JDR Vol.8 No.2 pp. 285-295
doi: 10.20965/jdr.2013.p0285


An Integrated Simulation of Tsunami Hazard and Human Evacuation in La Punta, Peru

Erick Mas, Bruno Adriano, and Shunichi Koshimura

Laboratory of Remote Sensing and Geoinformatics for Disaster Management, International Research Institute of Disaster Science, Tohoku University, Aoba 6-6-3, Sendai 980-8579, Japan

November 2, 2012
December 27, 2012
March 1, 2013
tsunami simulation, evacuation simulation, tsunami hazard, human casualty

The 2011 Great East Japan earthquake and tsunami was a magnitude 9.0 Mw event that destroyed most structural tsunami countermeasures. However, approximately 90% of the estimated population at risk from the tsunami survived due to a rapid evacuation to higher ground or inland. Thus, tsunami evacuation is the most effective measure to reduce casualties. In this paper, we applied a new developed evacuation model integrated with the numerical simulation of tsunami for casualty estimation. This tool is to support decisions in disaster management and disaster prevention education. The model was developed in NetLogo, a multi-agent programming language and modeling environment for simulating complex phenomena. Geographic Information Systems (GIS) datasets are used as spatial input information for road and shelter locations. The TUNAMI model of Tohoku University is used for the integration of tsunami numerical simulation results. In this paper, the study is performed in a tsunami threatened urban area of Callao, Peru, called La Punta. Results show the various contributions of the model to disaster management and scenario analysis. Among the contributions are the casualty estimation in a tsunami risk area and the analysis of the spatial distribution of vertical evacuation shelters.

