single-dr.php

JDR Vol.4 No.2 pp. 99-105
(2009)
doi: 10.20965/jdr.2009.p0099

Paper:

Toward Advanced Earthquake Cycle Simulation

Kazuro Hirahara

Graduate School of Science, Kyoto University, Oiwake-cho, Kitashirakawa, Sakyo-ku, Kyoto 606-8502, Japan

Received:
December 28, 2008
Accepted:
April 9, 2009
Published:
April 1, 2009
Keywords:
advanced earthquake cycle simulation, Nankai megathrust earthquakes, medium heterogeneity, advanced data analyses, inland earthquakes
Abstract

Recent earthquake cycle simulation based on laboratory derived rate and state friction laws with super-parallel computers have successfully reproduced historical earthquake cycles. Earthquake cycle simulation is thus a powerful tool for providing information on the occurrence of the next Nankai megathrust earthquake, if simulation is combined with data assimilation for historical data and recently ongoing crustal activity data observed by networks extending from the land to the ocean floor. Present earthquake cycle simulation assumes simplifications in calculation, however, that differ from actual complex situations. Executing simulation relaxing these simplifications requires huge computational demands, and is difficult with present supercomputers. Looking toward advanced simulation of Nankai megathrust earthquake cycles with next-generation petaflop supercomputers, we present 1) an evaluation of effects of the actual medium in earthquake cycle simulation, 2) improved deformation data with GPS and InSAR and of inversion for estimating frictional parameters, and 3) the estimation of the occurrence of large inland earthquakes in southwest Japan and of Nankai megathrust earthquakes.

