Tsunami Disaster Mitigation by Integrating Comprehensive Countermeasures in Padang City, Indonesia
Fumihiko Imamura*1, Abdul Muhari*1, Erick Mas*1,
Mulyo Harris Pradono*2, Joachim Post*3,
and Megumi Sugimoto*4
*1Disaster Control Research Center, Tohoku University, Aoba 06-6-11-1106, Sendai 980-8579, Japan
*2The Agency for the Assessment and Application of Technology, Jl. MH, Thamrin 8, Jakarta 10340, Indonesia
*3German Remote Sensing Data Center (DFD), German Aerospace Center (DLR), 82234 Wessling, Germany
*4Earthquake Research Institute, The University of Tokyo, 1-1-1 Yayoi, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo 113-0032, Japan
This paper describes the results of a comprehensive analysis for tsunami disaster mitigation in Padang City, Indonesia. Assessment consists of several steps, starting from the construction of tsunami hazard maps based on the most probable earthquake scenario in the future. Results are then analyzed to determine the impact on residential population along potential evacuation routes. Next, from the standpoint of hazards, we move to the analysis of human’s vulnerability during evacuation. The term “vulnerability” is associated with available evacuation time. Here, we conducted a static evacuation model using the GIS platform and a dynamic approach using multiagent paradigm. Results of evacuationmodeling suggest that some residents may not have enough time to leave the tsunami inundation area before the first wave comes. We therefore propose using relatively high buildings as vertical evacuation sites. One of potential candidates that survived from a devastated earthquake with 7.6 Mw in 2009 is selected to be further analyzed its antiseismic deficiencies based on design ground motion obtained from micro-tremor analysis and synthesized recorded wave in Padang. As a result, even though the building underwent some damage, the frame structure was able to withstand the shaking and keep the building from collapsing.
-  K. Sieh, D. H. Natawidjaja, A. J. Meltzner, C. C. Shen, H. Cheng, K. S. Li, B. W. Suwargadi, J. Galetzka, B. Phillibosian, and R. L. Edwards, “Earthquake Supercycle Inferred from Sea-Level Change Recorded in the Coral of West Sumatra,” Science 322, pp. 1674-1677, 2008.
-  D. H. Natawidjaja, K. Sieh, W. Kongko, A. Muhari, G. Prasetya, I. Meilano, H. Latief, and M. Chlieh, “Scenario for future megathrust tsunami event in the Sumatran subduction zone,” Asia and Oceania Geosciences Society (AOGS) 6th Annual meeting, Singapore, 2009.
-  A.Muhari, F. Imamura, D. H. Natawidjaja, J. Post, H. Latief, and F. A. Ismail, “Tsunami mitigation efforts with pTA in West Sumatra Province, Indonesia,” Journal of Earthquake and Tsunami, Vol.4, No.4, pp. 341-368, 2010.
-  H. Spahn, M. Hoppe, H. D. Vidiarina, and B. Usdianto, “Experience from three years development for tsunami early warning in Indonesia: challenges, lessons and the way ahead,” Natural Hazard andEarth System Science (10), pp. 1411-1429, 2010.
-  H. Taubenbock, G. Goseberg, N. Setiadi, G. Lammel, F. Moder, M. Oczipka, H. Klupfel, R. Wahl, T. Schlurmann, G. Strunz, J. Birkmann, K. Nagel, F. Siegert, F. Lehman, S. Dech, K. Gress, and R. Klein, “Last-mile preparation for a potential disaster – Interdisciplinary approach toward tsunami early warning and an evacuation information system for the coastal city of Padang, Indonesia,” Nat. Hazard and Earth Sys. Sci. 9, pp. 1509-1528, 2009.
-  G. Gayer, S. Lechska, I. Nohren, O. Larsen, H. Gunther, “Tsunami inundation modeling based on detail roughness maps on densely populated area,” Nat. Hazard and Earth Sys. Sci. 10, pp. 1679-1687, 2010.
-  F. Imamura, “Dissemination of information and evacuation procedures in the 2004-2007 tsunamis, including the 2004 Indian Ocean,” Journal of Earthquake and Tsunami, Vol.3, No.2, pp. 59-65, 2009.
-  Komunitas Siaga Tsunami – Tsunami Alert Community (KOGAMI), 2011,
http://www.kogami.or.id/, last access August, 2011.
-  Padang City Government and Mercy Corps, Peta Evakuasi Tsunami Kota Padang, 2010,
http://www.gitews.org/tsunamikit/en/id tsunami evacuation map padang.html, last accessed Dec. 2011.
-  The Headquarters for Earthquake research Promotion News, the September 2009 Padang, West Sumatra earthquake: International collaborative research on Earthquake in Indonesia, Vol.3, No.4, pp. 4-5, 2010.
-  D. H. Natawidjaja, K. Sieh, M. Chlieh, J. Galetzka, B. W. Suwargadi, H. Cheng, R. L. Edwards, J. P. Avouac, and S. N. Ward, “Source parameters of the great Sumatran megathrust earthquakes of 1797 and 1833 inferred from coral microatolls,” Journal of Geophys Res. Solid Earth, doi: 10.1029/2005 JB004025, 2006.
