single-dr.php

JDR Vol.15 No.4 pp. 490-502
(2020)
doi: 10.20965/jdr.2020.p0490

Paper:

Justification of Possible Casualty-Reduction Countermeasures Based on Global Tsunami Hazard Assessment for Tsunami-Prone Regions over the Past 400 Years

Takuro Otake*, Constance Ting Chua**, Anawat Suppasri***,†, and Fumihiko Imamura***

*Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Tohoku University
6-6 Aoba, Aramaki-Aza, Aoba, Sendai, Miyagi 980-8572, Japan

**Asian School of the Environment, Nanyang Technological University, Nanyang Avenue, Singapore

***International Research Institute of Disaster Science (IRIDeS), Tohoku University, Miyagi, Japan

Corresponding author

Received:
April 17, 2019
Accepted:
January 19, 2020
Published:
June 1, 2020
Keywords:
tsunami, hazard assessment, countermeasures, disaster management, global scale
Abstract

Tsunami hazards can be considered as multiregional in their impacts, as transoceanic waves can propagate beyond local areas, as evidenced in recent tsunami events, e.g., the 2004 Indian Ocean and 2011 Great East Japan tsunamis. However, in a single event, the characteristics of a tsunami (wave amplitude and arrival time) can differ from location to location, due to a myriad of reasons including distance from the source, bathymetry of the seafloor, and local effects. Tsunami countermeasures cannot be similarly applied globally. It is prudent to investigate tsunami hazard characteristics at a regional scale in order to evaluate suitable tsunami countermeasures. On this basis, approximately 300 major historical tsunamis have been reproduced in this study based on seismic records over the last 400 years. In this study, numerical analysis was performed to reproduce tsunami waveforms at each global tidal station, and numerical results were verified by comparing them with the 2011 Great East Japan tsunami record data. Non-structural tsunami countermeasures were proposed and selected for each region based on two main criteria – wave amplitudes and arrival times. Evaluation of selected countermeasures indicate that planning for evacuation processes (such as evacuation route mapping, signage and evacuation drills) are important in all situations. For local large tsunamis, evacuation drills are essential to ensure a community is well prepared for self-evacuation due to the short amount of time available for evacuation. Early warning systems were most effective where tsunamis are of large and distant origins. On the other hand, it would be more appropriate to invest in public alert systems for tsunamis of smaller magnitudes. Using these selection criteria, combinations of countermeasures were proposed for each region to focus their attention on, based on the simulated results of the historical tsunami events. The end-goal of this study is to inform decision-making processes and regional planning of tsunami disaster management.

