A Simulation Model for Forecasting Urban Vulnerability to Earthquake Disasters in Lima, Peru: “LIMA-UVEQ”
Hideki Kaji*1, Osamu Murao*2, Masaki Fujioka*3,
Hidehiko Kanegae*4, Fumio Yamazaki*5, Miguel Estrada*6,
and Alberto Bisbal*7
*1Department of Policy Science, Ritsumeikan University, 2-23-15 Sekimachikita, Nerima, Tokyo 177-0051, Japan
*2Tohoku University, Japan
*3Tokyo Institute of Technology, Japan
*4Ritsumeikan University, Japan
*5Chiba University, Japan
*6Universidad Nacional de Ingeniería (UNI), Peru
*7Presidency of the Council of Ministers, Peru (PCM), Peru
Looking ahead ten or twenty years, the urban population will inevitably increase in the Lima Metropolitan Area (LMA) of Peru. Various urban development projects will naturally be implemented in order to accommodate the additional population, and this could increase vulnerability to disasters from earthquakes if no corrective actions are taken. A computer simulation model termed LIMA-UVEQ was developed so that we could forecast the region’s vulnerability to earthquake disasters over the next twenty years. Two cases were evaluated: one where some earthquake damage mitigationmeasures are incorporated with urban development projects and another where no such measures are implemented. With the modeling results, we then try to propose an appropriate policy mix that can be implemented in line with urban growth.
Hidehiko Kanegae, Fumio Yamazaki, Miguel Estrada, and
and Alberto Bisbal, “A Simulation Model for Forecasting Urban Vulnerability to Earthquake Disasters in Lima, Peru: “LIMA-UVEQ”,” J. Disaster Res., Vol.9, No.6, pp. 1069-1077, 2014.
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