A Quantitative Estimate of Vulnerable People and Evaluation of Flood Evacuation Policy
Karina Vink*,**, Kuniyoshi Takeuchi**, and Kelly M. Kibler**
*National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies (GRIPS), Disaster Management Program (DMP), National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies, 7-22-1 Roppongi, Minato, Tokyo 106-8677, Japan
**International Centre for Water Hazard and Risk Management (ICHARM), 1-6 Minamihara, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8516, Japan
Disaster Risk Management (DRM) laws and policies ideally contain measures to reduce disaster risk to all exposed people equally, even the most vulnerable people. To investigate this, we estimate the number of potentially vulnerable people in areas exposed to flood hazard, and evaluate the laws and policies which aim to reduce vulnerability. We proposed a theoretical framework based on four recognized characteristics of vulnerability (less physically or mentally capable; fewer material and/or financial resources; less access to information, and restricted by commitments) and created indicators for six groups of potentially vulnerable people: children, older adults, minorities, people with disabilities, people living in poverty, and women. We applied the framework to the populations of Japan, the Netherlands, and the United States, and proposed a new DRM policy evaluation method; and found that measures in DRM laws and policies are not in proportion to the number of potentially vulnerable people. The most numerous indicators included children aged 0-14, women with no car, and people with pets. The top ten indicators account for 80% of all potentially vulnerable people. When addressing the needs of vulnerable people from a policy perspective, these top ten indicators may serve as a starting point in order to increase the resilience of the vulnerable population. Seven of these ten are identical across the three case study countries, meaning the countries can learn from each other’s measures and possibly apply them in their own area. Policy evaluation showed that while many laws and policies do recognize various groups of potentially vulnerable people, they lack detailed support measures. Much remains to be amended in policies on all scale levels if the policies are to realize an equal disaster risk for all exposed people.
-  EM-DAT, “Number of people reported affected by natural disasters 1900-2011,” the OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database, 2012,
http://www.emdat.be/sites/default/files/Trends/natural/world_1900_2011/affyr1.pdf [accessed October 24, 2013]
-  IPCC, “Managing the risks of extreme events and disasters to advance climate change adaptation,” Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, and New York, NY, USA, 2012,
https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/special-reports/srex/SREX FD SPM final.pdf [accessed June 17, 2014]
-  EM-DAT, “Number of people killed by natural disasters 1975-2011” and “Estimated damages (US$billion) caused by reported natural disasters 1975-2011,” the OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database, 2011,
http://www.emdat.be/natural-disasters-trends [accessed June 17, 2014]
-  F. Thomalla, T. Downing, E. Spanger-Siegfried, G. Han, and J. Rockström, “Reducing hazard vulnerability: towards a common approach between disaster risk reduction and climate adaptation,” Disasters, 2006, doi: 10.1111/j.1467-9523.2006.00305.x
-  B. Jongman, P. J. Ward, and J. C. J. H. Aerts, “Global exposure to river and coastal flooding: long term trends and changes,” Glob. Environ. Chang., 2012, doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2012.07.004
-  C. J. Vörösmarty, L. Bravo de Guinni, W. M. Wollheim, B. Pellerin, D. Bjerklie, M. Cardoso, C. D’Almeida, P. Green, and L. Colon, “Extreme rainfall, vulnerability and risk: a continental-scale assessment for South America,” Philos. Trans. Of the R. Soc. Publ., 2013, doi: 10.1098/rsta.2012.0408
-  O. D. Cardona, “The need for rethinking the concepts of vulnerability and risk from a holistic perspective: a necessary review and criticism for effective risk management,” in: G. Bankoff, D. Frerks, D. Hillhorst (Eds), “Mapping vulnerability: disasters, development and people” (1st Ed.), Earthscan Publishers, London, pp. 37-51, 2004.
-  S. B. Manyena, “The concept of resilience revisited,” Disasters, 2006, doi: 10.1111/j.0361-3666.2006.00331.x
-  B. Yarnal, “Vulnerability and all that jazz: addressing vulnerability in New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina,” Technol. in Soc., 2007 doi:10.1016/j.techsoc.2007.01.011
-  J. R. Lindsay, “The determinants of disaster vulnerability: achieving sustainable mitigation through population health,” Nat. Hazards, 2003, doi: 10.1023/A:1022969705867
-  UNISDR, “United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction 2009,” UNIDSR Terminology on Disaster Risk Reduction, UNISDR., 2009,
http://www.unisdr.org/files/7817_UNISDRTerminology English.pdf [accessed October 24, 2013]
-  B. Wisner, J. C. Gaillard, and I. Kelman, “Framing disaster,” In: B. Wisner, J. C. Gaillard, I. Kelman (Eds), “The Routledge handbook of hazards and disaster risk reduction” (1st Ed.), Routledge, New York, pp. 18-33, 2012.
