JDR Vol.4 No.2 pp. 142-150
doi: 10.20965/jdr.2009.p0142


Response to Possible Earthquake Disasters in the Tokai, Tonankai, and Nankai Areas, and Their Restoration/Reconstruction Strategies

Norio Maki*, Hai-Li Chen**, and Shingo Suzuki*

*Disaster Prevention Research Institute (DPRI), Kyoto University, Gokasho, Uji, Kyoto 611-0011, Japan

**Graduate School of Informatics, Kyoto University, 36-1 Yoshida-Honmachi, Sakyo-ku, Kyoto 606-8501, Japan

December 10, 2008
February 18, 2009
April 1, 2009
long-term recovery, program evaluation, depopulation, time lagged occurrence, strategic plan
This paper sorts out the problems to be solved for the establishment of individual disaster response and a long term recovery strategies for all the areas assumed to be hit by Tokai, Tonankai, and Nankai earthquakes. It takes into consideration (1) structural changes in the future (e.g. depopulation), (2) regional characteristics of societies (e.g. large urban, small to intermediate urban, and mountainous areas), (3) effects of the earthquakes occurring in a time-lagged manner, and (4) disaster images of individual areas hit by earthquakes occurring in a time lagged manner (e.g. disruption to social systems and effects on zero-meter areas) in order to show the research frameworks for “Tokai, Tonankai, and Nankai earthquake linkage evaluation, Sub-project 2-(4) Disaster Response and a long term recovery strategies reflecting regional and societal characteristics in the future.” As the results of sorting out those issues, following things were pointed out. 1) Present frame work for disaster management for Tokai, Tonankai, and Nankai earthquakes does not count on the issues resulting from time lagged occurrence of those earthquakes, 2) According to depopulation in Japan, exposure to those earthquakes will reduced, 3) in western part of Japan, the time lagged occurrence would be worst-case scenario, and in eastern part of Japan, the simultaneous occurrence would be the worst, 4) Tsunami inundation would make serious problems for recovery in under sea level area, where the recovery work starts from un-watering the area, 5) analytical frame work on the long term recovery strategies based on “Program Evaluation” scheme consisted from (1) Assessment of need for the program, Assessment of Program Design and Theory, Assessment of program process and implementation, Assessment of program outcome/impact, Assessment of program cost and efficiency.
Cite this article as:
N. Maki, H. Chen, and S. Suzuki, “Response to Possible Earthquake Disasters in the Tokai, Tonankai, and Nankai Areas, and Their Restoration/Reconstruction Strategies,” J. Disaster Res., Vol.4 No.2, pp. 142-150, 2009.
Data files:
  1. [1] Central Disaster Management Council, “Risk Assessment Results of Tokai-Tonannkai Earthquake Disaster,” Central Disaster Management Council, 2003 (in Japanese).
  2. [2] Kiyomine Terumoto et. al., “Problem Structure Due to the time Lag between the Tokai, Tonankai, and Nankai Earthquake,” Journal of Social Safety Science, No.9, pp. 416-426, 2008 (in Japanese).
  3. [3] Central Disaster Management Council, Tonankai and Nankai Earthquake Disaster Reduction Strategy, 2005.
  4. [4] Central Disaster Management Council,“Policy Framework for Tonankai and Nankai Earthquakes,” 2005.
  5. [5] Central Disaster Management Council, “Guidelines for Tonankai and Nankai Earthquake Emergency Response Activities,” Central Disaster Management Council, 2006 (in Japanese).
  6. [6] Cabinet Office, “White Paper on Birthrate-Declining Society 2008,” Cabinet Office, 2008 (in Japanese).
  7. [7] Regional economy research committee, “regional management in depopulation society -regional economy simulation in 2030-,” 2005.
  8. [8] Ibid.
  9. [9] Institute of Social Safety Science, “Adovocay report for The New National Land Sustainability Plan,” ISSS, 2006 (in Japanese).
  10. [10] Science Technology Agency Resource Survey Committee, “Damage map of Isewan Tyhooon, Survey Report of Iwawan Tayhoon,” Science and Technology Agency, 1960 (in Japanese).
  11. [11] Mie Prefecture Government, Tsunami Hazard Map,
  12. [12] City of New Orleans, “Unified New Orleans Plan; City Wide Strategic Recovery and Rebuilding Plan,” City of New Orleans, 2007.
  13. [13] Director-General for Disaster Management, “Survey on isolating communities at the time of disaster,” 2005.
  14. [14] Special committee for disaster management for mountainous rural communities, “disaster management for mountainous rural communities,” 2005.
  15. [15] Rosszi, H. Peter, “Evaluation; A Systematic Approach Seventh Edition,” SAGE Publications, 2003
  16. [16] Kobe long term recovery promoting committee, “evaluation for long term recovery from the 1995 Kobe earthquake,” city of kobe, 2004 (in Japanese).

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