Cite this article as:
E. Mas, B. Adriano, and S. Koshimura, “An Integrated Simulation of Tsunami Hazard and Human Evacuation in La Punta, Peru,” J. Disaster Res., Vol.8, No.2, pp. 285-295, 2013.
Data files:
  1. [1] V. I. Clerveaux, T. Katada, and K. Hosoi, “Tsunami Scenario Simulator: A Tool for ensuring effective disaster management and coastal evacuation in a multilanguage society,” Science of Tsunami Hazards, Vol.27, No.3, pp. 48-71, 2008.
  2. [2] T. Hayakawa and F. Imamura, “Model of the determination of tsunami evacuation and its application,” Journal of Japan Society for Natural Disaster Science, Vol.21, No.1, pp. 51-66, 2002.
  3. [3] J. Meister, Simulation of crowd dynamics with special focus on building evacuations. Master thesis, University of Applied Sciences, 2007.
  4. [4] R. Friedman, “An International Survey of Computer Models for Fire and Smoke,” Journal of Fire Protection Engineering, Vol.4, No.3, pp. 81-92, 1992.
  5. [5] S. Gwynne, E. Galea, M. Owen, P. Lawrence, and L. Filippidis, “A Review of the Methodologies Used in Evacuation Modelling,” Fire and Materials, Vol.23, pp. 383-388, 1999.
  6. [6] G. Santos and B. E. Aguirre, “A Critical Review of Emergency Evacuation Simulation Models,” 2004.
  7. [7] E. D. Kuligowski and R. D. Peacock, “A Review of Building Evacuation Models,” tech. rep., 2005.
  8. [8] X. Zheng, T. Zhong, and M. Liu, “Modeling crowd evacuation of a building based on seven methodological approaches,” Building and Environment, Vol.44, pp. 437-445, Mar. 2009.
  9. [9] J. Park, “Development of evacuation model for human safety in maritime casualty,” Ocean Engineering, Vol.31, pp. 1537-1547, Aug. 2004.
  10. [10] M. Amos and A.Wood, “Effect of door delay on aircraft evacuation time,” 2004.
  11. [11] M. K. Lindell and C. S. Prater, “Critical Behavioral Assumptions in Evacuation Time Estimate Analysis for Private Vehicles : Examples from Hurricane Research and Planning,” Journal of Urban Planning and Development, Vol.133, No.1, pp. 18-29, 2007.
  12. [12] T. J. Cova and R. L. Church, “Modelling community evacuation vulnerability using GIS,” International Journal of Geographical Information Science, Vol.11, No.8, pp. 763-784, 1997.
  13. [13] R. J. Dawson, R. Peppe, and M. Wang, “An agent-based model for risk-based flood incident management,” Natural Hazards, Vol.59, pp. 167-189, Feb. 2011.
  14. [14] M. Naser and S. C. Birst, “Mesoscopic Evacuation Modeling for Small- to Medium-Sized Metropolitan Areas,” Tech. Rep. August, North Dakota University, 2010.
  15. [15] J. Post, S. Wegscheider, M. Mück, K. Zosseder, R. Kiefl, T. Steinmetz, and G. Strunz, “Assessment of human immediate response capability related to tsunami threats in Indonesia at a subnational scale,” Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, Vol.9, pp. 1075-1086, July 2009.
  16. [16] Y. Goto, M. Affan, Agussabti, Y. Nurdin, D. K. Yuliana, and Ardiansyah, “Tsunami Evacuation Simulation for Disaster Education and City Planning,” Journal of Disaster Research, Vol.7, No.1, pp. 92-101, 2012.
  17. [17] G. Lämmel, “Escaping the Tsunami : Evacuation Strategies for Large Urban Areas. Concepts and Implementation of aMulti-Agent Based Approach,” Phd thesis, Technical University of Berlin, 2011.
  18. [18] K. Watanabe and A. Kondo, “Development of Tsunami Evacuation Simulation Model to Support Community Planning for Tsunami Disaster Mitigation,” Journal of Architecture Planning, Vol.74, No.637, pp. 627-634, 2009.
  19. [19] M. Fujioka, K. Ishibashi, H. Kaji, and I. Tsukagoshi, “Multi agent Simulation Model for Evaluating Evacuation Management System Against Tsunami Disaster,” Journal of Architecture, Planning and Environmental Engineering, Vol.562, pp. 231-236, 2002.
  20. [20] F. Southworth, “Regional Evacuation Modeling: A State-of-the-Art Review,” 1991.
  21. [21] M. Kietpawpan, “Simulation Approach to Evaluating the Effectiveness of a Tsunami Evacuation Plan for Patong Municipality, Phuket, Thailand,” Phd thesis, Prince of Songkla University, 2008.
  22. [22] P. J. Sanchez, “As Simple as possible, but no simpler: A gentle introduction to simulation modeling,” in Proceedings of the 2006 Winter Simulation Conference (L. F. Perrone, F. P. Wieland, J. Liu, B. G. Lawson, D. M. Nicol, and R. M. Fujimoto (Eds.)), pp. 2-10, 2006.
  23. [23] C. M. Macal and M. J. North, “Agent-Based Modeling and simulation: Desktop ABMS,” in Proceedings of the 2007 Winter Simulation Conference, pp. 95-106, 2007.
  24. [24] T. Charknol and Y. Tanaboriboon, “Tsunami Evacuation Behavior Analysis,” IATSS Research, Vol.30, No.2, pp. 83-96, 2006.
