Response to Possible Earthquake Disasters in the Tokai, Tonankai, and Nankai Areas, and Their Restoration/Reconstruction Strategies
Norio Maki*, Hai-Li Chen**, and Shingo Suzuki*
*Disaster Prevention Research Institute (DPRI), Kyoto University, Gokasho, Uji, Kyoto 611-0011, Japan
**Graduate School of Informatics, Kyoto University, 36-1 Yoshida-Honmachi, Sakyo-ku, Kyoto 606-8501, Japan
This paper sorts out the problems to be solved for the establishment of individual disaster response and a long term recovery strategies for all the areas assumed to be hit by Tokai, Tonankai, and Nankai earthquakes. It takes into consideration (1) structural changes in the future (e.g. depopulation), (2) regional characteristics of societies (e.g. large urban, small to intermediate urban, and mountainous areas), (3) effects of the earthquakes occurring in a time-lagged manner, and (4) disaster images of individual areas hit by earthquakes occurring in a time lagged manner (e.g. disruption to social systems and effects on zero-meter areas) in order to show the research frameworks for “Tokai, Tonankai, and Nankai earthquake linkage evaluation, Sub-project 2-(4) Disaster Response and a long term recovery strategies reflecting regional and societal characteristics in the future.” As the results of sorting out those issues, following things were pointed out. 1) Present frame work for disaster management for Tokai, Tonankai, and Nankai earthquakes does not count on the issues resulting from time lagged occurrence of those earthquakes, 2) According to depopulation in Japan, exposure to those earthquakes will reduced, 3) in western part of Japan, the time lagged occurrence would be worst-case scenario, and in eastern part of Japan, the simultaneous occurrence would be the worst, 4) Tsunami inundation would make serious problems for recovery in under sea level area, where the recovery work starts from un-watering the area, 5) analytical frame work on the long term recovery strategies based on “Program Evaluation” scheme consisted from (1) Assessment of need for the program, Assessment of Program Design and Theory, Assessment of program process and implementation, Assessment of program outcome/impact, Assessment of program cost and efficiency.
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