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JDR Vol.20 No.2 pp. 197-205
(2025)
doi: 10.20965/jdr.2025.p0197

Paper:

Statistical Verification of a New Blending Forecast with a Spatial Maximum Filter for “Senjo-Kousuitai” in Japan

Daisuke Hatsuzuka ORCID Icon, Ryohei Kato ORCID Icon, Shingo Shimizu ORCID Icon, and Ken-ichi Shimose

National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Resilience
3-1 Tennodai, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-0006, Japan

Corresponding author

Received:
December 7, 2023
Accepted:
January 24, 2025
Published:
April 1, 2025
Keywords:
senjo-kousuitai, numerical weather prediction, extrapolation-based nowcast, blending, maximum filter
Abstract

This study proposed a new blending approach for forecasting “senjo-kousuitai,” combining extrapolation-based nowcasting (EXT) and numerical weather prediction (NWP), to support early decision-making by municipalities regarding evacuation. A major deficiency in the short-term (1–2 h) operational forecasts of the Japan Meteorological Agency is underestimation of the precipitation area associated with senjo-kousuitai formation, which is mainly attributed to the EXT component. To address this problem, our blending approach emphasizes NWP using a cloud-resolving model for the 2-h forecast. A notable aspect of our approach involves incorporating a spatial maximum filter (MF) to account for spatial displacements between the EXT and the NWP outputs, replacing forecasted rainfall with the maximum value in the surrounding area. Compared with conventional blending methods, statistical verification of the results obtained using our proposed approach revealed marked improvements in both underestimation bias and probability of detection during the senjo-kousuitai formation stage. These findings highlight the potential of the MF-based approach for reducing forecast misses and facilitating timely municipal decision-making. The simplicity of the method also underscores its value as an urgently required disaster mitigation strategy against the increasing occurrence of senjo-kousuitai. However, the rise in false alarms, as a trade-off for fewer misses, implies an increase in the cost associated with protective actions. Although the proposed method entails increased costs, adopting this approach can be a cost-effective strategy for preserving lives by mitigating misses.

Cite this article as:
D. Hatsuzuka, R. Kato, S. Shimizu, and K. Shimose, “Statistical Verification of a New Blending Forecast with a Spatial Maximum Filter for “Senjo-Kousuitai” in Japan,” J. Disaster Res., Vol.20 No.2, pp. 197-205, 2025.
Data files:
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Last updated on Apr. 24, 2025