  25. [25] E. L. Quarantelli, B. Baisden, and T. Bourdess, “Evacuation Behavior and Problems: Findings and Implications from theResearch Literature,” tech. rep., The Ohio State University, Disaster Research Center, Ohio, USA, 1980.
  26. [26] F. Imamura, “Dissemination of Information and Evacuation Procedures in the 2004-2007 Tsunamis, Including the 2004 Indian Ocean,” Journal of Earthquake and Tsunami, Vol.3, No.2, pp. 59-65, 2009.
  27. [27] R. Lachman, M. Tatsuoka, and W. J. Bonk, “Human behavior during the tsunami of May 1960.,” Science, Vol.133, pp. 1405-1409, May 1961.
  28. [28] S. Tanaka, R. Tabuchi, R. Kimura, and G. Wu, “Tsunami Evacuation Behavior Reconsidered,” Journal of Japan Society for Natural Disaster Science, Vol.25, No.2, pp. 183-195, 2006.
  29. [29] T. Katada, M. Kodama, N. Kuwasawa, and S. Koshimura, “Issues of resident’s consciousness and evacuation from the tsunami – From questionnaire survey in Kesennuma city, Miyagi Pref. After the Earthquake of Miyagiken-oki, 2003 –,” Proceedings of the Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Vol.789, No.2, pp. 93-104, 2005.
  30. [30] T. Saito, “Questionnaire Survey of Human Behaviors and Consciousness on the Tsunami of the 1989 Sanriku-Oki Earthquake,” Journal of Japan Society for Natural Disaster Science, Vol.9, No.2, pp. 49-63, 1990.
  31. [31] R. M. Gagne, “Principles of Instructional Design,” Vol.44. Wadsworth Publishing Co Inc, Feb. 2005.
  32. [32] X. Pan, C. S. Han, K. Dauber, and K. H. Law, “A multi-agent based framework for the simulation of human and social behaviors during emergency evacuations,” Ai & Society, Vol.22, pp. 113-132, June 2007.
  33. [33] D. K. Bird, “The use of questionnaires for acquiring information on public perception of natural hazards and risk mitigation a review of current knowledge and practice,” Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, Vol.9, pp. 1307-1325, 2009.
  34. [34] E. Gierlach, B. E. Belsher, and L. E. Beutler, “Cross-cultural differences in risk perceptions of disasters.,” Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis, Vol.30, pp. 1539-1549, Oct. 2010.
  35. [35] E. Mas, F. Imamura, and S. Koshimura, “Tsunami Risk Perception Framework for the Start Time Evacuation Modeling,” in XXV IUGG General Assembly International Association of Seismology and Physics of Earths Interior, (Melbourne, Australia), 2011.
  36. [36] U. Wilensky, “Netlogo,” 1999.
  37. [37] B. Anguelov, “Video Game Pathfinding and Improvements to Discrete Search on Grid-based Maps,” Master thesis, University of Pretoria, 2011.
  38. [38] T. Suzuki and F. Imamura, “Simulation model of the evacuation from a tsunami in consideration of the resident consciousness and behavior,” Journal of Japan Society for Natural Disaster Science, Vol.23, No.4, pp. 521-538, 2005.
  39. [39] Instituto Nacional de Estadistica e Informatica (INEI), “Censos Nacionales 2007,” tech. rep., 2007.
  40. [40] L. Dorbath, A. Cisternas, and C. Dorbath, “Assessment of the size of large and great historical earthquakes in peru,” Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, Vol.80, No.3, pp. 551-576, 1990.
  41. [41] J. Kuroiwa Horiuchi, “Disaster Reduction. Living in harmony with nature,” Editorial NSG, first edited, 2004.
  42. [42] A. F. Espinosa, R. Husid, S. T. Algermissen, and J. De Las Casas, “The Lima earthquake of October 3, 1974: intensity distribution,” Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, Vol.67, No.5, pp. 1429-1439, 1977.
  43. [43] C. Langer and S. William, “The 1974 Peru Earthquake Series,” Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, Vol.85, No.3, pp. 665-687, 1995.
  44. [44] N. Pulido, Y. Yagi, H. Kumagai, and N. Nishimura, “Rupture process and coseismic deformations of the 27 February 2010 Maule earthquake, Chile,” Earth, Planets and Space, Vol.63, pp. 955-959, Dec. 2011.
  45. [45] F. Imamura, “Review of tsunami simulation with a finite difference method,” in Long-Wave Runup Models, pp. 25-42, 1995.
  46. [46] E. Mas, A. Suppasri, F. Imamura, and S. Koshimura, “Agent-based Simulation of the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake / Tsunami Evacuation : An Integrated Model of Tsunami Inundation and Evacuation,” Journal of Natural Disaster Science, Vol.34, No.1, pp. 41-57, 2012.
  47. [47] U. Wilensky, “Modeling Nature’s Emergent Patterns with Multiagent Languages,” in EuroLogo, (Linz, Austria), pp. 1-9, 2001.
  48. [48] E. Mas, F. Imamura, and S. Koshimura, “Tsunami Departure Curves for Evacuation Simulation. A new approach to model the human behavior in tsunami evacuation.,” pp. 1-23, 2012 (under review).

*This site is desgined based on HTML5 and CSS3 for modern browsers, e.g. Chrome, Firefox, Safari, Edge, IE9,10,11, Opera.

Last updated on Dec. 18, 2018