A Simulation Model for Forecasting Urban Vulnerability to Earthquake Disasters in Lima, Peru: “LIMA-UVEQ”

Hideki Kaji; Osamu Murao; Masaki Fujioka; Hidehiko Kanegae; Fumio Yamazaki; Miguel Estrada; Alberto Bisbal

doi:10.20965/jdr.2014.p1069

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JDR Vol.9 No.6 pp. 1069-1077

(2014)

doi: 10.20965/jdr.2014.p1069

Paper:

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A Simulation Model for Forecasting Urban Vulnerability to Earthquake Disasters in Lima, Peru: “LIMA-UVEQ”

Hideki Kaji^1, Osamu Murao^2, Masaki Fujioka^3,
Hidehiko Kanegae^4, Fumio Yamazaki^5, Miguel Estrada^6,
and Alberto Bisbal^*7

^*1Department of Policy Science, Ritsumeikan University, 2-23-15 Sekimachikita, Nerima, Tokyo 177-0051, Japan

^*2Tohoku University, Japan

^*3Tokyo Institute of Technology, Japan

^*4Ritsumeikan University, Japan

^*5Chiba University, Japan

^*6Universidad Nacional de Ingeniería (UNI), Peru

^*7Presidency of the Council of Ministers, Peru (PCM), Peru

Received:

July 1, 2014

Accepted:

September 20, 2014

Published:

December 1, 2014

Keywords:

population growth, Lima Metropolitan Area, vulnerability, land use, computer simulation

Abstract

Looking ahead ten or twenty years, the urban population will inevitably increase in the Lima Metropolitan Area (LMA) of Peru. Various urban development projects will naturally be implemented in order to accommodate the additional population, and this could increase vulnerability to disasters from earthquakes if no corrective actions are taken. A computer simulation model termed LIMA-UVEQ was developed so that we could forecast the region’s vulnerability to earthquake disasters over the next twenty years. Two cases were evaluated: one where some earthquake damage mitigationmeasures are incorporated with urban development projects and another where no such measures are implemented. With the modeling results, we then try to propose an appropriate policy mix that can be implemented in line with urban growth.

Cite this article as:

H. Kaji, O. Murao, M. Fujioka, H. Kanegae, F. Yamazaki, M. Estrada, and A. Bisbal, “A Simulation Model for Forecasting Urban Vulnerability to Earthquake Disasters in Lima, Peru: “LIMA-UVEQ”,” J. Disaster Res., Vol.9 No.6, pp. 1069-1077, 2014.

Data files:

References

[1] Ana Ma Fernández-Maldonado, “Barriadas and elite in Lima, Peru: Recent trends of urban integration and disintegration,” 42^nd ISo-CaRP Congress 2006.
[2] http://www.lima-water.de/en/lima.html [accessed March 12, 2013]
[3] Organization of American States, “Primer on Natural Hazard Management in Integrated Regional Development Planning,” 1991.
[4] SIRAD Study, “Resources for Immediate Response and Early Recovery in the Occurrence of an earthquake and /or Tsunami in Lima and Callao,” 2011.
[5] Y. Hirano , S. Midorikawa, and H. Miura, “Evaluation of Building Distribution Using GIS Data and Satellite Images – Part 2. Case Study for Mid- and High-rise Residential Areas in Lima, Peru –,” Proceedings of AIJ, 2012.
[6] Institute Metropolitano De Planificacion, “del Plano de Zonificacion General de Lima Metropolitana,”
http://www.munlima.gob.pe/imp/zonificacion.html [accessed June 20, 2013]

This article is published under a Creative Commons Attribution-NoDerivatives 4.0 Internationa License.

[1] [1] Ana Ma Fernández-Maldonado, “Barriadas and elite in Lima, Peru: Recent trends of urban integration and disintegration,” 42^nd ISo-CaRP Congress 2006.

[2] [2] http://www.lima-water.de/en/lima.html [accessed March 12, 2013]

[3] [3] Organization of American States, “Primer on Natural Hazard Management in Integrated Regional Development Planning,” 1991.

[4] [4] SIRAD Study, “Resources for Immediate Response and Early Recovery in the Occurrence of an earthquake and /or Tsunami in Lima and Callao,” 2011.

[5] [5] Y. Hirano , S. Midorikawa, and H. Miura, “Evaluation of Building Distribution Using GIS Data and Satellite Images – Part 2. Case Study for Mid- and High-rise Residential Areas in Lima, Peru –,” Proceedings of AIJ, 2012.

[6] [6] Institute Metropolitano De Planificacion, “del Plano de Zonificacion General de Lima Metropolitana,”
http://www.munlima.gob.pe/imp/zonificacion.html [accessed June 20, 2013]

A Simulation Model for Forecasting Urban Vulnerability to Earthquake Disasters in Lima, Peru: “LIMA-UVEQ”

Hideki Kaji*1, Osamu Murao*2, Masaki Fujioka*3, Hidehiko Kanegae*4, Fumio Yamazaki*5, Miguel Estrada*6, and Alberto Bisbal*7

Hideki Kaji^1, Osamu Murao^2, Masaki Fujioka^3,
Hidehiko Kanegae^4, Fumio Yamazaki^5, Miguel Estrada^6,
and Alberto Bisbal^*7