Wide-Area Evacuation Simulation Incorporating Rescue and Firefighting by Local Residents
Toshihiro Osaragi and Takuya Oki†
Tokyo Institute of Technology
2-12-1-W8-10, O-okayama, Meguro-ku, Tokyo 152-8552, Japan
This article describes the development of a comprehensive simulation model that integrates property damages (building-collapse, fire-spreading, and street-blockage) and various activities (rescue activity, firefighting activity, and wide-area evacuation activity) by local residents in the event of a large earthquake. Using this model, we analyze the effect and risk of rescue and firefighting activities carried out by local residents under the assumption that a large earthquake directly hits the Tokyo area. Furthermore, we attempt to find new knowledge on the situations where there are many fatal casualties caused by people failing to evacuate, being trapped on streets, and so on.
-  T. Oki and T. Osaragi, “Modeling Human Behavior of Local Residents in the Aftermath of a Large Earthquake: Wide-area Evacuation, Rescue and Firefighting in Densely Built-up Wooden Residential Areas,” Journal of Disaster Research, Vol. 11, No. 2, pp. 188-197, 2016.
-  T. Oki, T. Osaragi, and N. Hirokawa, “Effects and Risk of Rescue and Firefighting by Local Residents in a Large Earthquake,” Papers and Proc. of the Geographic Information Systems Association, Vol. 25, C-4-1, 2016 (in Japanese).
-  T. Oki and T. Osaragi, “Wide-area Evacuation Difficulty in Densely-built Wooden Residential Areas,” Proc. of the ISCRAM 2016 Conf., 2016.
-  O. Murao and F. Yamazaki, “Development of Fragility Curves for Buildings Based on Damage Survey Data of a Local Government after the 1995 Hyogoken-nanbu Earthquake,” J. of Struct. and Const. Eng., No. 527, pp. 189-196, 2000 (in Japanese).
-  Tokyo Metropolitan Gorvernment, “Estimation of Earthquake Damage in Tokyo,” 2012 (in Japanese), http://www.bousai.metro.tokyo.jp/taisaku/1000902/1000401.html [accessed Sep. 13, 2016].
-  F. Ichikawa, T. Sakata, and T. Yoshikawa, “An analysis of accessibility to spaces for disaster refuge considering danger of street-blockades caused by collapse of buildings on evacuation routes,” Theory and Appl. of GIS, Vol.12, No.1, pp. 47-56, 2004 (in Japanese).
-  N. Hirokawa and T. Osaragi, “Earthquake Disaster Simulation System: Integration of Models for Building Collapse, Road Blockage, and Fire Spread,” Journal of Disaster Research, Vol. 11, No. 2, pp. 175-187, 2016.
-  T. Mabuchi, M. Kaneko, S. Takamiya, and Y. Nakao, “Estimation Method of the Amount of Disaster Debris on Streets”, Proc. of the JAEE Annual Meeting, Japan Assoc. for Earthq. Eng., pp. 346-347, 2012 (in Japanese).
-  Tokyo Fire Department, “Provision and Elucidation of New Factor of Fire and Fire Spread Behavior Considering Inland Earthquakes,” The 12th Report of Fire Prevention Council, 1997 (in Japanese).
-  Tokyo Fire Department, “Provision and Elucidation of Risk Factor after Large Earthquake in Civilization,” The 16th Report of Fire Prevention Council, 2005 (in Japanese).
-  Tokyo Fire Department, “Measures to Reduce Human Damage from Fires after Earthquakes,” The 21st Report of Fire Prevention Council, 2015 (in Japanese).
-  Tokyo Fire Department, “Development and Application of Evaluation Method for Preventing Ability of Earthquake Fire,” The 14th Report of Fire Prevention Council, 2001 (in Japanese).
-  Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport, “Developments of Technology and Evaluation Index of Disaster Mitigation for Planning Local Areas,” 2003 (in Japanese).
-  T. Iwami, I. Hagiwara, N. Ishii, and W. Katsumata, “A Fundamental Study on the Relationships between Street Space Conditions and Fire Safety in a City”, Summ. of technical papers of Annual Meeting Archit. Inst. of Japan, F-1, pp. 589-590, 2006 (in Japanese).
