The Impact of Disasters on Japan’s Inbound Tourism Demand
Lihui Wu* and Haruo Hayashi**
*Graduate School of Informatics, Kyoto University, 36-1 Yoshida-Honmachi, Sakyo-ku, Kyoto 606-8501, Japan
**Disaster Prevention Research Institute (DPRI), Kyoto University, Gokasho, Uji, Kyoto 611-0011, Japan
The purpose of this study is to explore the impact of disasters on international tourism demand for Japan by applying Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) intervention models that focus on evaluating change patterns and the duration of effects by observing variations in parameters. Japan suffered a variety of disasters, especially natural disasters due to its geographical location, so we have divided these disasters into three types: geological disasters, extreme weather events and “others” such as terrorist attacks, infectious diseases, and economic crises. Based on the principle of preparing for the worst, we selected 4 cases for each disaster type, for 12 in all. Results suggest that (1) large-scale disasters such as great earthquakes impacted negatively on inbound tourism demand for Japan; (2) not all disasters resulted in an abrupt drop in inbound tourist arrivals, extreme weather events, for example, did not decrease inbound tourism demand significantly; (3) impact caused by disasters was temporary.
-  P. E.Murphy and R. Bayley, “Tourism and disaster planning,” Geographical Review, Vol.79, No.1, pp. 3646, 1989.
-  D. Frechtling, “Forecasting tourism demand, methods and strategies,” Oxford: Butterworth Heinemann, 2001.
-  Japan National Tourism Organization, press release,
http://www.jnto.go.jp/info/statistics/pdfs/040412stat.pdf [accessed June 3, 2013]
-  Japan Tourism Agency, Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism, “The message from the Director General,” July 20, 2012,
http://www.mlit.go.jp/kankocho/topics08_000085.html [accessed April 10, 2013]
-  Y. Mansfeld, “Cycles of war, terror, and peace: Determinants and management of crisis and recovery of the Israeli tourism industry,” Journal of Travel Research, Vol.38, No.1, pp. 30-36, 1999.
-  J. H. Huang and J. C. H.Min, “Earthquake devastation and recovery in tourism: The Taiwan case,” Tourism Management, Vol.23, pp. 145-154, 2002.
-  J. Ichinosawa, “Reputational disaster in Phuket: The secondary impact of the Tsunami on inbound tourism,” Disaster Prevention and Management, Vol.15, No.1, pp. 111-123, 2006.
-  H. I. Kuo, C. C. Chen, W. C. Tseng, L. F. Ju, and B. W. Huang, “Assessing impacts of SARS and Avian Fu on international tourism demand to Asia,” TourismManagement, Vol.29, pp. 917-928, 2008.
-  J. E. Araña and C. J. León, “The impact of terrorism on tourism demand,” Annals of Tourism Research, Vol.35, No.2, pp. 299-315, 2008.
-  Y. S. Wang, “The impact of crisis events and macroeconomic activity on Taiwan’s international inbound tourism demand,” Tourism Management, Vol.30, pp. 7582, 2009.
-  L. H. Wu and H. Hayashi, “The Impact of the Great East Japan Earthquake on Inbound Tourism Demand in Japan,” Journal of Institute of Social Safety Science, No.21, 2013.
-  M. Mazzocchi and A. Montini, “Earthquake effects on tourism in central Italy,” Annals of Tourism Research, Vol.28, No.4, pp. 1031-1046, 2001.
-  W. Yang, G. Chen, and D. Wang, “Impact of the Wenchuan Earthquake on tourism in Sichuan, China,” Journal of Mountain Science, Vol.5, No.3, pp. 194-208, 2008.
-  C. H. Orchiston, “Tourism and Seismic Risk: perceptions, preparedness and resilience in the zone of the Alpine Fault, Southern Alps, New Zealand,” Doctoral dissertation, University of Otago, 2010.
-  T. A. Birkland, P. Herabat, R. G. Little, and W. A. Wallace, “The impact of the December 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami on tourism in Thailand,” Earthquake Spectra, Vol.22, No.S3, pp. 889-900, 2006.
-  J. C. Carlsen and M. Hughes, “Tourism market recovery in the Maldives after the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami,” Journal of Travel and Tourism Marketing, Vol.23, pp. 139-149, 2008.
-  A.Bigano, A. Goria, J. Hamilton, and R. Tol, “The effect of climate change and extreme weather events on tourism,” CMCC Research Paper, No.1, 2005.
-  R. Pine and B. McKercher, “The impact of SARS on Hong Kong’s tourism industry,” International Journal of Contemporary Hospitality Management, Vol.16, No.2, pp. 139-143, 2004.
