Simulation of Tsunami Inundation in Central Peru from Future Megathrust Earthquake Scenarios
Erick Mas*1, Bruno Adriano*2, Nelson Pulido*3,
Cesar Jimenez*4, and Shunichi Koshimura*1
*1Laboratory of Remote Sensing and Geoinformatics for Disaster Management, International Research Institute of Disaster Science, Tohoku University, Aoba 468-1, Aramaki, Aoba-ku, Sendai, Miyagi, Japan
*2Graduate School of Engineering, Tohoku University, Miyagi, Japan
*3National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention (NIED), Ibaraki, Japan
*4Universidad Nacional Mayor de San Marcos Fenlab., Lima, Peru
We estimated, from twelve scenarios of potential megathrust earthquakes, the tsunami impact on the Lima-Callao region in Central Peru. In addition, we conducted hazard mapping using the local envelope of the maximum inundation simulated in these scenarios. The deterministic approach is supported by the decades of geodetic measurements in this area that characterize the interseismic strain build up since historical megathrust earthquakes. The earthquake scenarios for simulation proposed in  introduce spatially correlated short-wavelength slip heterogeneities to a first slip model in  calculated from the interseismic coupling (ISC) distribution in Central Peru. The ISC was derived from GPS monitoring data as well as from historical earthquake information. The results of strong ground motion simulations in  reported that the slip scenario with the deepest average peak values along the strike (Mw = 8.86) generates the largest PGA in the Lima-Callao area. In this study, we found from tsunami simulation results that the slip model with the largest peak slip at a shallow depth (Mw = 8.87) yielded the highest tsunami inundation. Such differences in maximum scenarios for peak ground acceleration and tsunami height reveal the importance of a comprehensive assessment of earthquake and tsunami hazards in order to provide plausible worstcase scenarios for disaster risk management and education.
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