JDR Vol.15 No.3 pp. 387-406
doi: 10.20965/jdr.2020.p0387


Earthquake Building Collapse Risk Estimation for 2040 in Yangon, Myanmar

Osamu Murao*1,†, Tomohiro Tanaka*2, Kimiro Meguro*3, and Theing Shwe*4

*1International Research Institute of Disaster Science, Tohoku University
468-1 Aoba, Aramaki, Aoba-ku, Sendai, Miyagi 980-0845, Japan

Corresponding author

*2Taisei Corporation, Miyagi, Japan

*3Institute of Industrial Science, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan

*4Yangon Technological University, Yangon, Myanmar

July 31, 2019
February 6, 2020
March 30, 2020
urban vulnerability, urban development, damage estimation, ground condition, building structure

Myanmar is a thriving country in Southeast Asia and is facing future earthquake risks caused by the Sagaing Fault. Under these circumstances, Yangon must implement earthquake risk reduction measures in future development. Applying the building collapse risk evaluation method proposed by the Tokyo Metropolitan Government, and analyzing current and future urban conditions of Yangon City based on available datasets, this study aimed to (1) evaluate present urban vulnerability focusing on building collapse risk, (2) clarify its future expansion tendency based on residential area development conditions from 2004 to 2018, and (3) estimate future building collapse risk in terms of future urban expansion limitation with urban function and building vulnerability in order to obtain useful information on earthquake risk reduction for future development in Yangon. Mainly, this research clarified as follows: (1) The inventory provided by YCDC (Yangon City Development Committee) showed that wooden buildings and RC accounted for 93.8% of all buildings in Yangon. (2) In order to understand the present urban vulnerability of Yangon based on the Tokyo Metropolitan Government’s method, 567 objective wards were categorized into five ranks according to the building collapse risk value. It indicated that building collapse risk in the Dawpon and Tharkayta Townships, located on the west side of Pazundaung Creek, were the highest. Some newly developed outskirts areas, such as Hlaingtharyar or Dala, also appeared as vulnerable with Ranks 4 and 5. (3) Yangon’s urban development conditions from 2004 to 2018 were visually clarified. Then, the relationships between the number of buildings, residential district area, and population according to townships were analyzed to estimate future development. (4) Finally, two types of urban development scenarios were set: Scenario A based on urban expansion limitation and urban function, and Scenario B based on building vulnerability. Then, the future building collapse risk trend from 2014 until 2040 was estimated. It was found that the Sub-center System would deter future urban sprawl in the future more than the Super CBD Single-core System, and the number of damaged buildings can be reduced by 43.5% at most in Dagon Seikkan.