-  K. Vink and K. Takeuchi, “International comparison of measures taken for vulnerable people in disaster risk management laws,” Int. J. of Disaster Risk Reduct., 2013, Doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2013.02.002
-  D. J. Crawford-Brown, “Risk-based environmental decisions: culture and methods” (1st Ed.), Kluwer Academic Publishers, Norwell, p. 117, 1999.
-  A. Kuijvenhoven, “Vrouwen en kinderen eerst ? Zelfredzaamheid bij rampen,” Koninklijke Vermande, Den Haag, 2005.
-  Y. Honkawa, “Current social data catalogue (Shakai jitsujō deeta zuroku),” 2001 (in Japanese),
http://www2.ttcn.ne.jp/honkawa/4362.html [accessed 24 October 2013]
and http://www2.ttcn.ne.jp/honkawa/4363f.html [accessed October 24, 2013]
-  Statistics Bureau, “Visible statistics of the status of cities, wards, town, villages 2013, A population/households (Toukei de miru shikuchouson no sugata 2013, A jinkou/setai),” Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications (MIC), 2013 (in Japanese),
http://www.e-stat.go.jp/SG1/estat/List.do?bid=000001048449&cycode=0 [accessed October 24, 2013]
-  J. Brunkard, G. Nuamulanda, and R. Ratard, “Hurricane Katrina Deaths, Lousiana, 2005,” Disaster Med. and Public Health Prep., 2008, doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1097/DMP.0b013e31818aaf55
-  United States Census Bureau, “Age groups and sex, New Orleans city, Louisiana,” Census Bureau, 2012,
http://factfinder2.census.gov/faces/tableservices/jsf/pages/productview.xhtml?pid=DEC_00_SF1_QTP1&prodType=table [accessed October 24, 2013]
-  M. Sawai, “Who is vulnerable during tsunamis? Experiences from the Great East Japan Earthquake 2011 and the Indian Ocean Tsunami 2004,” UNESCAP, 2012,
http://www.unescap.org/idd/working%20papers/IDD-DRS-who-is-vulnerable-duringtsunamis.pdf [accessed October 24, 2013]
-  N. Laframboise and B. Loko, “Natural Disasters: Mitigating Impact, Managing Risks,” International Monetary Fund, 2012,
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2012/wp12245.pdf [accessed October 24, 2013]
-  D. Alexander, J. C. Gaillard, and B. Wisner, “Disability and disaster,” In: B.Wisner, J. C. Gaillard, I. Kelman (Eds.), “The Routledge handbook of hazards and disaster risk reduction” (1 st Ed.), Routledge, New York, pp. 413-423, 2012.
-  M. Hada, H. Nakamura, and I. Okaki, “The next generation tsunami hazard map,” In: A. Chavoshian, K. Takeuchi (Eds.), “Floods: from risk to opportunity” (1st Ed.), IAHS publication, Oxfordshire, pp. 392-404, 2013.
-  K. Vincent, “Creating an index of social vulnerability to climate change for Africa,” Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, 2004,
http://www.nrel.colostate.edu/ftp/conant/SLMknowledge_base/Vincent_2004.pdf [accessed October 24, 2013]
-  F. A. Kahn and A. Salman, “A simple human vulnerability index to climate change hazards for Pakistan,” Int. J. of Disaster Risk Sci., 2013, doi: 10.1007/s13753-012-0017-z
-  T.MacDonald, “Vulnerability and impacts on human development,” In: V. R. Burkett, M. A. Davidson (Eds.), “Coastal Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerabilities: A Technical Input to the 2013 National Climate Assessment” (1st Ed.), Island Press, Washington D.C., pp 67-100, 2013.
