JDR Vol.16 No.5 pp. 866-873
doi: 10.20965/jdr.2021.p0866


Analysis of Evacuation Time for Vulnerable Individuals During Inundation of Lowland Areas

Chang Yeon Bae and Kenichiro Kobayashi

Department of Urban Management, Kobe University
1-1 Rokkodai-cho, Nada-ku, Kobe, Hyogo 657-8501, Japan

Corresponding author

December 9, 2020
April 26, 2021
August 1, 2021
multi-agent simulation, optimum route, flood disaster, wide-area evacuation

There is an increasing demand for establishing pre-emptive measures for disaster management. However, there is a lack of support systems available for vulnerable individuals living in disaster-prone regions in Korea. This study constructs a multi-agent simulation model to analyze the evacuation time for Dongnae district and Yeonje district in Busan, Korea. In disaster-prone regions, vulnerable people experience difficulties, such as, obtaining updated information about the disaster situation, and this reduces their evacuation speed. Additionally, there is a possibility that the evacuation speed, while evacuating vulnerable people, may decrease due to environmental and geographic factors, including the slope and elevation of the areas. Therefore, this section of the society requires special attention and policies that are different from those made for people who may not face such calamities and are physically abled. An analysis based on factors such as road slopes and delays in evacuation due to flooding, was conducted to formulate realistic evacuation plans for people who are vulnerable. The location of shelters in the case of flooding in Dongnae and Yeonje district, have been better identified. Furthermore, it was confirmed that the evacuation time could be reduced if wide-area evacuation is implemented. This study provides a base for developing suitable shelters and evacuation plans for disaster-prone regions.

