This study focuses on how the Uzbek public perceives the Aral Sea disaster, the role of the government, the UN, and other agencies, and their overall attitude toward the future of the region. This research is based on an online survey of 599 people across Uzbekistan. The results show that the participants are largely supportive of government and optimistic for the future of the Aral Sea region, despite also being concerned for its environment. The role of traditional and social media plays a crucial role in informing and shaping people’s opinions. A sense of inclusion and representation within the decision-making process led to increased government support amongst the attitudes of the participants.

1. [1] Anchita, A. Zhupankhan, Z. Khaibullina, Y. Kabiyev, K. M. Persson, and K. Tussupova, “Health impact of drying Aral Sea: One health and socio-economical approach,” Water, Vol.13, No.22, 3196, 2021. https://doi.org/10.3390/w13223196
2. [2] Z. Liu, T. Liu, Y. Huang, Y. Duan, X. Pan, and W. Wang, “Comparison of crop evapotranspiration and water productivity of typical delta irrigation areas in Aral Sea basin,” Remote Sensing, Vol.14, No.2, 249, 2022. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs14020249
3. [3] S. Feng, L. Ma, J. Abuduwaili, W. Liu, G. Saparov, and G. Issanova, “Organic carbon burial in the Aral Sea of Central Asia,” Applied Sciences, Vol.11, No.15, 7135, 2021. https://doi.org/10.3390/app11157135
4. [4] X. Yang, N. Wang, Q. Liang, A. Chen, and Y. Wu, “Impacts of human activities on the variations in terrestrial water storage of the Aral Sea basin,” Remote Sensing, Vol.13, No.15, 2923, 2021. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs13152923
5. [5] United Nations Development Program, “Multi-Partner Human Security Trust Fund for the Aral Sea region,” 2019. https://www.undp.org/uzbekistan/publications/multi-partner-human-security-trust-fund-aral-sea-region [Accessed October 20, 2022]
6. [6] European Commission, “Actions for the environmental rehabilitation of the Aral Sea,” 1997. https://cordis.europa.eu/project/id/IC15960109 [Accessed October 5, 2022]
7. [7] European Commission, “Team Europe study visit to the Aral Sea region,” 2022. https://www.eeas.europa.eu/node/413969_is [Accessed October 5, 2022]
8. [8] World Bank, “Development projects: North Aral Sea development and revitalization project,” 2022. https://projects.worldbank.org/en/projects-operations/project-detail/P170187 [Accessed October 5, 2022]
9. [9] O. Saidmamatov, U. Matyakubov, I. Rudenko, V. Filimonau, J. Day, and T. Luthe, “Employing ecotourism opportunities for sustainability in the Aral Sea Region: Prospects and challenges,” Sustainability, Vol.12, No.21, 9249, 2020. https://doi.org/10.3390/su12219249
10. [10] Z. Khaibullina, A. Amantaikyzy, D. Ariphanova, R. Temirbayeva, A. Mitusov, and Z. Zhurumbetova, “Socio-economic and public health impacts of climate change and water availability in Aral District, Kyzylorda Region, Kazakhstan,” Central Asian J. of Water Research, Vol.8, No.1, pp. 177-204, 2022. https://doi.org/10.29258/CAJWR/2022-R1.v8-1/177-204.eng
11. [11] Leiserowitz, “International public opinion on climate change, 2022,” Yale Program on Climate Change Communication and Data for Good at Meta, 2022.
12. [12] ILO, “Child labour – forced labour: ILO welcomes lifting of Cotton Campaign,” boycott of Uzbekistan, 2022.
13. [13] S. L. O’Hara, G. F. Wiggs, B. Mamedov, G. Davidson, and R. B. Hubbard, “Exposure to airborne dust contaminated with pesticide in the Aral Sea region,” The Lancet, Vol.355, No.9204, pp. 627-628, 2000. https://doi.org/10.1016/s0140-6736(99)04753-4
14. [14] K. Tussupova, Anchita, P. Hjorth, and M. Moravej, “Drying lakes: A review on the applied restoration strategies and health conditions in contiguous areas,” Water, Vol.12, No.3, 749, 2020. https://doi.org/10.3390/w12030749
15. [15] Eurasianet, “Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan: Differing approaches on Aral Sea, 2012. https://eurasianet.org/kazakhstan-uzbekistan-differing-approaches-on-aral-sea [Accessed June 13, 2022]
16. [16] B. Wecker, B. Karimov, B. Kamilov, U. Waller, M. Matthies, and H. Lieth, “Sustainable Aquaculture in Recirculating Systems-Feasibility Study for the Catchment Area of the Aral Sea,” USF – Institut für Umweltsystemforschung, Universität Osnabrück, 2007.