-  M. Chlieh, J. P. Avoac, K. Sieh, D. H. Natawidjaja, and J. Galetzka, “Heterogeneous coupling of the Sumatran megathrust constrain by geodetic and paleogeodetic measurement,” J. Geophyisical Research DOI 10, 1029/2007JB004981, 2008.
-  Y. Okada, “Surface deformation due to shear and tensile faults in a half-space, Bulletin of Seismological Society of America, Vol.75, No.4, pp. 1135-1154, 1985.
-  Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), Guideline for design for structures for vertical evacuation from tsunamis, FEMA 646, pp. 36-37, 2008.
-  S. Takahashi, K. Endoh, and Z. Muro, “Experimental study on people’s safety against overtopping waves on breakwater, Report of Port and Harbor Research Institute., Vol.31, No.4, pp. 3-29, 1992 (In Japanese).
-  S. Koshimura, T. Katada, H. Mojfield, and Y. Kawata, “A method for estimating casualties due to tsunami inundation flow,” Nat. Hazard, Vol.39, pp. 265-274, 2006.
-  A. Muhari, F. Imamura, S. Koshimura, and J. Post, “Examination of three practical run-up model for assessing tsunami impact on highly populated area,” Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 11, pp. 3107-3123, 2011.
-  T. K. Chuan, et al., “Anthropometry of the Singaporean and Indonesian populations,” International Journal of Industrial Ergonomics, 40, pp. 757-766, doi:10.1016/j.ergon.2010.05.001, 2010.
-  BPS , Indonesian Statistical Bureau, ‘Village Potential Data’, 2006 (CD-ROM).
-  H. Taubenbock, J. Post, A. Roth, G. Strunz, R. Kiefl, S. Dech, and F. Ismail, “Multi-scale assessment of population distribution utilizing remotely sensed data, the case study Padang, West Sumatra, Indonesia,” International Conference on Tsunami Warning (ICTW) Bali, Indonesia, November 12-14, 2008.
-  M. R. Khomarudin, G. Strunz, R. Ludwig, K. Zosseder, J. Post, W. Kongko, and W. S. Pranowo, “Hazard analysis and estimation of people exposure as contribution to tsunami risk assessment in the west coast of Sumatra, the south coast of Java and Bali,” Z. Geomorphol., 54, Suppl. 3, pp. 337-356, 2010.
-  J. Post, S. Wegscheider, M. Muck, R. Kiefl, T. Steinmetz, and G. Strunz, “Assessment of human immediate response capability related to tsunami threat in Indonesia at a sub-national scale,” Natural Hazard and Earth System Science, Vol.9, pp. 1075-1086, 2009.
-  J. K. Riad, F. H. Norris, and R. B. Ruback, “Predicting evacuation in two major disaster: Risk perception, social influence, and access to resources,” Journal of Applied Phsycology, Vol.29, No.5, pp. 918-934, 1999.
-  B. G. McAdoo, L. Dengler, G. Prasetya, and V. Titov, “Smong: How an oral history saved thousands of Indonesia’s Simeulue Island during the December 2004 and March 2005 tsunamis,” Earthquake Spectra, Vol.22, No.S3, pp. 661-669, 2006.
-  E. Mas, F. Imamura, and S. Koshimura, “Tsunami Risk Perception Framework for the Start Time Evacuation Modeling,” XXV IUGG General Assembly. International Association of Seismology and Physics of the Earth’s Interior, Melbourne – Australia, 28 June-7 July, 2011.
-  U. Wilensky, Modeling Nature’s Emergent Patterns with Multiagent Languages, EuroLogo, 2001.
-  F. Southworth, Regional Evacuation Modeling: A State of the Art Reviewing. Technical report, OAK Ridge National Laboratory, 1991
-  S. Tweedie, J. Rowland, S. Walsh, R. Rhoten, and P. A. Hagle, “Methodology for estimating Emergency Evacuation Times,” The Social Science Journal, Vol.23, No.2, pp. 189-204, 1986.
-  M. Hoppe and H. S. Mahadiko, “30 minutes in Padang – lessons for tsunami early warning and preparedness from the earthquake on 30 September 2009. GTZ-GITEWS project publication,”
-  P. Hart, N. Nilsson, and B. A. Raphael, “Formal Basis for the Heuristic Determination of Minimum Cost Paths,” IEEE Transactions of Systems Science and Cybernetics, Vol.SSC-4, No.2, pp. 100-107, 1968.
-  I. Karamouas, P. Heil, P. van Beek, and M. Overmars, “A Predictive Collision Avoidance for Pedestrian Simulation,” MIG 2009, LNCS 5884, pp. 41-52, 2009.
-  D. Helbing and P. Molnar, “Social force for pedestrian dynamics,” Physical review, E51, No.5, pp. 4283-4286, 1995.
-  P. B. Schnabel, J. Lysmer, and H. B. Seed, SHAKE: a computer program for earthquake response analysis of horizontally layered sites, UCB/EERC-72/12, Earthquake Engineering Research Center, University of California, Berkeley, 1972-12, p. 92 (480/S36/1972), 1972.
-  Departemen Permukiman Dan Prasarana Wilayah (2002) Standar Perencanaan Ketahanan Gempa Untuk Struktur Bangunan Gedung, SNI – 03-1726 – 2002, Badan Penelitian Dan Pengembangan Permukiman Dan Prasarana Wilayah, Pusat Penelitian Dan Pengembangan Teknologi Permukiman, April 2002