single-dr.php

JDR Vol.17 No.6 pp. 956-975
(2022)
doi: 10.20965/jdr.2022.p0956

Paper:

Improvement of a Potential Estimation Algorithm for Surface Avalanches Caused by Snowfall During a Cyclone

Kazuki Nakamura

Snow and Ice Research Center, National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Resilience (NIED)
187-16 Maeyama, Suyoshi, Nagaoka, Niigata 940-0821, Japan

Corresponding author

Received:
April 10, 2022
Accepted:
August 29, 2022
Published:
October 1, 2022
Keywords:
surface avalanche, cyclone snowfall, unrimed snow crystals, avalanche potential, geographic information system (GIS)
Abstract

The weak layer of snow formed by snowfall during cyclone passage generates surface avalanches. This type of avalanche can cause significant problems for humans, traffic, and logistics. Visualizing the level of hazard of these surface avalanches can help minimize the damage they cause. The topographic, snow pit, and meteorological characteristics of two surface avalanches caused by snowfall from a cyclone were analyzed. An algorithm for estimating the risk of surface avalanches caused by snowfall in a typical winter monsoon and during a cyclone was developed based on the analysis results. By incorporating the results of our previous study into the algorithm for estimating the risk of surface avalanches due to snowfall from a cyclone, we were able to improve the avalanche potential estimation algorithm such that it can cover surface avalanches generated by snowfall following the typical winter monsoon pattern after a cyclone has passed. In the three cases we verified, a warning was issued because the threshold of danger was exceeded before the surface avalanche occurred.

