single-dr.php

JDR Vol.15 No.7 pp. 1011-1024
(2020)
doi: 10.20965/jdr.2020.p1011

Paper:

The Determinants of Residents’ Evacuation Behavior in the Torrential Rain in Western Japan in 2018: Examination of Survey Data of Victims in Okayama Prefecture

Shoji Ohtomo*1,†, Reo Kimura*2, Yoshiaki Kawata*3, and Keiko Tamura*4

*1Konan Women’s University
6-2-23 Morikita-machi, Higashinada-ku, Kobe, Hyogo 658-0001, Japan

Corresponding author

*2School of Human and Environment, University of Hyogo, Hyogo, Japan

*3Faculty of Societal Safety Sciences, Kansai University, Osaka, Japan

*4Risk Management Office, Headquarters for Risk Management, Niigata University, Niigata, Japan

Received:
May 28, 2020
Accepted:
August 31, 2020
Published:
December 1, 2020
Keywords:
flooding, torrential rain in western Japan in 2018, evacuation behavior, hazard map, decision-making
Abstract

The torrential rain (named “the July 2018 heavy rain”) from June 28 to July 8 in 2018 resulted in tremendous human and property damage. There were 237 deaths and 7,173 cases of flooding above the floor level. During the torrential rain, the low rate of evacuation behavior of residents in the affected area was also a problem. The Okayama prefecture conducted a mail survey with residents that suffered housing damage caused by the torrential rain (valid sample n = 3,765). The survey measured what residents’ awareness and knowledge were of flooding before the torrential rain, residents’ prediction of flooding and choice and reason of evacuation behavior during the emergency heavy rain warning and the evacuation order (emergency). This study analyzed the determinants of residents’ evacuation behaviors during the torrential rain with the survey data. The results indicated that, although most residents were aware of hazard maps before the torrential rain, few predicted flooding. Most residents were aware of the evacuation shelters and had a prior evacuation plan. However, some residents made no attempt to evacuate, even when their houses were damaged. During the emergency heavy rain warning, feeling a sense of crisis was an important factor to promote evacuation behavior. And, during the evacuation order (emergency), the majority of those who took actual evacuation behaviors was those who were approached by public sectors such as the fire department and the police. Moreover, residents’ judgment based on scientific information such as hazard maps and prediction of flooding before the torrential rain had little effect on evacuation behavior during the emergency heavy rain warning and the evacuation order (emergency). Therefore, the study indicates the importance of approaching residents’ affective decision-making, instead of relying on rational decision-making, to promote evacuation behavior when people are in unusual situations.