Cite this article as:
T. Otake, C. Chua, A. Suppasri, and F. Imamura, “Justification of Possible Casualty-Reduction Countermeasures Based on Global Tsunami Hazard Assessment for Tsunami-Prone Regions over the Past 400 Years,” J. Disaster Res., Vol.15, No.4, pp. 490-502, 2020.
Data files:
References
  1. [1] K. Kawata and N. Koike, “Importance of tsunami risk assessment in the Pacific Rim,” Shizen Saigai Kagaku, Vol.19, No.3, pp. 294-298, 2000 (in Japanese).
  2. [2] A. Suppasri, T. Futami, S. Tabuchi, and F. Imamura, “Mapping of historical tsunamis in the Indian and Southwest Pacific Oceans,” Int. J. of Disaster Risk Reduction, Vol.1, pp. 62-71, doi: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2012.05.003, 2012.
  3. [3] R. Omira, M. A. Baptista, and L. Matias, “Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard in the Northeast Atlantic from Near- and Far-Field Tectonic Sources,” Pure and Applied Geophysics, Vol.172, pp. 901-920, doi: 10.1007/s00024-014-0949-x, 2015.
  4. [4] T. Otake, A. Suppasri, P. Latcharote, and F. Imamura, “A global Assessment of Historical and Future Tsunami Hazard based on Seismic Records over the last 400 years,” J. of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. B2 (Coastal Engineering), Vol.73, No.2, pp. I_1609-I_1614, 2017.
  5. [5] G. Davies, J. Griffin, F. Løvholt, S. Glimsdal, C. Harbitz, H. K. Thio, S. Lorito, R. Basili, J. Selva, and E. L. Geist, “A global probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment from earthquake sources,” Geological Society, London, Special Publications, Vol.456, No.1, pp. 219-244, doi: 10.1144/SP456.5, 2017.
  6. [6] United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR), “Global assessment report on disaster risk reduction,” 2009, https://www.preventionweb.net/english/hyogo/gar/report/index.php [accessed April 16, 2017]
  7. [7] A. Grezio et al., “Probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis: multiple sources and global applications,” Reviews of Geophysics, Vol.55, No.4, pp. 1158-1198, 2017.
  8. [8] R. De Risi and K. Goda, “Probabilistic earthquake-tsunami multi-hazard analysis: application to the Tohoku region, Japan,” Front. Built Environ., Vol.2, No.25, 2016.
  9. [9] N. Horspool, I. Pranantyo, J. Griffin, H. Latief, D. H. Natawidjaja, W. Kongko, A. Cipta, B. Bustaman, S. D. Anugrah, and H. K. Thio, “A probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment for Indonesia,” Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., Vol.14, No.11, pp. 3105-3122, 2014.
  10. [10] F. I. González, R. J. LeVeque, L. M. Adams, C. Goldfinger, G. R. Priest, and K. Wang, “Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment (PTHA) for Crescent City, CA,” University of Washington, 2014.
  11. [11] F. Løvholt, S. Glimsdal, C. B. Harbitz, N. Zamora, F. Nadim, P. Peduzzi, H. Dao, and H. Smebye, “Tsunami hazard and exposure on the global scale,” Earth-Science Reviews, Vol.110, No.1-4, pp. 58-73, doi: 10.1016/j.earscirev.2011.10.002, 2012.
  12. [12] F. Løvholt, S. Glimsdal, C. B. Harbitz, N. Horspool, H. Smebye, A. de Bono, and F. Nadim, “Global tsunami hazard and exposure due to large co-seismic slip,” Int. J. of Disaster Risk Reduction, Vol.10, Part B, pp. 406-418, doi: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2014.04.003, 2014.
  13. [13] F. Løvholt, J. Griffin, and M. A. Salgado-Gálvez, “Tsunami hazard and risk assessment on the global scale,” R. A. Meyers (Ed.), “Encyclopedia of Complexity and Systems Science,” pp. 1-34, Springer, doi: 10.1007/978-3-642-27737-5_642-1, 2015.
  14. [14] T. Otake, A. Suppasri, and F. Imamura, “Introducing new tsunami hazard index based on global tsunami hazard assessment and proposing countermeasures for each region,” J. of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. B2 (Coastal Engineering), Vol.74, No.2, pp. I_445-I_450, 2018.
  15. [15] A. Suppasri, Y. Abe, M. Yasuda, Y. Fukutani, and F. Imamura, “Tsunami signs, memorials and evacuation drills in Miyagi prefecture after the 2011 Tohoku earthquake tsunami,” M. Esteban, H. Takagi, and T. Shibayama (Eds.), “Handbook of coastal disaster mitigation for engineers and planners,” pp. 599-614, Elsevier, 2015.