Cite this article as:
O. Murao, T. Tanaka, K. Meguro, and T. Shwe, “Earthquake Building Collapse Risk Estimation for 2040 in Yangon, Myanmar,” J. Disaster Res., Vol.15 No.3, pp. 387-406, 2020.
Data files:
  1. [1] B. Kundu and V. K. Gahalaut, “Earthquake Occurrence Processes in the Indo-Burmese Wedge and Sagaing Fault Region,” Tectonophysics, Vols.524-525, pp. 135-146, 2012.
  2. [2] Central Disaster Prevention Council, “Damage Estimation of the Next Tokyo Metropolitan Earthquake and Mitigation Measures,” 2013, (in Japanese) [accessed June 12, 2019]
  3. [3] Bureau of Urban Development, Tokyo Metropolitan Government (TMG), “Your Community’s Earthquake Risk The Seventh Community Earthquake Risk Assessment Study,” 2013 (in Japanese).
  4. [4] Bureau of Urban Development, Tokyo Metropolitan Government (TMG), “Your Community’s Earthquake Risk: The eighth Community Earthquake Risk Assessment Study,” 2018, (in Japanese) [accessed October 13, 2018]
  5. [5] K. Meguro and H. Gokon, “Special Issue on SATREPS Myanmar Project: Construction of Myanmar Disaster Response Enhancement System and Industry-Academia-Government Cooperation Platform,” J. Disaster Res., Vol.13, No.1, p. 5, doi: 10.20965/jdr.2018.p0005, 2018.
  6. [6] O. Murao, H. Tanaka, and F. Yamazaki, “Risk Evaluation Method of Building Collapse from the Experience of the Kobe Earthquake,” 12th World Conf. on Earthquake Engineering, CD-ROM version, No.2312, 8pp., 2000.
  7. [7] F. Yamazaki and O. Murao, “Vulnerability Functions for Japanese Buildings based on Damage Data due to the 1995 Kobe Earthquake,” A. S. Elnashai and S. Antoniou (Eds.), “Implications of Recent Earthquakes on Seismic Risk,” Series of Innovation in Structures and Construction: Volume 2, pp. 91-102, Imperial College Press, 2000.
  8. [8] H. Kaji, O. Murao, M. Fujioka, H. Kanegae, F. Yamazaki, M. Estrada, and A. Bisbal, “A Simulation Model for Forecasting Urban Vulnerability to Earthquake Disasters in Lima, Peru: “LIMA-UVEQ”,” J. Disaster Res., Vol.9, No.6, pp. 1069-1077, doi: 10.20965/jdr.2014.p1069, 2014.
  9. [9] F. Yamazaki and C. Zavala, “SATREPS Project on Enhancement of Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation Technology in Peru,” J. Disaster Res., Vol.8, No.2, pp. 224-234, doi: 10.20965/jdr.2013.p0224, 2013.
  10. [10] Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) and Yangon City Development Committee (YCDC), “The Republic of the Union of Myanmar, A Strategic Urban Development Plan of Greater Yangon, The Project for the Strategic Urban Development Plan of the Greater Yangon,” 2014, [accessed October 25, 2015]
  11. [11] T. Sritarapipat and W. Takeuchi, “Estimating Land Value and Disaster Risk in Urban Area in Yangon, Myanmar Using Stereo High-resolution Images and Multi-temporal Landsat Images,” Proc. of 36th Asian Conf. on Remote Sensing (ACRS), 2015.
  12. [12] T. Sritarapipat and W. Takeuchi, “Building Classification in Yangon City, Myanmar Using Stereo GeoEye Images, Landsat Image and Night-time Light Data,” Remote Sensing Applications: Society and Environment, Vol.6, pp. 46-51, 2017.
  13. [13] O. Murao, T. Usuda, H. Gokon, K. Meguro, W. Takeuchi, K. Sugiyasu, and K. T. Yu, “Understanding Regional Building Characteristics in Yangon Based on Digital Building Model,” J. Disaster Res., Vol.13, No.1, doi: 10.20965/jdr.2018.p0125, pp. 125-137, 2018.
  14. [14] Myanmar Information Management Unit, “Myanmar States/Divisions and Townships,” 2007, [accessed June 18, 2019]
  15. [15] H. H. Aung, “Potential Seismicity of Yangon Region (Geological Approach),” Advances in Geosciences, Vol.26, pp. 139-151, 2010.
  16. [16] H. L. Chhibber, “The Geology of Burma,” Macmillan, 1934.
  17. [17] Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), HAZUS, updated on Feb. 19, 2019, [accessed March 14, 2019]
  18. [18] C. Gadagamma, A. Min, H. Gokon, K. Meguro, and K. Yu, “Development of Fragility Functions of RC Buildings in Yangon City Using Push over Analysis,” J. Disaster Res., Vol.13, No.1, pp. 31-39, doi: 10.20965/jdr.2018.p0031, 2018.
  19. [19] N. Hara, H. Gokon, and K. Meguro, “Development of Earthquake Fragility Functions for Reinforced Concrete Buildings Considering Actual Condition in Yangon, Myanmar,” Seisan Kenkyu, Vol.70, Issue 4, pp. 223-227, 2018 (in Japanese).
  20. [20] O. Murao, H. Gokon, K. Meguro, and K. T. Yu, “Tentative Building Vulnerability Assessment of Yangon,” Proc. of the 7th Int. Conf. on Science and Engineering 2016 (USB), 2016.
  21. [21] Myanmar Department of Population Ministry of Immigration and Population (MOIP), “The 2014 Myanmar Population and Housing Census Yangon Region,” 2015, [accessed October 30, 2018]
  22. [22] Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA), “The Updated Strategic Urban Development Plan of Greater Yangon, The Project for Updating the Strategic Urban Development Plan of the Greater Yangon,” 2018, [accessed March 30, 2019]

*This site is desgined based on HTML5 and CSS3 for modern browsers, e.g. Chrome, Firefox, Safari, Edge, Opera.

Last updated on Jun. 19, 2024