single-dr.php

JDR Vol.9 No.3 pp. 358-364
(2014)
doi: 10.20965/jdr.2014.p0358

Paper:

Real-Time Tsunami Inundation Forecast for a Recurrence of 17th Century Great Hokkaido Earthquake in Japan

Yuichiro Tanioka, Aditya Riadi Gusman, Kei Ioki,
and Yugo Nakamura

Institute of Seismology and Volcanology, Hokkaido University, Kita 10 Nishi 8, Kita-ku, Sapporo, Hokkaido 060-0810, Japan

Received:
February 10, 2014
Accepted:
March 4, 2014
Published:
June 1, 2014
Keywords:
early tsunami warning, tsunami inundation forecast, pre-computed tsunami database
Abstract

Paleotsunami studies have shown that several large tsunamis hit the Pacific coast. Many tsunami deposit data were available for the 17th century tsunami. The most recent tsunami deposit study in 2013 indicated that the large slip of about 25 m along the plate interface near the Kurile trench would be necessary and the seismic moment of this 17th century earthquake was 1.7 × 1022 Nm. If a great earthquake like the 17th century earthquake occurs off the Pacific coast of Hokkaido, the devastating disaster along the coast is expected. To minimize the tsunami disaster, a development of the real-time forecast of a tsunami inundation area is necessary. Estimating a tsunami inundation area requires tsunami numerical simulation with a very fine grid system of less than 1 arcsecond. There is not enough time to compute the tsunami inundation area after a large earthquake occurs. In this study, we develop a real-time tsunami inundation forecast method using a database including many tsunami inundation areas previously computed using various fault models. After great earthquakes, tsunamis are computed using linear long-wave equations for fault models estimated in real time. Simulating such tsunamis takes only 1-3 minutes on a typical PC, so it is potentially useful for forecasting tsunamis. Tsunami inundation areas computed numerically using various fault models and tsunami waveforms at several locations near the inundation area are stored in a database. Those computed tsunami waveforms are used to choose the most appropriate tsunami inundation area by comparing them to the tsunami waveforms computed in real time. This method is tested at Kushiro, a city in Hokkaido. We found that the method worked well enough to forecast the Kushiro’s tsunami inundation area.

