Eruption Scenarios of Active Volcanoes in Indonesia
Setsuya Nakada*1,*2,, Fukashi Maeno*2, Mitsuhiro Yoshimoto*3, Natsumi Hokanishi*2, Taketo Shimano*4, Akhmad Zaennudin*5, and Masato Iguchi*6
*1National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Resilience
3-1 Tennoudai, Tsukuba 305-0006, Japan
*2Earthquake Research Institute, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan
*3Mount Fuji Research Institute, Yamanashi Prefectural Government, Yamanashi, Japan
*4Graduate School of Environmental and Disaster Research, Tokoha University, Shizuoka, Japan
*5Center for Volcanology and Geological Hazard Mitigation, Bandung, Indonesia
*6Sakurajima Volcano Research Center, Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University, Kagoshima, Japan
Eruption scenarios were prepared as possible sequences in event trees for six active volcanoes in Indonesia, that are located near populated areas or have erupted in recent years (Galunggung, Guntur, Kelud, Merapi, Semeru, and Sinabung). The event trees prepared here show sequences of possible eruption phenomena without probabilities on branches and cover sequences experienced in historical and pre-historical eruptions based on archives and field research results. Changing magma discharge rates during eruption sequences were considered for the event tree of Merapi. This conceptual event tree can also be used as a short-term event tree in which forecasting the coming eruption became possible with geophysical and geochemical monitoring data. Eruption event trees prepared for selected time windows cannot illustrate all plausible hazards and risks associated with an eruption. Therefore, hazards and risks generated from an eruption should be considered in different domains from the event tree.
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