17. [17] IFSAS, “International Fund for Saving the Aral Sea,” 2022. http://www.icwc-aral.uz/ifas.htm [Accessed October 20, 2022]
18. [18] F. Olmos, “The curious case of the Republic of Karakalpakstan,” 2020. https://fpc.org.uk/the-curious-case-of-the-republic-of-karakalpakstan/ [Accessed January 31, 2023]
19. [19] World Bank, “Kazakhstan - Syr Darya control & Northern Aral Sea phase I project,” 2012. https://documents.worldbank.org/en/publication/documents-reports/documentdetail/484771475100762057/kazakhstan-syr-darya-control-northern-aral-sea-phase-i-project [Accessed June 13, 2022]
20. [20] World Bank, “World Bank and Kazakhstan plan further improvements in the Northern Aral Sea area,” 2014. https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2014/07/10/world-bank-and-kazakhstan-plan-further-improvements-in-northern-aral-sea-area [Accessed June 14, 2022]
21. [21] Eurasianet, “Northern Aral’s promise stunted by dam height, international disputes,” 2020. https://eurasianet.org/northern-arals-promise-stunted-by-dam-height-international-disputes [Accessed June 14, 2022]
22. [22] Asian Development Bank, “UZB: Surgil natural gas chemicals project: Extended annual review report,” 2021. https://www.adb.org/projects/documents/uzb-44944-014-xarr [Accessed June 14, 2022]
23. [23] New Europe, “Eriell wins Uz-Kor contract for new works in Aral Sea,” 2021. https://www.neweurope.eu/article/eriell-wins-uz-kor-contract-for-new-works-in-aral-sea/ [Accessed June 14, 2022]
24. [24] Green Aral Sea, “Green Aral Sea project,” 2022. https://greenaralsea.org/ [Accessed June 14, 2022]
25. [25] European Union to plant 27 thousand trees in Aral Sea basin, 2022. https://www.eeas.europa.eu/delegations/uzbekistan/european-union-plant-27-thousand-trees-aral-sea-basin_en [Accessed December 27, 2022]
26. [26] Eurasianet, “Is Uzbekistan to get its own Las Vegas?,” 2019. https://eurasianet.org/is-uzbekistan-to-get-its-own-las-vegas [Accessed June 14, 2022]
27. [27] Eurasianet, “Uzbekistan: Former Aral port town sees first passenger flight in 30 years, 2020. https://eurasianet.org/uzbekistan-former-aral-port-town-sees-first-passenger-flight-in-30-years [Accessed June 14, 2022]
28. [28] R. Kulmatov, “Private correspondence,” 2023.
29. [29] R. I. Woolway, S. Sharma, and J. P. Smol, “Lakes in hot water: The impacts of a changing climate on aquatic ecosystems,” BioScience, Vol.72, No.11, pp. 1050-1061, 2022. https://doi.org/10.1093/biosci/biac052
30. [30] F. Radmanesh, H. Esmaeili-Gisavandani, and M. Lotfirad, “Climate change impacts on the shrinkage of Lake Urmia,” J. of Water and Climate Change, Vol.13, No.6, pp. 2255-2277, 2022. https://doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2022.300
31. [31] P. Pouladi, S. Badiezadeh, M. Pouladi, P. Yousefi, H. Farahmand, Z. Kalantari, D. J. Yu, and M. Sivapalan, “Interconnected governance and social barriers impeding the restoration process of Lake Urmia,” J. of Hydrology, Vol.598, 126489, 2021. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.126489
32. [32] R. Maleki, M. Nooripoor, Z. Sharifi, and D. C. Petrescu, “Investigating the coping strategies of rural households to the drying of Urmia Lake,” Local Environment, pp. 1-16, 2023. https://doi.org/10.1080/13549839.2023.2202380
33. [33] O. Oyekanmi, “Climate change and environmental conflict in the Lake Chad region,” Jurnal Administrasi Publik Public Administration J., Vol.12, No.2, pp. 270-279, 2022.