-  Q. Dinh, S. Balica, I. Popescu, and A. Jonoski, “Climate change impact on flood hazard, vulnerability and risk of the Long Xuyen Quadrangle in the Mekong Delta,” J. of River Basin Manag., 2012, doi: 10.1080/15715124.2012.663383
-  UNISDR United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction, “Hyogo Framework for Action 2005-2015: building the resilience of nations and communities to disasters,” 2007,
http://www.unisdr.org/files/1037_hyogoframeworkforactionenglish.pdf [accessed October 24, 2013]
-  S. L. Cutter, C. G. Burton, and C. T. Emrich, “Disaster resilience indicators for benchmarking baseline conditions,” J. of Homel. Secur. and Emerg. Manag., 2010, doi: 10.2202/1547-7355.1732
-  A. Dwyer, C. Zoppou, O. Nielsen, S. Day, and S. Roberts, “Quantifying social vulnerability: a methodology for identifying those at risk to natural hazards,” Australian government, Geoscience Australia, 2004,
http://www.earthbyte.org/people/patrice/Teaching/Geos-2111GIS/Ref/GA4267-IdentifyingRisks.pdf [accessed October 24, 2013]
-  D. A. McEntire, C. Fuller, C. W. Johnston, and R. Weber, “A comparison of disaster paradigms: the search for a holistic policy guide,” Public Adm. Rev., 2002, doi: 10.1111/1540-6210.00178
-  L. Rygel, D. O’Sullivan, and B. Yarnal, “A method for constructing a social vulnerability index: an application to hurricane storm surges in a developed country,” Mitig. and Adapt. Strateg. For Glob.Chang., 2006, doi: 10.1007/s11027-0265-6
-  N. Brooks, “Vulnerability, risk and adaptation: a conceptual framework,” Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, 2003,
http://www.tyndall.ac.uk/sites/default/files/wp38.pdf [accessed October 24, 2013]
-  Centraal Bureau voor de Statistiek, “Prognosis population; sex, age, ethnicity and generation, 2013-2060,” Central Bureau voor de Statistiek, 2012,
http://statline.cbs.nl/StatWeb/publication/?VW=T&DM=&PA=81584NED&D1=0&D2=0&D3=0-100&D4=0&D5=0-2,7,17,27,37,l&HD=121206-1503&HDR=T,G4&STB=G1,G2,G3 [accessed January 16, 2013]
-  United States Census Bureau, “Age and Sex Structure of the Population for the United States: 2010, 2030, and 2050,” United States Census Bureau, 2009,
http://www.census.gov/population/projections/files/analytical-document09.pdf [accessed January 16, 2013]
-  Statistics Bureau, “Japan Statistical Yearbook, Chapter II: Population by sex and age,” Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, 2010,
http://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/kokusei/2010/poj/pdf/2010ch02.pdf, [accessed January 16, 2013]
-  TNS Nipo, “Risicoperceptie bij overstromingen in relatie tot evacuatiebereidheid,” TNS Nipo Amsterdam, 2006,
https://www.infopuntveiligheid.nl/Infopuntdocumenten/175535_668_12535429 31732-Definitief_rapport_risicoperceptie_overstromingen.pdf [accessed October 24, 2013]
-  Programma Nationale Veiligheid, “Capaciteitenanalyse voor de taak grootschalige evacuatie,” Koninklijke Broese en Peereboom, 2008, http://www.rijksoverheid.nl/documenten-en-publicaties /rapporten/2008/05/30/capaciteitenanalyse-voor-de-taak-grootschalige-evacuatie.html [accessed October 24, 2013]
-  FEMA, “National Incident Management System,” FEMA Publications, 2008,
http://www.fema.gov/pdf/emergency/nims/NIMS_core.pdf [accessed October 24, 2013]
-  D. Lumbroso, K. Stone, and F. Vinet, “An assessment of flood emergency plans in England and Wales, France and the Netherlands,” Nat. Hazards., 2011.
-  Overheid.nl, “Wet- en regelgeving,” Overheid.nl, 2013,
http:// wetten.overheid.nl/zoeken/ [accessed October 24, 2013]
-  USA. gov, “Laws and regulations,” U.S. government, 2014,
http://www.usa.gov/Topics/Reference-Shelf/Laws.shtml [accessed January 16, 2014]
-  Japanese law translation database system, “Japanese law translation,” Ministry of Justice, 2014,
http://www.japaneselawtranslation.go.jp/?re=02 [accessed January 16, 2014]
-  M. J. Van Duin, M. J. Bezuyen, and U. Rosenthal, “Evacuaties bij hoog water: zelfredzaamheid en overheidszorg,” Crisis Onderzoek Team Rijksuniversiteit Leiden, Leiden, 1995.
-  A. Don and F. De Jong, “Water, geen nood! Quickscan zelfredzaamheid van verminderd zelfredzamen,” Primo NH, 2008,
http://www.wikivarium.nl /images/2/23/Quickscan_WATER_GEEN_NOOD.pdf [accessed July 17, 2013]
-  G. Sleijpen, “Home Internet access rate highest in the Netherlands,” Eurostat, Centraal Bureau voor de Statistiek, 2012,
http://www.cbs.nl/en-GB/menu/themas/vrije-tijd-cultuur/publicaties/artikelen/archief/2012/2012-3636-wm.htm [accessed January 16, 2013]
-  ANP, “Website omroep Gelderland weer bereikbaar na explosie. Volkskrant,” 2012,
http://www.volkskrant.nl/vk/nl/2664/Nieuws/article/detail/3344414/2012/11/08/ Website-Omroep-Gelderlandweer-bereikbaar-na-explosie.dhtml [accessed October 24, 2013]
-  A. J. Zautra, A. Arewasikporn, and M. C. Davis, “Resilience: promoting well-being through recovery, sustainability, and growth,” Res. in Hum. Dev., Vol.14, No.3, pp. 221-238, 2010.
This article is published under a Creative Commons Attribution-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.