Cite this article as:
C. Bae and K. Kobayashi, “Analysis of Evacuation Time for Vulnerable Individuals During Inundation of Lowland Areas,” J. Disaster Res., Vol.16 No.5, pp. 866-873, 2021.
Data files:
  1. [1] J.-H. Shim, J.-T. Kim, Y.-B. Kim, and B.-H. Kang, “Fundamental an emergency measure for the elimination of flood prone areas in Korea (II),” Water for Future, Vol.39, No.5, pp. 54-64, 2006 (in Korean).
  2. [2] S. Kang and J. Jung, “Study on the distribution characteristics of storm damage area: The case of Gyeonggi-do,” KSCE J. of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research, Vol.32, No.5D, pp. 507-517, doi: 10.12652/ksce.2012.32.5d.507, 2012 (in Korean).
  3. [3] Korea law, 2018, [accessed October 6, 2020]
  4. [4] A. J. Pel, M. C. J. Bliemer, and S. P. Hoogendoorn, “A review on travel behaviour modelling in dynamic traffic simulation models for evacuations,” Transportation, Vol.39, No.1, pp. 97-123, doi: 10.1007/s11116-011-9320-6, 2012.
  5. [5] K. Hosoi, T. Katada, T. Sumi, and M. Yokomori, “Study on river levees function as a place for evacuation against huge river flooding,” J. of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. B1 (Hydraulic Engineering), Vol.72, No.4, pp. I_1315-I_1320, doi: 10.2208/jscejhe.72.i_1315, 2016 (in Japanese).
  6. [6] J. S. Seo, J. H. Park, and J. S. Kim, “The effects of inundation hazard on property value: The case of Yangcheon-gu, Seoul,” Appraisal Studies, Vol.16, No.1, pp. 1-19, doi: 10.23843/as.16.1.1, 2017 (in Korean).
  7. [7] T. Yamada and A. Takagi, “A planning support system of shelter location from the viewpoint of resident,” Infrastructure Planning Review, Vol.21, pp. 325-334, doi: 10.2208/journalip.21.325, 2004 (in Japanese).
  8. [8] Fire and Disaster Management Agency (FDMA), “Disaster Prevention Manual – Earthquake Countermeasures Awareness Material,” 2016.
  9. [9] P. Murray-Tuite and B. Wolshon, “Evacuation transportation modeling: An overview of research, development, and practice,” Transportation Research Part C: Emerging Technologies, Vol.27, pp. 25-45, doi: 10.1016/j.trc.2012.11.005, 2013.
  10. [10] L. Aguilar, M. Lalith, T. Ichimura, and M. Hori, “On the performance and scalability of an HPC enhanced Multi Agent System based evacuation simulator,” Procedia Computer Science, Vol.108, pp. 937-947, doi: 10.1016/j.procs.2017.05.284, 2017.
  11. [11] A. M. Sadri, S. V. Ukkusuri, P. Murray-Tuite, and H. Gladwin, “How to evacuate: Model for understanding the routing strategies during hurricane evacuation,” J. of Transportation Engineering, Vol.140, No.1, pp. 61-69, doi: 10.1061/(ASCE)TE.1943-5436.0000613, 2014.
  12. [12] J. Urata and A. J. Pel, “People’s risk recognition preceding evacuation and its role in demand modeling and planning,” Risk Analysis, Vol.38, No.5, pp. 889-905, doi: 10.1111/risa.12931, 2018.
  13. [13] T. Takasao, M. Shiiba, and T. Hori, “Micro model simulation and control of flood refuge actions,” Doboku Gakkai Ronbunshu, No.509/II-30, pp. 15-25, doi: 10.2208/jscej.1995.509_15, 1995 (in Japanese).
  14. [14] K. Kobayashi, N. Sengo, M. Maruyama, K. Kimura, T. Hamanaka, C. Y. Bae, and F. Meng, “Analysis of large scale evacuation drill by Ashiya high-school and its reproduction using multiagent evacuation model,” J. of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. B1 (Hydraulic Engineering), Vol.75, No.2, pp. I_1345-I_1350, doi: 10.2208/jscejhe.75.2_i_1345, 2019 (in Japanese).
  15. [15] T. Saito and H. Kagami, “Simulation of evacuation behavior from tsunami utilizing multiagent system: A case study of Aonae, Okushiri island,” J. of Architecture and Planning (Trans. of AIJ), Vol.70, Issue 597, pp. 229-234, doi: 10.3130/aija.70.229_6, 2005 (in Japanese).
  16. [16] H. H. Yoo and S. R. Son, “Suitability assessment for flood disaster shelters of Jinju city,” J. of Korean Society for Geospatial Information Science, Vol.20, No.3, pp. 91-99, doi: 10.7319/kogsis.2012.20.3.091, 2012 (in Korean).
  17. [17] J. Kwon, D. Yoon, and J. Koh, “Analysis of shelters acceptable range according to evacuation speed during flood disaster by severe rain storm,” J. of Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation, Vol.15, No.3, pp. 115-123, doi: 10.9798/KOSHAM.2015.15.3.115, 2015 (in Korean).
  18. [18] S. Lee, R. Kokido, T. Kurihara, M. Kawabata, and T. Takahashi, “Survey report on travel behavior of elderly people in Tokyo’s 23 wards,” CSIS Discussion Paper No.110, Center for Spatial Information Science, The University of Tokyo, 2011 (in Japanese).
  19. [19] K.-H. Kim and J.-W. Park, “Analysis of optimal evacuation route for flood disaster,” The Korea Contents Association, Vol.18, No.2, pp. 169-177, doi: 10.5392/JKCA.2018.18.02.169, 2018 (in Korean).
  20. [20] Busan Metropolitan City, “Flood damage Report No.52-6260000-000365-01,” 2015, (in Korean) [accessed June 17, 2021]
  21. [21] OpenStreetMap, 2020, [accessed October 6, 2020]
  22. [22] ALOS Research and Application Project of Earth Observation Research Center (EORC), Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA), “ALOS Global Digital Surface Model ‘ALOS World 3D – 30 m (AW3D30)’,” 2020, [accessed October 6, 2020]
  23. [23] Public Data Portal, Korea, 2020, [accessed October 6, 2020]
  24. [24] E. Satoh, T. Yoshikawa, and A. Yamada, “Investigation of converted walking distance considering resistance of topographical features and changes in physical strength by age: Model for location planning of regional facilities considering topographical condition and aging society Part 1,” J. of Architecture and Planning (Trans. of AIJ), Vol.71, Issue 610, pp. 133-139, doi: 10.3130/aija.71.133_2, 2006 (in Japanese).
  25. [25] Y. O. Choi and J. W. Choi, “A simulation for suitable gradients considering assistants to evacuate with the handicapped from ramp way,” Residential Environment: J. of the Residential Environment Institute of Korea, Vol.16, No.4, pp. 29-40, doi: 10.22313/reik.2018.16.4.29, 2018 (in Korean).
  26. [26] E. Mas, B. Adriano, and S. Koshimura, “An integrated simulation of tsunami hazard and human evacuation in La Punta, Peru,” J. Disaster Res., Vol.8, No.2, pp. 285-295, doi: 10.20965/jdr.2013.p0285, 2013.
  27. [27] H.-K. Lee, W.-H. Hong, and Y. H. Lee, “A Study on the Evacuation Speed Changes According to the Depth of Water,” J. of the Architectural Institute of Korea Planning & Design, Vol.32, No.3, pp. 75-82, doi: 10.5659/jaik_pd.2016.32.3.75, 2016.
  28. [28] Korean Statistical Information Service, 2020, [accessed October 6, 2020]

*This site is desgined based on HTML5 and CSS3 for modern browsers, e.g. Chrome, Firefox, Safari, Edge, Opera.

Last updated on Jul. 12, 2024