single-dr.php

JDR Vol.7 No.1 pp. 26-36
(2012)
doi: 10.20965/jdr.2012.p0026

Paper:

Methods for Eruption Prediction and Hazard Evaluation at Indonesian Volcanoes

Masato Iguchi*1, Surono*2, Takeshi Nishimura*3,
Muhamad Hendrasto*2, Umar Rosadi*2,
Takahiro Ohkura*4, Hetty Triastuty*2,
Ahmad Basuki*2, Agoes Loeqman*2,
Sukir Maryanto*5, Kazuhiro Ishihara*1,
Mitsuhiro Yoshimoto*6, Setsuya Nakada*7,
and Natsumi Hokanishi*7

*1Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University, Sakurajima-Yokoyama, Kagoshima 891-1419, Japan

*2Center for Volcanology and Geological Hazard Mitigation Jl. Diponegoro 57, Bandung 40122, Indonesia

*3Graduate School of Science, Tohoku University, Japan

*4Graduate School of Science, Kyoto University, Japan

*5Faculty of Science, Brawijaya University, Indonesia

*6Graduate School of Science, Hokkaido University, Japan

*7Earthquake Research Institute, University of Tokyo, Japan

Received:
August 1, 2011
Accepted:
January 14, 2012
Published:
January 1, 2012
Keywords:
short-term prediction, long-term prediction, eruption scenario
Abstract

We report methods, based on geophysical observations and geological surveys, for the prediction of eruptions and the evaluation of the activity of 4 volcanoes in Indonesia. These are Semeru, Guntur, Kelud and Sinabung volcanoes. Minor increases in tilt were detected by borehole tiltmeters prior to eruptions at the Semeru volcano depending on the seismic amplitude of explosion earthquakes. The results show the possibility of prediction of the type and magnitude of eruption and the effectiveness of observation with a high signalto-noise ratio. The establishment of background data is important for evaluating volcanic activity in longterm prediction. Typical distributions of volcanic and local tectonic earthquakes were obtained around the Guntur volcano, where geodetic monitoring by continuous GPS observation is valuable. The cumulative volume of eruptive products is valuable for evaluating the potential for future eruption. The eruptive rate of the Kelud volcano is ca 2×106 m3/y (dense rock equivalent), but the volume of the 2007 eruption was only 2×107 m3, suggesting a still high potential for eruption. Based on geological surveys and dating, an eruption scenario is proposed for the activity of Mt. Sinabung, where phreatic eruptions occurred in 2010 after a historically long dormancy.

