Research Paper:
Dynamic Real-Time Analysis of Network Attacks Based on Dynamic Risk Probability Algorithm
Chao Wang, Jiahan Dong, Guangxin Guo, Bowen Li, and Tianyu Ren
State Grid Beijing Electric Power Research Institute
No.30 South Third Ring Middle Road, Fengtai District, Beijing 100051, China
With the rapid development of Internet technology and its application, the existence of network vulnerabilities is very common. Attackers may use the defects of software, hardware, or system security policy in the network system to access or destroy the system without authorization. How to nip in the bud and carry out a safety risk assessment and early warning is an urgent problem to be solved. Based on the overall assessment of the risk factors in the whole network, the more dangerous nodes are found and priority measures are taken. The method proposed in this paper can reflect and predict the actions of attackers, repair, and adjust the previously predicted probability. It is compared with the method that evaluates the uncertainty in the network solely by calculating the static probability. The proposed new ideas and methods better reflect the real-time changes in the actual environment of the Internet, thereby better responding to the actual situation. This method can be well applied to threat detection, threat analysis, and risk assessment of monitoring system networks, enabling monitoring network managers to evaluate and protect the security of real-time power grids. It is of great significance to effectively defend against network attacks, ensure system security, and study the resistance of control systems under network attacks.
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