Cite this article as:
K. Nakamura, “Improvement of a Potential Estimation Algorithm for Surface Avalanches Caused by Snowfall During a Cyclone,” J. Disaster Res., Vol.17 No.6, pp. 956-975, 2022.
Data files:
References
  1. [1] K. Nakamura, I. Kamiishi, and O. Abe, “Characteristic of avalanches caused by cyclonic heavy snowfall in February, 2014,” J. of Snow Engineering of Japan, Vol.30, No.1, pp. 106-113, 2014 (in Japanese).
  2. [2] K. Nakamura, K. Kosugi, and M. Nemoto, “The field investigation of an avalanche disaster in Nasu-machi (Preliminary Figures, conducted in March 28, 2017),” 2017, https://www.bosai.go.jp/seppyo/kenkyu_naiyou/seppyousaigai/2017/report_20170328_NasuOnsen.pdf (in Japanese) [accessed April 1, 2022]
  3. [3] Investigation Committee on the Avalanche Accidents at Nasu-machi in March 27, “Report for the avalanche accidents at Nasu-machi in March 27 by Investigation Committee,” 2017, https://www.pref.tochigi.lg.jp/m01/kensyouiinkai.html (in Japanese) [accessed April 1, 2022]
  4. [4] I. Kamiishi et al., “The second field investigation of an avalanche disaster in Nasu-machi (Preliminary Figures, conducted in April 2, 2017),” 2017, https://www.bosai.go.jp/seppyo/kenkyu_naiyou/seppyousaigai/2017/report_20170410_NasuOnsen.pdf (in Japanese) [accessed April 1, 2022]
  5. [5] H. Matsushita, “Dry-snow avalanches occurred due to non-rimed precipitation particles on March 2, 2021,” Annual Report on Snow and Ice Studies in Hokkaido, No.40, pp. 19-22, 2021 (in Japanese).
  6. [6] K. Nakamura, “Implementation and demonstration of a system for the forecasting of surface avalanche potential caused by snowfall from a cyclone,” J. Disaster Res., Vol.14, No.9, pp. 1201-1226, doi: 10.20965/jdr.2019.p1201, 2019.
  7. [7] B. A. Colle, D. Stark, and S. E. Yuter, “Surface microphysical observations within East Coast winter storms on Long Island, New York,” Monthly Weather Review, Vol.142, No.9, pp. 3126-3146, doi: 10.1175/MWR-D-14-00035.1, 2014.
  8. [8] G. Murai, “On the relation between natural snow-crystal forms and the upper-air conditions,” Low Temperature Science, Series A, Physical Sciences, Vol.15, pp. 13-32, 1956 (in Japanese with English abstract).
  9. [9] K. Nakamura, K. Nishida, and Y. Saito, “Improvement of a system for the forecasting of surface avalanche potential caused by snowfall from a cyclone,” Proc. of Cold Region Technology Conf., Vol.37, pp. 57-62, 2021 (in Japanese).
  10. [10] M. Ishizaka et al., “Low temperature-type snow crystals as a cause of avalanches,” Summaries of JSSI and JSSE Joint Conf. on Snow and Ice Research 2015, p. 43, doi: 10.14851/jcsir.2015.0_43, 2015 (in Japanese).
  11. [11] O. Abe, K. Nakamura, and K. Kosugi, “Surface avalanches in Yamagata and Miyagi Prefectures in 2015,” Natural Disaster Research Report of the National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Resilience, No.49, pp. 107-114, 2016 (in Japanese with English abstract).
  12. [12] Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), “JMA numerical weather prediction,” https://www.jma.go.jp/jma/jma-eng/jma-center/nwp/nwp-top.htm [accessed April 1, 2022]
  13. [13] M. Murakami et al., “Microphysical structures of warm-frontal clouds – The 20 June 1987 case study –,” J. of the Meteorological Society of Japan, Ser. II, Vol.70, No.5, pp. 877-895, doi: 10.2151/jmsj1965.70.5_877, 1992.
  14. [14] M. Ishizaka et al., “Characteristics of snowfalls and snow crystals caused by two extratropical cyclones passing along the Pacific Ocean side of Japan on February 8 and 14–15 observed in Niigata district, 2014 – In relation to frequent occurrence of avalanches in Kanto-Koshin areas –,” J. of the Japanaese Society of Snow and Ice, Vol.77, No.4, pp. 285-302, 2015 (in Japanese with English abstract).
  15. [15] T. Hasemi, “On a relation between probability occurrence of solid precipitation and ground air temperature (1): On the locality of the relation and possibility of prediction of precipitation type,” J. of the Japanaese Society of Snow and Ice, Vol.53, No.1, pp. 33-43, doi: 10.5331/seppyo.53.33, 1991 (in Japanese with English abstract).
  16. [16] D. McClung and P. Schaerer, “The avalanche handbook,” 3rd edition, The Mountaineers Books, 2006.
  17. [17] B. Tremper, “Staying alive in avalanche terrain,” 2nd edition, The Mountaineers Books, 2008.
  18. [18] S. Ikeda, “Formation and persistence of snow instability associated with precipitation-induced weak layer that caused Mumeizawa avalanche accident,” J. of the Japanaese Society of Snow and Ice, Vol.77, No.1, pp. 17-35, 2015 (in Japanese with English abstract).
  19. [19] S. Yamaguchi, K. Nakamura, and I. Kamiisi, “Research report on the simultaneous multiple avalanche accidents that occurred in January, 2015,” Natural Disaster Research Report of the National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Resilience, No.49, pp. 101-105, 2016 (in Japanese with English abstract).
  20. [20] A. Degawa, “Avalanche incident case study 190,” Yama-Kei Publishers Co., Ltd., 2020 (in Japanese).
  21. [21] T. Ozeki et al., “Investigations of two avalanches occurred in Hokkaido in early March, 2020 – An avalanche at Mt. Nitonupuri and an avalanche at Mt. Sokipdake –,” Annual Report on Snow and Ice Studies in Hokkaido, No.39, pp. 55-58, 2020 (in Japanese).
  22. [22] H. Hirashima et al., “Avalanche forecasting in a heavy snowfall area using the snowpack model,” Cold Regions Science and Technology, Vol.51, Nos.2-3, pp. 191-203, doi: 10.1016/j.coldregions.2007.05.013, 2008.
  23. [23] H. Hirashima, “Success and challenges of avalanche prediction using numerical snowpack model,” J. of the Japanaese Society of Snow and Ice, Vol.76, No.6, pp. 411-419, 2014 (in Japanese with English abstract).
  24. [24] M. Lehning et al., “A physical SNOWPACK model for the Swiss avalanche warning: Part II. Snow microstructure,” Cold Regions Science and Technology, Vol.35, No.3, pp. 147-167, doi: 10.1016/S0165-232x(02)00073-3, 2002.
  25. [25] M. Lehning et al., “A physical SNOWPACK model for the Swiss avalanche warning: Part III: Meteorological forcing, thin layer formation and evaluation,” Cold Regions Science and Technology, Vol.35, No.3, pp. 169-184, doi: 10.1016/S0165-232X(02)00072-1, 2002.

*This site is desgined based on HTML5 and CSS3 for modern browsers, e.g. Chrome, Firefox, Safari, Edge, Opera.

Last updated on Dec. 06, 2024