Cite this article as:
Kazuro Hirahara, “Toward Advanced Earthquake Cycle Simulation,” J. Disaster Res., Vol.4, No.2, pp. 99-105, 2009.
Data files:
References
  1. [1] J. H. Dieterich, “Modeling of rock friction, 1, Experimental results and constitutive equations,” J. Geophys. Res., Vol.84, pp. 2161-2168, 1979.
  2. [2] A. Ruina, “Slip instability and state variable friction laws,” J. Geophys. Res., Vol.88, pp. 10,359-10,370, 1983.
  3. [3] N. Kato, “Numerical simulation of recurrence of asperity rupture in the Sanriku region, northeastern Japan,” J. Geophys. Res., Vol.113, B06302, doi:10.1029/2007JB005515, 2008.
  4. [4] T. Hori, N. Kato, K. Hirahara, T. Baba, and Y. Kaneda, “A numerical simulation of earthquake cycles along the Nankai trough, southwest Japan: Lateral variation in frictional property due to the slab geometry controls the nucleation position,” Earth Planet. Sci. Lett., Vol.228, pp. 215-226, 2004.
  5. [5] T. Hori, M. Hyodo, and K. Hirahara, “Toward large scale numerical simulations of earthquake cycles on faults in a three-dimensional inhomogeneous viscoelastic medium. Geophysical Exploration,” Vol.57, pp. 639-649, 2004 (in Japanese with English abstract).
  6. [6] T. Hori, “Mechanisms of separation of rupture area and variation in time interval and size of great earthquakes along the Nankai Trough,” southwest Japan, J. Earth Simulator, Vol.5, pp. 8-19, 2006.
  7. [7] Earthquake Research Committee, “Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion, Japan, Evaluation of occurrence potentials of subduction-zone earthquakes,” 2008.
  8. [8] J. R. Rice, “Spatio-temporal complexity of slip on a fault,” J. Geophys. Res., Vol.98, pp. 9885-9907, 1993.
  9. [9] S. Kodaira, T. Iidaka, A. Kato, J. Park, T. Iwasaki, and Y. Kaneda, “High pore fluid pressure may cause silent slip in the Nankai trough,” Science, Vol.304, pp. 1295-1298, 2004.
  10. [10] M. Matsubara, K. Obara, and K. Kasahara, “Three-dimensional P- and S-wave velocity structures beneath the Japan Islands obtained by high-density seismic stations by seismic tomography,” Tectonophysics, Vol.454, pp. 86-103, 2008.
  11. [11] H. Goto and J. Bielak, “Numerical simulation of fault rupture process based on a combination method of boundary integral equation method and finite element method,” J. Applied Mechanics, Vol.10, pp. 613-622, 2007 (in Japanese with English abstract).
  12. [12] Masterlark, C. DeMets, and H. F. Wang, “Homogeneous vs heterogeneous subduction zone models: Coseismic and postseismic deformation,” Geophys. Res. Lett., Vol.28, pp. 4047-4050, 2001.
  13. [13] K. Sato, N. Minagawa, M. Hyodo, T. Baba, T. Hori, and Y. Kaneda, “Effect of elastic inhomogeneity on the surface displacements in the northeastern Japan: Based on three-dimensional numerical modeling,” Earth Planets Space, Vol.59, pp. 1083-1093, 2007.
  14. [14] M. Hyodo and A. Kageyama, “Two-dimensional quasi-static earthquake cycle simulations under heterogeneous structure using a simplified -cell model,” ASC2008, X3-006, 2008.
  15. [15] C. Hashimoto, K. Fukui, and M. Matsuura, “3-D modelling of plate interfaces and numerical simulation of long-term crustal deformation in and around Japan,” Pure Appl. Geophys., Vol.161, pp. 2053-2068, 2004.
  16. [16] S. Yoshioka and K. Murakami, “Temperature distribution of the upper surface of the subducted Philippine Sea plate along the Nankai trough, southwest Japan, from a three-dimensional subduction model: relation to large interplate and low-frequency earthquakes,” Geophys. J. Int., Vol.171, pp. 302-315, 2007.
  17. [17] T. Katagi, S. Yoshioka, and M. Hashimoto, “Influence of temperature- and depth-dependent viscosity structures on postseismic deformation predictions for the large 1946 Nankai subduction zone earthquake,” Tectonophysics, Vol.454, pp. 1-13, 2008.
  18. [18] K. Hirahara, “Interplate earthquake fault slip during periodic earthquake cycle in a viscoelastic medium at a subduction zone,” Pure Apply. Geophys., Vol.159, pp. 2201-2220, 2002.
  19. [19] A. Iizuka, D. Sekita, H. Suito, M. Hyodo, K. Hirahara, D. Place, P. Mora, O. Hazama, and H. Okuda, “Parallel simulation system for earthquake generation: fault analysis modules and parallel coupling analysis,” Concurrency Computat.: Pract. Exper., Vol.14, pp. 499-519, 2000.
  20. [20] M. Hyodo and K. Hirahara, “GeoFEM kinematic earthquake cycle simulation in southwest Japan,” Pure Appl. Geophys., Vol.161, pp. 2069-2090, 2004.
  21. [21] R. H. Sibson, “Implications of fault-valve behavior for rupture nucleation and recurrence,” Tectonophysics, Vol.211, pp. 283-293, 1992.
  22. [22] N. H. Sleep and M. Blanpied, “Creep compaction and the weak rheology of the major faults,” Nature, Vol.359, pp. 687-692, 1992.
  23. [23] N. H. Sleep, “Ductile creep and compactions, and rate- and state-dependent friction within major fault zones,” J. Geophys. Res., Vol.100, pp. 13065-13080, 1995.
  24. [24] P. Segall and J. R. Rice, Dilatancy, “compactions and instability in a fluid-infiltrated fault,” J. Geophys. Res., Vol.100, pp. 22155-22171, 1995.
  25. [25] A. Bizzarri and M. Cocco, “A thermal pressurization model for the spontaneous dynamic rupture propagation on a three-dimensional fault: 1. Methodological approach,” J. Geophys. Res., Vol.111, B05303, doi:10.10292005JB003862, 2006.
