event planning for post-disaster recovery, scenario planning, land use planning, collective residential relocation, the Nankai Trough earthquake

Previous studies have argued the significance of pre-event planning for post-disaster recovery. We examined how scenario planning approach is effective for pre-disaster planning. We applied scenario planning approach to develop strategies for multiple possible futures of the case study city, expected to hit by a massive tsunami following the Nankai Trough earthquake. Our analysis reveals the adaptive and transformative strategies for multiple scenarios. Uncertainty surrounding dynamic recovery processes need to enforce transformative strategies to reframe the Japanese planning paradigm in post-disaster recovery.

Cite this article as:
T. Kondo and S. Takemoto, “Scenario Planning Approach to Pre-Event Planning for Post-Disaster Recovery: The Case of the Future Mega-Tsunami Striking Kushimoto, Japan,” J. Disaster Res., Vol.17 No.4, pp. 541-545, 2022.
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Last updated on Apr. 22, 2024