Cite this article as:
S. Ohtomo, R. Kimura, Y. Kawata, and K. Tamura, “The Determinants of Residents’ Evacuation Behavior in the Torrential Rain in Western Japan in 2018: Examination of Survey Data of Victims in Okayama Prefecture,” J. Disaster Res., Vol.15 No.7, pp. 1011-1024, 2020.
Data files:
References
  1. [1] Cabinet Office, Government of Japan, “The report about the damage of the torrential rain in western Japan in 2018,” 2018, http://www.bousai.go.jp/updates/h30typhoon7/pdf/310109_1700_h30typhoon7_01.pdf (in Japanese) [accessed October 28, 2019]
  2. [2] Hiroshima city, “The recommendations and examinations of strategies for public evacuation in the July 2018 heavy rain,” 2018, https://www.city.hiroshima.lg.jp/uploaded/attachment/54796.pdf (in Japanese) [accessed May 8, 2020]
  3. [3] Hiroshima Business and Management School (HBMS), “Survey of attitude and behavior for evacuation in the July 2018 heavy rain: Analysis by disaster marketing research team (brief report),” 2018, https://mba.pu-hiroshima.ac.jp/pdf/h30/180801a_bousaipress.pdf (in Japanese) [accessed May 2, 2020]
  4. [4] “Alert level, the belief of evacuation, improvement of attitude and optimism feeling due to the torrential rain,” Yomiuri Shimbun, morning edition, June 16, 2019.
  5. [5] K. Ninomiya, E. Ikuta, and D. Saeki, “Effect of Consciousness and Preparedness for Disaster on Decision-Making during Disaster: Survey of Evacuation Behavior in the Case of Typhoon Lan,” J. of Social Safety Science, Vol.35, pp. 233-242, 2019 (in Japanese).
  6. [6] P. Slovic, ““If I look at the mass I will never act”: Psychic numbing and genocide,” Judgment and Decision Making, Vol.2, No.2, pp. 79-95, 2007.
  7. [7] K. E. Stanovich and R. F. West, “Individual differences in reasoning: Implications for the rationality debate?,” Behavioral and Brain Sciences, Vol.23, Issue 5, pp. 645-665, 2000.
  8. [8] I. L. Janis and L. Mann, “Decision Making: A Psychological Analysis of Conflict, Choice, and Commitment,” Free Press, 1977.
  9. [9] S. Ohtomo, R. Kimura, and N. Hirata, “The Influences of Residents’ Evacuation Patterns in the 2016 Kumamoto Earthquake on Public Risk Perceptions and Trust Toward Authorities,” J. Disaster Res., Vol.12, No.6, pp. 1139-1150, 2017.
  10. [10] S. Ohtomo and Y. Hirose, “Consumer’s psychological processes of hoarding and avoidant purchasing after the Tohoku earthquake,” The Japanese J. of Psychology, Vol.84, No.6, pp. 557-565, doi: 10.4992/jjpsy.84.557, 2014 (in Japanese).
  11. [11] M. Siegrist and H. Gutscher, “Flooding Risks: A Comparison of Lay People’s Perceptions and Expert’s Assessments in Switzerland,” Risk Analysis, Vol.26, No.4, pp. 971-979, 2006.
  12. [12] P. Bubeck, W. J. W. Botzen, and J. C. J. H. Aerts, “A Review of Risk Perceptions and Other Factors that Influence Flood Mitigation Behavior,” Risk Analysis, Vol.32, Issue 9, pp. 1481-1495, 2012.
  13. [13] G. Wachinger, O. Renn, C. Begg, and C. Kuhlicke, “The Risk Perception Paradox – Implications for Governance and Communication of Natural Hazards,” Risk Analysis, Vol.33, No.6, pp. 1049-1065, 2013.
  14. [14] R. Kimura, S. Ohtomo, and N. Hirata, “A Study on the 2016 Kumamoto Earthquake: Citizen’s Evaluation of Earthquake Information and Their Evacuation and Sheltering Behaviors,” J. Disaster Res., Vol.12, No.6, pp. 1117-1138, 2017.
  15. [15] K. Nakayachi, J. S. Becker, S. H. Potter, and M. Dixon, “Residents’ Reactions to Earthquake Early Warnings in Japan,” Risk Analysis, Vol.39, No.8, pp. 1723-1740, 2019.
  16. [16] C. Solberg, T. Rossetto, and H. Joffe, “The social psychology of seismic hazard adjustment: re-evaluating the international literature,” Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, Vol.10, Issue 8, pp. 1663-1677, 2010.
  17. [17] T. Grothmann and F. Reusswig, “People at Risk of Flooding: Why Some Residents Take Precautionary Action While Others Do Not,” Natural Hazards, Vol.38, No.1, pp. 101-120, 2006.
  18. [18] J. de Boer, W. J. W. Botzen, and T. Terpstra, “More Than Fear Induction: Toward an Understanding of People’s Motivation to Be Well-Prepared for Emergencies in Flood-Prone Areas,” Risk Analysis, Vol.35, No.3, pp. 518-535, 2015.
  19. [19] K. Takao, T. Motoyoshi, T. Sato, T. Fukuzondo, K. Seo, and S. Ikeda, “Factors determining residents’ preparedness for floods in modern megalopolises: the case of the Tokai flood disaster in Japan,” J. of Risk Research, Vol.7, Issue 7-8, pp. 775-787, 2004.
  20. [20] K. Heller, D. B. Alexander, M. Gatz, B. G. Knight, and T. Rose, “Social and Personal Factors as Predictors of Earthquake Preparation: The Role of Support Provision, Network Discussion, Negative Affect, Age, and Education,” J. of Applied Social Psychology, Vol.35, Issue 2, pp. 399-422, 2005.
  21. [21] S. Milgram, “Behavioral Study of obedience,” The J. of Abnormal and Social Psychology, Vol.67, No.4, pp. 371-378, 1963.
  22. [22] R. Kimura, H. Hayashi, S. Tatsuki, K. Tamura, K. Horie, and A. Kuromiya, “Defined Evacuation and Sheltering Processes of Disaster Victims in the 2004 Mid-Niigata Prefecture Earthquake,” J. of social safety science, Vol.7, pp. 161-170, 2005.
  23. [23] Okayama prefecture, “Questionnaire on Responsive Actions to July 2018 Heavy Rain,” 2019, https://www.pref.okayama.jp/uploaded/life/601705_5031914_misc.pdf (in Japanese) [accessed May 8, 2020]
  24. [24] Okayama prefecture, “The disaster record of the July 2018 heavy rain,” 2019, http://kikikanri.pref.okayama.jp/saigai2018/kirokushi2018.pdf (in Japanese) [accessed May 8, 2020]
  25. [25] I. M. Martin, H. Bender, and C. Raish, “What Motivates Individuals to Protect Themselves from Risks: The Case of Wildland Fires,” Risk Analysis, Vol.27, Issue 4, pp. 887-900, 2007.
  26. [26] P.-C. Bürkner, “brms: An R Package for Bayesian Multilevel Models Using Stan,” J. of Statistical Software, Vol.80, No.1, 28pp., 2017.

*This site is desgined based on HTML5 and CSS3 for modern browsers, e.g. Chrome, Firefox, Safari, Edge, Opera.

Last updated on Apr. 22, 2024