single-dr.php

JDR Vol.18 No.1 pp. 4-10
(2023)
doi: 10.20965/jdr.2023.p0004

Paper:

Infectivity of Omicron BA.5 Comparison with Original Strain and Other Mutated Strain of SARS-CoV-2 in Japan

Junko Kurita*,†, Tamie Sugawara**, and Yasushi Ohkusa**

*Department of Nursing, Daito Bunka University
560 Iwadono, Higashimatsuyama, Saitama 355-8501, Japan

Corresponding author

**National Institute of Infectious Diseases, Tokyo, Japan

Received:
August 31, 2022
Accepted:
December 5, 2022
Published:
January 20, 2023
Keywords:
BA.5, effective reproduction number, omicron SARS-CoV-2, vaccine coverage, waning vaccine effectiveness
Abstract

Background: Earlier studies have indicated the BA.5 sublineage of Omicron variant strain of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) as more infective than BA.2. Object: This study estimated BA.5 infectivity while controlling other factors possibly affecting BA.5 infectivity including vaccine effectiveness, waning effectiveness, other mutated strains, Olympic Games, and countermeasures. Method: The effective reproduction number R(t) was regressed on shares of BA.5 and vaccine coverage, vaccine coverage with some delay, temperature, humidity, mobility, shares of other mutated strains, countermeasures including the Go to Travel Campaign, and the Olympic Games and associated countermeasures. The study period was February 2020–July 22, 2022, using data available on August 12, 2022. Results: A 120 day lag was assumed to assess waning. Mobility, some states of emergency, vaccine coverage and those with lag, and the Delta and Omicron BA.2 proportions were found to be significant. The omicron BA.1 proportion was significant, but with an unexpected sign. The estimated coefficient of BA.5 was negative but not significant. The Go to Travel Campaign was significantly negative, indicating reduced infectivity. The Olympic Games were negative but not significant, indicating that they did not raise infectivity. Discussion: The obtained estimated results show that BA.5 did not have higher infectivity than the original strain. It was lower than either Delta or Omicron BA.2 variant strains. That finding might be inconsistent with results obtained from earlier studies. This study controlled several factors potentially affecting R(t), though the earlier studies did not. Therefore, results from this study might be more reliable than those of earlier studies.

Cite this article as:
J. Kurita, T. Sugawara, and Y. Ohkusa, “Infectivity of Omicron BA.5 Comparison with Original Strain and Other Mutated Strain of SARS-CoV-2 in Japan,” J. Disaster Res., Vol.18, No.1, pp. 4-10, 2023.
Data files:
References
  1. [1] European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC), “Epidemiological Update: SARS-CoV-2 Omicron Sub-Lineages BA.4 and BA.5,” 2002. https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/news-events/epidemiological-update-sars-cov-2-omicron-sub-lineages-ba4-and-ba5 [Accessed August 22, 2022]
  2. [2] National Institute of Infectious Diseases (NIID), “Updated Situation of COVID-19 Outbreak (July 13, 2022),” 2022 (in Japanese). https://www.niid.go.jp/niid/ja/2019-ncov/11309-covid19-ab90th.html [Accessed August 20, 2022]
  3. [3] Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, “Press Releases,” (in Japanese). https://www.mhlw.go.jp/stf/newpage_10723.html [Accessed August 18, 2022]
  4. [4] J. Kurita, T. Sugawara, and Y. Ohkusa, “Estimating Event Ban Effects on COVID-19 Outbreak in Japan,” J. of Health Science and Development, Vol.4, No.2, pp. 12-17, 2021. https://doi.org/10.3619/2581-7310.1000137
  5. [5] Tokyo Metropolitan Government, “Data of COVID-19 Monitoring Meeting in Metropolitan Tokyo,” (in Japanese). https://www.bousai.metro.tokyo.lg.jp/taisaku/saigai/1013388/index.html [Accessed August 21, 2022]
  6. [6] E. G. Levin et al., “Waning Immune Humoral Response to BNT162b2 Covid-19 Vaccine over 6 Months,” N. Engl. J. Med., Vol.385, No.24, e84, 2021.
  7. [7] H. Chemaitelly et al., “Waning of BNT162b2 Vaccine Protection Against SARS-CoV-2 Infection in Qatar,” N. Engl. J. Med., Vol.385, No.24, e83, 2021.
  8. [8] B. Li et al., “Viral Infection and Transmission in a Large, Well-Traced Outbreak Caused by the SARS-CoV-2 Delta Variant,” medRxiv, 2021. https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.07.07.21260122

*This site is desgined based on HTML5 and CSS3 for modern browsers, e.g. Chrome, Firefox, Safari, Edge, Opera.

Last updated on Feb. 01, 2023