Evaluation of Water Cycle Components with Standardized Indices Under Climate Change in the Pampanga, Solo and Chao Phraya Basins
Maksym Gusyev*1,*2,†, Akira Hasegawa*1,*2, Jun Magome*3, Patricia Sanchez*1, Ai Sugiura*1,*4, Hitoshi Umino*1, Hisaya Sawano*1, and Yoshio Tokunaga*1
*1International Centre for Water Hazard and Risk Management (ICHARM), Public Works Research Institute (PWRI),
1-6 Minamihara, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8516, Japan
*2National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies (GRIPS), Tokyo, Japan
*3International Research Centre for River Basin Environment (ICRE), University of Yamanashi, Kofu, Japan
*4UNESCO Office Jakarta, Jakarta, Indonesia
Drought is a slow-developing disaster of water shortages in water cycle components adversely affecting anthropogenic water use. This study introduces a drought assessment framework of standardized indices in Pampanga (Philippines), Solo (Indonesia), and Chao Phraya (Thailand) basins. We used three existing and developed two new standardized indices to characterize meteorological, agricultural, hydrological and socio-economic droughts. We constructed a 15-arcsec (about 0.45-km) grid block-wise TOP (BTOP) model with multipurpose dam operation at individual river basin using global datasets and calibrated BTOP models with daily river discharge and dam inflow data. The simulated irrigated area is also compared with historical drought damages at each river basin. The calibrated BTOP models were run with bias-corrected MRI-AGCM3.2S precipitation to evaluate droughts under climate change. The calculated standardized indices show similar drought timing of the 1982-1983, 1987-1988, 1991-1992, 1997-1998 and 2002-2003 droughts across three river basins. In addition, the timing of these droughts coincides with historical El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle events. The projected future climates demonstrate a variability of dam inflows and drought severities between four cases of the worst (RCP8.5) climate change scenario. We conclude that standardized indices are useful tools to characterize droughts at water cycle components.
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