Cite this article as:
M. Iguchi, Surono, T. Nishimura, <. Hendrasto, U. Rosadi, <. Ohkura, H. Triastuty, <. Basuki, A. Loeqman, <. Maryanto, K. Ishihara, <. Yoshimoto, S. Nakada, and <. Hokanishi, “Methods for Eruption Prediction and Hazard Evaluation at Indonesian Volcanoes,” J. Disaster Res., Vol.7, No.1, pp. 26-36, 2012.
Data files:
References
  1. [1] K. Kamo and K. Ishihara, “A preliminary experiment on automated judgement of the stages of eruptive activity using tiltmeter records at Sakurajima, Japan,” In IAVCEI Proceedings in Volcanology 1, Springer-Verlag, Berlin Heidelberg, pp. 585-598, 1989.
  2. [2] M. Iguchi, H. Yakiwara, T. Tameguri, M. Hendrasto, and J. Hirabayashi, “Mechanism of explosive eruption revealed by geophysical observations at the Sakurajima, Suwanosejima and Semeru volcanoes,” Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research, Vol.178, pp. 1-9, 2008.
  3. [3] K. Umakoshi, H. Shimizu, and T.Matsuwo, “Volcano-tectonic seismicity at Unzen Volcano, Japan, 1985-1999,” Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research, Vol.112, pp. 117-131, 2001.
  4. [4] T. Eto, T. Takayama, K. Yamamoto, M. Hendrasto, D.Miki, T. Sonoda, T.Matsushima, K. Uchida, H. Yakiwara, Y.Wan, F. Kimata, R. Miyajima, and K. Kobayashi, “Re-upheaval of the ground surface at the Aira caldera,” Annuals Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University, Vol.40, pp. 49-60, 1997.
  5. [5] K. Nakamura, “Volcano-stratigraphic study of Oshima Volcano, Izu,” Bulletin of Earthquake Research Institute, University of Tokyo, Vol.42, pp. 649-728, 1964.
  6. [6] C. G. Newhall and R. P. Hoblitt, “Constructing event trees for volcanic crises,” Bulletin of Volcanology, Vol.64, pp. 3-20, 2002.
  7. [7] A. Neri et al., “Developing an Event Tree for probabilistic hazard and risk assessment at Vesuvius,” Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research, Vol.178, pp. 397-415, 2008.
  8. [8] B. Voight, J.-C. Komorowski, G. E. Norton, A. B. Belousov, M. Belousova, G. Boudon, P. W. Francis, W. Franz, P. Heinrich, R. S. J. Sparkes, and S. R. Young, “The 26 December (Boxing Day) 1997 sector collapse and debris avalanche at Soufriere Hills Volcano, Montserrat,” In T. H. Druitt and B. P. Kokelaar, (Eds.) The eruption of Soufriere Hills Volcano, Montserrat, from 1995 to 1999, Geological Society of London, Mem., No.21, pp. 363-407, 2002.
  9. [9] K. Kusumadinata, “Data dasar gunungapi Indonesia (Catalogue of References on Indonesian Volcanoes with Eruptions in Historical Time),” Direktorat Vulkanologi, 819 pp, 1979 (in Indonesian).
  10. [10] M. Iguchi and Y. Morita, “Asian international symposium on modeling of volcanic eruption for volcanic hazard assessment,” Bulletin of Volcanological Society of Japan, Vol.54, pp. 37-41, 2009 (in Japanese).
  11. [11] M. Hendrasto et al., “Evaluation of volcanic activity at Sinabung volcano, after more than 400 years of quiet,” Journal of Disaster Research, Vol.7, No.1, 2012 (in this issue).
  12. [12] H. Kuswandarto, M. Iguchi, and M. Hendrasto, “Automatic and real-time processing of tilt records for prediction of explosions at Semeru volcano, east Java, Indonesia,” Indonesian Journal of Physics, Vol.19, pp. 69-74, 2008.
  13. [13] T. Nishimura, “Ground deformation caused by magma ascent in an open conduit,” Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research, Vol.187, pp. 178-192, doi:10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2009.09.001, 2009.
  14. [14] T. Nishimura, M. Iguchi, R. Kawaguchi, Surono, M. Hendrasto, and U. Rosadi, “Inflations prior to vulcanian eruptions and gas bursts detected by tilt observations at Semeru Volcano, Indonesia,” Bulletin of Volcanology, 2012 (in press).
  15. [15] N. Sadikin, M. Iguchi, M. Hendrasto, and G. Suantika, “Seismic activity of volcano-tectonic earthquakes at Guntur volcano, West Java, Indonesia during the period from 1991 to 2005,” Indonesian Journal of Physics, Vol.18, pp. 21-28, 2007.
  16. [16] M. Alzwar, N. Akbar, and S. Bachri, “Geological map of the Garut and Pameungpeuk quadrangle, Jawa,” Geological Research and Development Center, Indonesia, 1992.
  17. [17] M. Hendrasto, O. K. Suganda, Yosep, Sugiyo, K. Yamamoto, T. Eto, and K. Ishihara “Ground deformation at Guntur volcano as revealed by precise leveling survey,” Proceedings on the symposium on Japan-Indonesia IDNDR project, Bandung 1998, pp. 95-105, 1998.
  18. [18] K. Mogi, “Reaction between the eruptions of various volcanoes and the deformations of the ground surfaces around them,” Bulletin of Earthquake Research Institute, University of Tokyo, Vol.36, pp. 99-134, 1958.
  19. [19] N. Sadikin, “Volcano-tectonic earthquakes and magma supply system at Guntur volcano, with long-term dormant period,” Ph.D Thesis Kyoto University, 105pp, 2008.
  20. [20] C. A. Chesner and W. I. Rose, “Stratigraphy of the Toba tuffs and the evolution of the Toba caldera complex, Sumatra, Indonesia,” Bulletin of Volcanology, Vol.53, pp. 343-356, 1991.
  21. [21] K. Ishihara, M. Hendrasto, and S. Hidayati, “Long-term forecasting of volcanic eruption in case of Kelud volcano, Indonesia,” Annuals Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University, No.54, pp. 209-214, 2011.

*This site is desgined based on HTML5 and CSS3 for modern browsers, e.g. Chrome, Firefox, Safari, Edge, IE9,10,11, Opera.

Last updated on Jan. 19, 2019