34. [34] B. Koffi, B. Diawara, and S. Moriset, “Lake Chad cultural landscape: An uncommon transnational potential in the midst of multiple challenges,” D. Houehounha and E. Moukala, (Eds.), “Managing Transnational UNESCO World Heritage sites in Africa,” pp. 105-113, Springer International Publishing, 2023. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-80910-2_9
35. [35] T. Perreault, “Climate change and climate politics: Parsing the causes and effects of the drying of Lake Poopó, Bolivia, J. of Latin American Geography, Vol.19, No.3, pp. 26-46, 2020. https://doi.org/10.1353/lag.2020.0070
36. [36] N. Lima-Quispe, M. Escobar, A. J. Wickel, M. von Kaenel, and D. Purkey, “Untangling the effects of climate variability and irrigation management on water levels in Lakes Titicaca and Poopó,” J. of Hydrology: Regional Studies, Vol.37, 100927, 2021. http://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2021.100927
37. [37] V. F. Navarro Torres, G. Zamora Echenique, and R. N. Singh, “Environmental hazards associated with mining activities in the vicinity of Bolivian Poopó Lake,” J. of Mining and Environment, Vol.3, No.1, pp. 15-26, 2012. https://doi.org/10.22044/jme.2012.72
38. [38] P. Devine-Wright, “Reconsidering public acceptance of renewable energy technologies: a critical review,” M. Grubb, T. Jamasb, and M. G. Pollitt (Eds.), “Delivering a Low Carbon Electricity System,” pp. 443-461. Cambridge University Press, 2008.
39. [39] I. Rau, P. Schweizer-Ries, and J. Hildebrandt, “Participation: The Silver Bullet for the Acceptance of Renewable Energies?,” S. Kabisch, A. Kunath, P. Schweizer-Ries, and A. Steinführer (Eds.), “Vulnerability, Risks, and Complexity: Impact of Global Change on Human Habitats,” Vol.2012, pp. 177-191, 2012.
40. [40] R. Sokoloski, E. M. Markowitz, and D. Bidwell, “Public estimates of support for offshore wind energy: False consensus, pluralistic ignorance, and partisan effects,” Energy Policy, Vol.112, pp. 45-55, 2018. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2017.10.005
41. [41] D. M. McNeish, “Using lasso for predictor selection and to assuage overfitting: A method long overlooked in behavioral sciences,” Multivariate Behavioral Research, Vol.50, No.5, pp. 471-484, 2015. https://doi.org/10.1080/00273171.2015.1036965
42. [42] D. W. Hosmer and S. Lemesbow, “Goodness of fit tests for the multiple logistic regression model,” Communications in Statistics – Theory and Methods, Vol.9, No.10, pp. 1043-1069, 1980. https://doi.org/10.1080/03610928008827941
43. [43] Statistics Agency, “What percentage of household members in Uzbekistan use mobile phones?,” 2022. https://stat.uz/en/press-center/news-of-committee/22391-o-zbekistonda-uy-xo-jaligi-a-zolarining-qanchasi-uyali-aloqa-telefonidan-foydalanmoqda-3 [Accessed June 15, 2023]
44. [44] S. Y. Chyung, K. Roberts, I. Swanson, and A. Hankinson, “Evidence-based survey design: The use of a midpoint on the Likert scale,” Performance Improvement, Vol.56, No.10, pp. 15-23, 2017. https://doi.org/10.1002/pfi.21727
45. [45] W. Kuzon, M. Urbanchek, and S. McCabe, “The seven deadly sins of statistical analysis,” Annals of Plastic Surgery, Vol.37, pp. 265-272, 1996. https://doi.org/10.1097/00000637-199609000-00006
46. [46] G. M. Sullivan and A. R. Artino, “Analyzing and interpreting data from Likert-type scales,” J. of Graduate Medical Education, Vol.5, No.4, pp. 541-542, 2013. https://doi.org/10.4300%2FJGME-5-4-18
47. [47] S. Jamieson, “Likert scales: How to (ab) use them,” Medical Education, Vol.38, No.12, pp. 1217-1218, 2004. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2929.2004.02012.x
48. [48] CES Chair of Education Systems, “Factbook education systems: Uzbekistan,” 2021. https://www.research-collection.ethz.ch/handle/20.500.11850/489054 [Accessed June 20, 2022]
49. [49] Green Aral Sea Project, “Green Aral Sea,” 2022. https://greenaralsea.org/ [Accessed January 31, 2023]
50. [50] N. Makarenko, “Media landscape in Uzbekistan,” 2020. https://fpc.org.uk/media-landscape-in-uzbekistan/ [Accessed January 10, 2023]