Cite this article as:
Yuichiro Tanioka, Aditya Riadi Gusman, Kei Ioki, and
and Yugo Nakamura, “Real-Time Tsunami Inundation Forecast for a Recurrence of 17th Century Great Hokkaido Earthquake in Japan,” J. Disaster Res., Vol.9, No.3, pp. 358-364, 2014.
Data files:
References
  1. [1] T. Hatori, “Source area of the east Hokkaido tsunami generated in April, 1843,” Bull. Earthq. Res. Inst. Univ. Tokyo, Vol.59, pp. 423-431, 1984 (in Japanese with English abstract).
  2. [2] K. Hirata, E. Geist, K. Satake, Y. Tanioka, and S. Yamaki, “Slip distribution of the 1952 Tokachi-Oki earthquake (M8.1) along the Kurile Trench deduced from tsunami waveform inversion,” JGR, Vol.108, pp. 2196, doi:10.1029/2002JB001976, 2003.
  3. [3] Y. Tanioka, K. Hirata, R. Hino, and T. Kanazawa, “Slip distribution of the 2003 Tokachi-oki earthquake estimated from tsunami waveform inversion,” Earth Planets Space, Vol.56, pp. 373-376, 2004.
  4. [4] Y. Tanioka, K. Satake, and K. Hirata, “Recurrence of Recent Large Earthquakes Along the Southernmost Kurile-Kamchatka Subduction Zone,” Geophysical monograph, Vol.172, pp. 145-152, 2007.
  5. [5] K. Satake, S. Nanayama, S. Yamaki, Y. Tanioka, and K. Hirata, “Variability along tsunami source in the 17th-21st centuries along the southern Kurile trench,” Tsunamis : Case Studies and Recent Developments, pp. 157-170, 2005.
  6. [6] Y. Sawai, “Evidence for 17th-century tsunamis generated on the Kurile – Kamchatka subduction zone, Lake Tokotan, Hokkaido, Japan,” Journal of Asian Earth Science, Vol.20, pp. 903-911, 2002.
  7. [7] F. Nanayama, K. Satake, R. Furukawa, K. Shimokawa, B. F. Atwater, K. Shigeno, and S. Yamaki, “Unusually large earthquakes inferred from tsunami deposits along the Kurile trench,” Nature, Vol.424, pp. 660-663, 2003.
  8. [8] F. Nanayama, R. Furukawa, K. Shigeno, A. Makino, Y. Soeda, and Y. Igarashi, “Nine unusually large tsunami deposits from the past 4000 years at Kiritappu marsh along the southern Kurile Trench,” Sedimentary Geology, Vol.200, pp. 275-294, 2007.
  9. [9] K. Satake, F. Nanayama, and S. Yamaki, “Fault models of unusual tsunami in the 17th century along the Kurile trench,” Earth Planets Space, Vol.60, pp. 925-935, 2008.
  10. [10] K. Hirakawa, Y. Nakamura, and Y. Nishimura, “Mega-Tsunamis since last 6500 years along the Pacific Coast of Hokkaido,” Chikyu Monthly, Special Issue No.49, pp. 173-180, 2005 (in Japanese).
  11. [11] Y. Nakamura, Y. Nishimura, and A. L. Moore, “Correlation of tsunami deposits based on temporal change in coastal environment, eastern Hokkaido,” Japan Geoscience Union Meeting 2011, HCG36-07, 2011.
  12. [12] Y. Nakamura, Y. Nishimura, P. P. Sulastya, and A. L. Moore, “Correlation of paleo-tsunami layers based on grain size and sediment composition, eastern Hokkaido,” Japan Geoscience Union Meeting 2012, MIS25-P17, 2012.
  13. [13] K. Ioki, “Source process of great earthquakes along the Kurile trench estimated from tsunami waveforms and tsunami deposit data, Doctoral thesis,” Graduate School of Science, Hokkaido University, 2013.
  14. [14] S. Ide, A. Baltay, and G. C. Beroza, “Shallow dynamic overshoot and energetic deep rupture in the 2011 Mw9.0 Tohoku-Oki earthquake,” Science, Vol.332, No.6036, pp. 1426-1429, doi:10.1126/science.1207020, 2011.
  15. [15] Y. Yoshida, H. Ueno, D. Muto, and S. Aoki, “Source process of the 2011 Off the Pacific Coast of Tohoku earthquake with the combination of teleseismic and strong motion data,” Earth Planets Space, Vol.63, No.7, pp. 565-569, 2011.
  16. [16] Y. Fujii, K. Satake, S. Sakai, M. Shinohara, and T. Kanazawa, “Tsunami source of the 2011 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku, Japan earthquake,” Earth Planets and Space, Vol.63, No.7, pp. 815-820, 2011.
  17. [17] A. R. Gusman, Y. Tanioka, S. Sakai, and H. Tsushima, “Source model of the great 2011 Tohoku earthquake estimated from tsunami waveforms and crustal deformation data,” Earth Planet. Sci. Lett., 341-344, 234-242, doi: 10.1016/j.epsl.2012.06.006, 2012.
  18. [18] H. Tatehata, “The new tsunami warning system of the Japan Meteorological Agency,” Advances in natural and technological hazards research, Vol.9, Perspective of tsunami hazard reduction, edited by G. Hebenstreit, pp. 175-188, Kluwer Acad. Pub., The Netherlands, 1997.
  19. [19] A. R. Gusman, Y. Tanioka, B. T. MacInnes, and H. Tsushima, “A Methodology for Near-field Tsunami Inundation Forecasting: Application to the 2011 Tohoku Tsunami,” JGR, 2014 (submitted).
  20. [20] G. P. Hayes, D. J. Wald, and R. L. Johnson, “Slab1.0: A threedimensional model of global subduction zone geometries,” J. Geophys. Res., Vol.117, B01302, doi:10.1029/2011JB008524, 2012.
  21. [21] T. C. Hanks, and W. H. Bakun, “A bilinear source-scaling model for M-log A observations of continental earthquakes,” Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., Vol.92, No.5, pp. 1841-1846, 2002.
  22. [22] A. R. Gusman and Y. Tanioka, “W phase inversion and tsunami inundation modeling for tsunami early warning: Case study for the 2011 Tohoku event,” Pure Appl. Geophys., doi:10.1007/s00024-013-0680-z, 2013.
  23. [23] J. M. Johnson, “Heterogeneous coupling along Alaska-Aleutians as inferred from tsunami, seismic, and geodetic inversions,” Adv. Geophys. Vol.39, pp. 1-116, 1998.
  24. [24] F. Imamura, “Review of tsunami simulation with a finite difference method, in Long-wave run-up models, edited by H. Yeh, P. Liu, and C. Synolakis,” pp. 231-241, World Scientific, Singapore, 1996.
  25. [25] C. Goto, Y. Ogawa, N. Shuto, and F. Imamura, “Numerical method of tsunami simulation with the leap-frog scheme, IUGG/IOC TIME project,” IOC manual and guides, UNESCO, Vol.35, pp. 1-126, 1997.
  26. [26] F. Imamura, “Tsunami modeling: Calculating inundation and hazard maps, in The Sea, Vol.15, Tsunamis, chap. 10, edited by E. N. Bernard and A. R. Robinson,” pp. 321-332, Harvard Univ. Press, Cambridge, Mass, 2009.
  27. [27] Y. Ohta, T. Kobayashi, H. Tsushima, S. Miura, R. Hino, T. Takasu, H. Fujimoto, T. Iinuma, K. Tachibana, T. Demachi, T. Sato, M. Ohzono, and N. Umino, “Quasi real-time fault model estimation for near-field tsunami forecasting based on RTK-GPS analysis: Application to the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake (Mw9.0), J. Geophys. Res., Vol.117, B02311, doi:10.1029/2011JB008750, 2012.
  28. [28] H. Tsushima, R. Hino, H. Fujimoto, Y. Tanioka, and F. Imamura, “Near-field tsunami forecasting from cabled ocean bottom pressure data,” J. Geophys. Res., Vol.114, B06309, doi:10.1029/2008JB005988, 2009.
  29. [29] H. Tsushima, K. Hirata, Y. Hayashi, Y. Tanioka, K. Kimura, S. Sakai, M. Shinohara, T. Kanazawa, R. Hino, and K. Maeda, “Nearfield tsunami forecasting using offshore tsunami data from the 2011 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku earthquake,” Earth Planets Space, Vol.63, No.7, pp. 821-826, doi:10.5047/eps.2011.06.052, 2011.

*This site is desgined based on HTML5 and CSS3 for modern browsers, e.g. Chrome, Firefox, Safari, Edge, Opera.

Last updated on Jul. 20, 2021