  16. [16] S. Kure, Y. Jibiki, M. Quimpo, U. Nichols Manalo, Y. Ono, and A. Mano, “Evaluation of the Characteristics of Human Loss and Building Damage and Reasons for the Magnification of Damage Due to Typhoon Haiyan,” Coastal Engineering J., Vol.58, No.1, pp. 1640008-1-1640008-27, 2016.
  17. [17] M. Yasuda, T. Muramoto, and R. Nouchi, “Assessment of Educational Methods for Improving Children’s Awareness of Tsunamis and Other Natural Disasters: Focusing on Changes in Awareness and Regional Characteristics in Japan,” Geosciences, Vol.8, No.2, p. 47, 2018.
  18. [18] Pacific Tsunami Warning Center, https://ptwc.weather.gov/ [accessed August 6, 2019]
  19. [19] K. Pakoksung, A. Suppasri, F. Imamura, C. Athanasius, A. Omang, and A. Muhari, “Simulation of the Submarine Landslide Tsunami on 28 September 2018 in Palu Bay, Sulawesi Island, Indonesia, Using a Two-Layer Model,” Pure and Applied Geophysics, Vol.176, No.8, pp. 3323-3350, 2019.
  20. [20] Syamsidik, Benazir, M. Luthfi, A. Suppasri, and L. K. Comfort, “The 22 December 2018 Mount Anak Krakatau Volcanogenic Tsunami on Sunda Strait Coasts, Indonesia: tsunami and damage characteristics,” Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., Vo.20, No.2, pp. 549-565, 2020.
  21. [21] A. Suppasri, N. Shuto, F. Imamura, S. Koshimura, E. Mas, and A. C. Yalciner, “Lessons learned from the 2011 Great East Japan tsunami: Performance of tsunami countermeasures, coastal buildings, and tsunami evacuation in Japan,” Pure and Applied Geophysics, Vol.170, No.6-8, pp. 993-1018, 2013.
  22. [22] H. Ohira, K. Yamashita, A. Hayashi, and F. Imamura, “Strategic space design of multiple defense systems using coastal forests in Iwanuma city,” J. of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. B2 (Coastal Engineering), Vol.73, No.2, pp. I_397-I_402, 2017.
  23. [23] H. Yanagisawa, S. Koshimura, T. Miyagi, and F. Imamura, “Tsunami damage reduction performance of a mangrove forest in Banda Aceh, Indonesia inferred from field data and a numerical model,” J. of Geophysical Research, Vol.115, C06032, 2010.
  24. [24] K. Forbes and J. Broadhead, “The role of coastal forests in the mitigation of tsunami impacts,” Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific, 2017, http://www.fao.org/forestry/14561-09bf06569b748c827dddf4003076c480c.pdf [accessed November 10, 2019]
  25. [25] National Geographical Data Center/World Data Service, “NCEI/WDS Global Historical Tsunami Database, 2100 BC to present,” National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, doi: 10.7289/V5PN93H7 [accessed August 6, 2019]
  26. [26] F. Imamura, “Review of tsunami simulation with a finite difference method,” H. Yeh, P. Liu, and C. Synolakis (Eds.), “Long-Wave Runup Models,” World Scientific Publishing Co., Pte Ltd., pp. 25-42, 1996.
  27. [27] L. Mansinha and D. E. Smylie, “The displacement fields of inclined faults,” Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, Vol.61, No.5, pp. 1433-1440, 1971.
  28. [28] General Bathymetric Chart of the Oceans (GEBCO), “Gridded bathymetry data, GEBCO_2014 Grid – a global 30 arc-second interval grid,” https://www.gebco.net/data_and_products/gridded_bathymetry_data/gebco_30_second_grid/ [accessed September 21, 2016]
  29. [29] Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC), “Sea level station monitoring facility,” http://www.ioc-sealevelmonitoring.org/map.php [accessed September 21, 2016]
  30. [30] United States Geological Survey (USGS), “Latest Earthquake,” https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/ [accessed September 21, 2016]
  31. [31] R. Sato, “Handbook of earthquake fault parameters in Japan,” Kajima Institute Publishing Co., Ltd., p. 390, 1989.
  32. [32] B. C. Papazachos, E. M. Scordilis, D. G. Panagiotopoulos, C. B. Papazachos, and G. F. Karakaisis, “Global relations between seismic fault parameters and moment magnitude of earthquakes,” Bulletin of the Geological Society of Greece, Vol.36, No.3, pp. 1482-1489, doi: 10.12681/bgsg.16538, 2004.
  33. [33] G. P. Hayes, D. J. Wald, and R. L. Johnson, “Slab1.0: A three-dimensional model of global subduction zone geometries,” J. Geophys. Res., Vol.117, Issue B1, B01302, doi: 10.1029/2011JB008524, 2012.
  34. [34] G. Ekström, M. Nettles, and A. M. Dziewonsk, “The global CMT project 2004-2010: Centroid-moment tensors for 13,017 earthquakes,” Phys. Earth Planet. Inter., Vol.200-201, pp. 1-9, doi: 10.1016/j.pepi.2012.04.002, 2012.
