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IJAT Vol.8 No.5 pp. 634-643
doi: 10.20965/ijat.2014.p0634
(2014)

Paper:

Envisioning Sustainable Manufacturing Industries of Japan

Yuji Mizuno*, Yusuke Kishita**, Shinichi Fukushige*,
and Yasushi Umeda***

*Department of Mechanical Engineering, Osaka University, 2-1 Yamada-Oka, Suita, Osaka 565-0871, Japan

**Center for Environmental Innovation Design for Sustainability, 2-1 Yamada-Oka, Osaka 565-8071, Japan

***Department of Precision Engineering, The University of Tokyo, 7-3-1 Hongo, Bunkyo, Tokyo 113-8656, Japan

Received:
April 1, 2014
Accepted:
August 1, 2014
Published:
September 5, 2014
Keywords:
sustainability scenario, backcasting, sustainable manufacturing, input-output tables, scenario approach
Abstract

In order to adapt to or overcome the difficulties Japan’s manufacturing industry is facing today, drawing normative future visions of sustainable manufacturing is required. The future is undeterminable, so the future visions cannot be fixed. Therefore, in order to draw visions of sustainable manufacturing of Japan, our research group has developed its Sustainable Manufacturing Scenario using the backcasting method. Here, a scenario is a set of stories detailing several future visions and transition paths toward them. Backcasting is a method of developing a scenario, one in which ideal future visions are developed, and then transition paths from the visions back to the present are drawn. To quantify and evaluate the future visions, we propose a model called SISA (Scenario-based Industrial Structure Analysis), which is based on Input-Output (I-O) tables. An I-O table quantitatively represents final consumption and transactions among industrial branches of a specific region in a specific period. In the SISA model, the I-O table representing future industry is given from the present I-O table, and several parameters reflect the hypotheses set in the scenario. Our research group has developed five different future visions of Japanese manufacturing industries. We set three future targets: GDP, employment, and CO2. The visions are quantified on the SISA model and investigated as to whether they achieve the future targets or not. Based on this analysis, we have concluded that drastic technological change is required to achieve the CO2 target, and cooperation with service manufacturing is important if the employment target is to be met.

Cite this article as:
Y. Mizuno, Y. Kishita, S. Fukushige, and <. Umeda, “Envisioning Sustainable Manufacturing Industries of Japan,” Int. J. Automation Technol., Vol.8, No.5, pp. 634-643, 2014.
Data files:
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