Tsunami Inundation Mapping in Lima, for Two Tsunami Source Scenarios
Bruno Adriano*1, Erick Mas*1, Shunichi Koshimura*1,
Yushiro Fujii*2, Sheila Yauri*3, Cesar Jimenez*4,*5,
and Hideaki Yanagisawa*6
*1Laboratory of Remote Sensing and Geoinformatics for Disaster Management, International Research Institute of Disaster Science, Tohoku University, Aoba 6-6-03, Sendai 980-8579, Japan
*2International Institute of Seismology and Earthquake Engineering, Building Research Institute, 1 Tachihara, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-0802, Japan
*3Geophysical Institute of Peru (IGP), Calle Badajoz 169, Mayorazgo IV Etapa, Ate Vitarte, Peru
*4Fenlab, Universidad Nacional Mayor de San Marcos (UNMSM), Av. Venezuela s/n, Lima, Peru
*5Dirección de Hidrografía y Navegación (DHN), Calle Roca 116, Chucuito-Callao, Peru
*6Department of Regional Management, Faculty of Liberal Arts, Tohoku Gakuin University, 2-1-1 Tenjinzawa, Izumi-ku, Sendai, Miyagi 981-3193, Japan
Within the framework of the project Enhancement of Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation Technology in Peru (JST-JICA SATREPS), this study determines tsunami inundation mapping for the coastal area of Lima city, based on numerical modeling and two different tsunami seismic scenarios. Additionally, remote sensing data and geographic information system (GIS) analysis are incorporated in order to improve the accuracy of numerical modeling results. Moreover, tsunami impact is evaluated through application of a tsunami casualty index (TCI) using tsunami modeling results. Numerical results, in terms of maximum tsunami depth, show a maximum inundation height of 6 m and 15.8 m for a potential scenario (first source model) and for a past scenario (second source model), respectively. In terms of inundation area, the maximum extension is 1.3 km with a runup height of 5.3 m for the first scenario. The maximum extension is 2.1 km with a runup height of 11.4 m for the second scenario. The average TCI value obtained for the first scenario is 0.36 for the whole inundation domain. The second scenario gives a mean value of 0.64, where TCI equal to 1.00 represents the highest condition of risk. The results presented in this paper provide important information about understanding tsunami inundation features and, consequently, may be useful in designing an adequate tsunami evacuation plan for Lima city.
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