  35. [35] A. M. Dziewonski, T. A. Chou, and J. H. Woodhouse, “Determination of earthquake source parameters from waveform data for studies of global and regional seismicity,” J. Geophys. Res., Vol.86, Issue B4, pp. 2825-2852, doi: 10.1029/JB086iB04p02825, 1981.
  36. [36] H. Kameda and H. Takagi, “Seismic hazard estimation based on non-Poison earthquake occurrences,” Memoirs of the Faculty of Engineering, Kyoto University, Vol.43, Part 3, pp. 397-433, 1981.
  37. [37] B. Gutenberg and C. F. Richter, “Magnitude and Energy of Earthquakes,” Annali di Geofisica, Vol.9, No.1, pp. 1-15, 1956.
  38. [38] Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART), “DART Rail Station Location Maps,” https://www.dart.org/maps/railstationlocationmaps.asp [accessed September 21, 2016]
  39. [39] T.-C. Ho, K. Satake, and S. Watada, “Improved Phase Corrections for Transoceanic Tsunami Data in Spatial and Temporal Source Estimation: Application to the 2011 Tohoku Earthquake,” J. of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, Vol.122, No.12, pp. 10155-10175, doi: 10.1002/2017JB015070, 2017.
  40. [40] A. R. Gusman, Y. Tanioka, S. Sakai, and H. Tsushima, “Source model of the great 2011 Tohoku earthquake estimated from tsunami waveforms and crustal deformation data,” Earth and Planetary Science Letters, Vol.341-344, pp. 234-242, doi: 10.1016/j.epsl.2012.06.006, 2012.
  41. [41] I. Aida, “Reliability of a tsunami source model derived from fault parameters,” J. Phys. Earth, Vol.26, No.1, pp. 57-73, 1978.
  42. [42] Japan Society of Civil Engineers (JSCE), “Tsunami assessment method for nuclear power plants in Japan 2016,” http://committees.jsce.or.jp/ceofnp/system/files/NPP_TNMT_2016_main_20170814.pdf (in Japanese) [accessed November 10, 2019]
  43. [43] A. Suppasri, N. Leelawat, P. Latcharote, V. Roeber, K. Yamashita, A. Hayashi, H. Ohira, K. Fukui, A. Hisamatsu, D. Nguyen, and F. Imamura, “The 2016 Fukushima Earthquake and Tsunami: Local tsunami behavior and recommendations for tsunami disaster risk reduction,” Int. J. of Disaster Risk Reduction, Vol.21, pp. 323-330, 2017.
  44. [44] A. Suppasri, N. Hasegawa, F. Makinoshima, F. Imamura, P. Latcharote, and S. Day, “An analysis of fatality ratios and the factors that affected human fatalities in the 2011 Great East Japan tsunami,” Frontiers in Built Environment, Vol.2, No.32, 2016.
  45. [45] P. Latcharote, N. Leelawat, A. Suppasri, P. Thamarux, and F. Imamura, “Estimation of fatality ratios and investigation of influential factors in the 2011 Great East Japan Tsunami,” Int. J. of Disaster Risk Reduction, Vol.29, pp. 37-54, 2018.
  46. [46] C. Jonientz-Trisler, R. S. Simmons, B. S. Yanagi, G. L. Crawford, M. Darienzo, R. K. Eisner, and G. R. Priest, “Planning for tsunami-resilient communities,” E. N. Bernard (Ed.), “Developing Tsunami-Resilient Communities,” pp. 121-139, Springer, 2005.
  47. [47] E. Bernard and V. Titov, “Evolution of tsunami warning systems and products,” Philosophical Trans. of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, Vol.373, No.2053, 2015.
  48. [48] S. Aoi, W. Suzuki, N. Yamamoto Chikasada, T. Miyoshi, T. Arikawa, and K. Seki, “Development and Utilization of Real-Time Tsunami Inundation Forecast System Using S-net Data,” J. Disaster Res., Vol.14, No.2, pp. 212-224, 2019.
  49. [49] Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), “Tsunami Warning/Advisory and Tsunami Information,” http://www.data.jma.go.jp/svd/eqev/data/en/guide/tsunamiinfo.html [accessed September 21, 2016]
  50. [50] United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), “Strengthening School Preparedness for tsunamis in Asia and the Pacific,” https://www.asia-pacific.undp.org/content/rbap/en/home/programmes-and-initiatives/SchoolTsunamiPreparedness.html [accessed August 6, 2019]
  51. [51] G. Davies, “Tsunami variability from uncalibrated stochastic earthquake models: tests against deep ocean observations 2006–2016,” Geophysical J. Int., Vol.218, No.3, pp. 1939-1960, 2019.

*This site is desgined based on HTML5 and CSS3 for modern browsers, e.g. Chrome, Firefox, Safari, Edge, IE9,10,11, Opera.

Last updated on Jul. 04, 2020