-  H. Takeda, H. Murakami, Y. Ohta, Y. Kuwata, and S. Takada, “Comparison of Occupant Entrapment in Higashinada Wand and Hokudan Town in the 1995 Hyogo-ken Nanbu Earthquake,” Proc. of the Annual Conf. of the Inst. of Soc. Safety Sci., No. 11, pp. 49-52, 2001 (in Japanese).
-  Y. Ohta, M. Koyama, and Y. Watoh, “Attempt of Figuring Life Span Characteristics after an Earthquake: Revision and Supplement – In Case of the Hyougoken-Nanbu Earthquake–,” Reports of Tono Res. Inst. Earthq. Sci., Seq. 7, pp. 93-100, 2001 (in Japanese).
-  T. Furuya and S. Sadohara, “Modelling and Simulation of Rescue Activity by the Local Residents in the Seismic Disaster,” ESRI Int. User Conf., 2004.
-  Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science, and Technology, “Physical Fitness and Athletic Performance Tests,” 2013 (in Japanese).
-  Tokyo Fire Department, “Provision for Earthquake That Should Be Immediately Implemented in Densely-built Wooden Residential Areas in Order to Achieve Objectives for Disaster Mitigation,” The 19th Report of Fire Prevention Council, 2011 (in Japanese).
-  T. Osaragi, “Estimating Spatio-Temporal Distribution of Railroad Users and Its Application to Disaster Prevention Planning,” AGILE Conf. on Geographic Information Science, Lecture Notes in Geoinformation and Cartography, Advances in GIScience, Springer, pp. 233-250, 2009.
-  T. Osaragi and T. Hoshino, “Predicting Spatiotemporal Distribution of Transient Occupants in Urban Areas,” Bridging the Geographic Information Sciences. Heidelberg, Springer International Publishing, pp. 307-325, 2012.
-  T. Osaragi, “Spatiotemporal Distribution of Automobile Users: Estimation Method and Applications to Disaster Mitigation Planning,” 12th Int. Conf. on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (ISCRAM 2015), Proc. of the ISCRAM 2015 Conf., 2015.
-  Y. Nishida, “Fire-spreading and Evacuation in Great Kanto Earthquake,” Historical Earthquakes, No. 24, p. 166, 2009 (in Japanese).
-  Tokyo Metropolitan Government, “Disaster Preparedness Tokyo,” Evacuation Flow Chart, pp. 40-41, 2015, http://www.metro.tokyo.jp/ENGLISH/GUIDE/BOSAI/FILES/01_Simulation_of_a_Major_Earthquake.pdf [accessed Sep. 14, 2016].
-  A. Willis, N. Gjersoe, C. Havard, J. Kerridge, and R. Kukla, “Human Movement Behaviour in Urban Spaces: Implications for the Design and Modelling of Effective Pedestrian Environments,” Environment and Plann. B: Plann. and Design 2004, Vol. 31, No. 6, pp. 805-828, 2004.
-  Tokyo Metropolitan Government, “Present Situation of Disaster Prevention Projects by Municipalities,” 2011 (in Japanese).
-  S. Midorikawa, K. Fujimoto, and I. Muramatsu, “Correlation of New J.M.A. Instrumental Seismic Intensity with Former J.M.A. Seismic Intensity and Ground Motion Parameters,” J. of Soc. Safety Sci., No. 1, pp. 51-56, 1999 (in Japanese).
-  K. Fujimoto and S. Midorikawa, “Empirical Relationship between JMA Instrumental Seismic Intensity and Ground Motion Parameters Considering the Effect of Earthquake Magnitude,” J. of JAEE, Vol. 10, No. 2, pp. 1-11, 2010 (in Japanese).
-  T. Osaragi, T. Oki, and N. Hirokawa, “Activities of Local Residents: Rescue, Firefighting, and Wide-Area Evacuation,” Papers of Fire Prevention Research Committee of 2016 Annual Meeting Archit. Inst. of Japan: City Fire and Evacuation Simulation, pp. 3-12, 2016 (in Japanese).
This article is published under a Creative Commons Attribution-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.