  26. [26] Y. Urata, K. Kuge, and Y. Kase, “Heterogeneous rupture on homogenous faults: Three dimensional spontaneous rupture simulations with thermal pressurization, Geophys.” Res. Lett., Vol.35, L21307, doi:10.1029/2008GL035577, 2008.
  27. [27] Y. Mitsui and K. Hirahara, “Two-dimensional model calculations of earthquake cycle on a fluid-infiltrated plate interface at a subduction zone: Focal depth dependence on pore pressure conditions,” Geophys. Res. Lett., Vol.34, L09310, doi:10.1029/2007GL029597, 2007.
  28. [28] Y. Mitsui and K. Hirahara, “Long-term slow slip events are not necessarily caused by high pore fluid pressure at the plate interface: an implication from two-dimensional model calculations, Geophys.” J. Int., Vol.174, pp. 331-335, 2008.
  29. [29] Y. Mitsui and K. Hirahara, “Coseismic thermal pressurization can significantly prolong earthquake recurrence intervals on a weak rate and state friction fault: Numerical experiments using different constitutive equations,” submitted to J. Geophys. Res., 2008.
  30. [30] H. F. Wang, “Theory of linear poroelasticity with applications to geomechanics and hydrogeology,” Princeton University Press, 287pp., 2000.
  31. [31] S. Jonsson, P. Segall, R. Pedersen, and G. Bjornsson, “Post-earthquake ground movements correlated to pore-pressure transients,” Nature, Vol.424, pp. 179-183, 2003.
  32. [32] G. Peltzer, P. Rosen, F. Rogez, and K. Hudnut, “Poroelastic rebound along the Landers 1992 earthquake surface rupture,” J. Geophys. Res., Vol.103, pp. 30,131-30,145, 1998.
  33. [33] T. Masterlark and H. F. Wang, “Transient stress-coupling between the 1992 Landers and 1999 Hector Mine, California, earthquakes,” Bull. Seism. Soc. Am. Vol.92, pp. 1470-1486, 2002.
  34. [34] H. J. Melosh and A. Raefsky, “A simple and efficient method for introducing faults into finite element computations,” Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., Vol.71, pp. 1391-1400, 1981.
  35. [35] The Japan Geotechnical Society, “For using the finite element method for elasto-plastic media,” The Japanese Geotechnical Society, 2003 (in Japanese).
  36. [36] S. Kawamoto, T. Ito, and K. Hirahara, “Inversion analysis of postseismic deformation in poroelastic material using Finite Element Method,” Abstract of 2005 AGU Fall meeting, G51B-0819, 2005.
  37. [37] T. Masterlark, “Finite element model predictions of static deformation from dislocation sources in a subduction zone: Sensitivities to homogeneous, isotropic, Poisson-solid, and half-space assumptions,” J. Geophys. Res., Vol.108, doi:10.1029/2002JB002296, 2003.
  38. [38] T. Sagiya, “A decade of GEONET: 1994-2003 — The continuous GPS observation in Japan and its impact on earthquake studies —,” Earth Planets Space, Vol.56, pp.xxix-xli, 2004.
  39. [39] D. Massonnet, M. Rossi, C. Carmona, F. Adragna, G. Peltzer, K. Feigl, and T. Rabaute, “The displacement field of the Landers earthquake mapped by radar interferometry,” Nature, Vol.364, pp.138-142, 1993.
  40. [40] M. Guatteri, P. Spudich, and G. C. Beroza, “Inferring rate and state friction parameters from a rupture model of the 1995 Hyogo-ken Nambu (Kobe) Japan earthquake,” J. Geophys. Res. Vol.106, pp. 26511-26521, 2001.
  41. [41] S. Miyazaki, P. Segall, J. Fukuda, and T. Kato, “Space time distribution of afterslip following the 2003 Tokachi-oki earthquake: Implications for variations in fault zone frictional properties,” Geophys. Res. Lett., Vol.31, L06623, doi:10.1029/2003GL019410. 2004.
  42. [42] S. Miyazaki, P. Segall, J. J. McGuire, T. Kato, and Y. Hatanaka, “Spatial and temporal evolution of stress and slip rate during the 2000 Tokai slow earthquake,” J. Geophys. Res., Vol.111, B03409 doi:10.1029/2004JB003426, 2006.
  43. [43] K. Ariyoshi, T. Matsuzawa, and A. Hasegawa, “The key frictional parameters controlling spatial variations in the speed of postseismic-slip propagation on a subduction plate boundary,” Earth Planet. Sci. Lett., pp. 136-146, 2007.
  44. [44] N. Mitsui, T. Hori, S. Miyazaki, K. Hirahara, and Y. Kaneda, “Constraining interplate frictional parameters using limited terms of observation data; a preliminary experiment for developing the data assimilation of earthquake generation cycle model with time-series crustal deformation data,” Zisin, in press, 2009 (in Japanese with English abstract).
  45. [45] C. Wunsch, “The ocean circulation inverse problem,” Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. 442pp., 1996.
  46. [46] T. Hori and K. Oike, “A statistical model of temporal variation of seismicity in the Inner Zone of Southwest Japan related to the great interplate earthquakes along the Nankai trough,” J. Phys. Earth, Vol.44, pp. 349-356, 1996.
  47. [47] F. F. Pollitz and S. Sacks, “The Kobe, Japan, Earthquake: A long-delayed aftershock of the offshore 1944 Tonankai and 1946 Nankaido earthquakes,” Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., Vol.87, pp. 1-10, 1997.
  48. [48] K. Hirahara, M. Hyodo, N. Mitsui, T. Hori, and N. Kato, “Toward earthquake cycle simulation including both interplate and inland earthquakes,” Programme and Abstracts of 2007 SSJ Fall meeting, 2007.

*This site is desgined based on HTML5 and CSS3 for modern browsers, e.g. Chrome, Firefox, Safari, Edge, Opera.

Last updated on Mar. 05, 2021