-  G. C. Chow, “Tests of equality between sets of coefficients in two linear regressions,” Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, pp. 591-605, 1960.
-  G. E. Box and G. C. Tiao, “Intervention analysis with applications to economic and environmental problems,” Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol.70, No.349, pp. 70-79, 1975.
-  L. J. McCain and R. McCleary, “The Statistical Analysis of the Simple Interrupted Time-Series Quasi-Experiment,” Quasi-Experimentation Design and Analysis Issues for Field Settings, Houghton Mifflin Co., pp. 233-293, 1979.
-  C. Lim, “Review of international tourism demand models. Annals of Tourism research,” Vol.24, No.4, pp. 835-849, 1997.
-  C. Lim, “A meta-analytic review of international tourism demand,” Journal of Travel Research, Vol.37, No.3, pp. 273-284, 1999.
-  S. F. Witt and C. A. Martin, “Econometric models for forecasting international tourism demand,” Journal of Travel Research, Vol.25, No.3, pp. 23-30, 1987.
-  T. Nishimura, Y. Kajitani, and H. Tatano, “Damage assessment in tourism caused by an earthquake disaster,” IDRiM Journal, Vol.3, 2013.
-  S. Lee, C. O. Oh, and J. T. O’Leary, “Estimating the impact of the September 11 terrorist attacks on the US air transport passenger demand using intervention analysis,” Tourism Analysis, Vol.9, No.4, pp. 355-361, 2005.
-  L. Hultkrantz and C. Olsson, “Chernobyl effects on domestic inbound and tourism in Sweden – a time series analysis. Environ. Resour,” Econ., Vol.9, pp. 239-258, 1997.
-  J. T. Coshall. “The threat of terrorism as an intervention on international travel flows,” Journal of Travel Research, Vol.42, No.1, pp. 4-12, 2003.
-  J. C. Min, “Intervention analysis of inbound tourism: A case study of Taiwan. Advances in Hospitality and Leisure,” Vol.4, pp. 53-74, 2008.
-  J. C. Min, C. Lim and H. H. Kung, “Intervention analysis of SARS on Japanese tourism demand for Taiwan,” Quality & Quantity, Vol.45, No.1, pp. 91-102, 2011.
-  C. Goh and R. Law, “Modeling and forecasting tourism demand for arrivals with stochastic nonstationary seasonality and intervention,” Tourism Management, Vol.23, No.5, pp. 499-510, 2002.
-  C. K. Lee, H. J. Song, and J.W.Mjelde, “The forecasting of International Expo tourism using quantitative and qualitative techniques,” Tourism Management, Vol.29, No.6, pp. 1084-1098, 2008.
-  S. L. Lai and W. L. Lu, “Impact analysis of September 11 on air travel demand in the USA,” Journal of Air Transport Management, Vol.11, No.6, pp. 455-458, 2005.
-  G. M. Ljung and G. E. P. Box “On a measure of lack of fit in time series models,” Biometrika, Vol.65, No.2, pp. 297-303, 1978.
-  Japan Meteorological Agency, “the statistical materials of major earthquakes in Japan,”
http://www.seisvol.kishou.go.jp/eq/higai/higai1996-new.html [accessed January 16, 2013]
-  Fire and Disaster Management Agency of the Government of Japan, “About the 2011 earthquake off the Pacific coast of Tohoku (The Great East Japan Earthquake),” the 146th report, September 28, 2012,
http://www.fdma.go.jp/bn/higaihou/pdf/jishin/146.pdf [accessed January 16, 2013]
-  S. Tanabe, M. Higashita, and H. Hayashi, “Study on damage of the tourist business and social business caused by Swine-origin Influenza A/H1N1 in Kobe, 2009,” Proceedings of the annual conference of the Institute of Social Safety Science, No.17, pp. 101-108, 2012.
-  B. Faulkner, “Towards a framework for tourism disaster management,” Tourism Management, Vol.22, pp. 135-147, 2001.
-  G. King, “Crisis management & team effectiveness: a closer examination,” Journal of Business Ethics, Vol.41, No.3, pp. 235-249, 2002.
-  N. Maki, T. Keiko, and H. Hayashi, “Development of Strategic Disaster Reduction Planning Scheme with Stakeholder Involvement; Tools for Performance Measure Setting,” The 14th World Conf. on Earthquake Engineering, 2008.
-  G. Urakawa and H. Hayashi “How Business Flow Diagram’s Improve Continuity of Operations Planning,” Journal of Disaster Research, Vol.5, No.6, pp. 494-502, 2010.