JDR Vol.15 No.3 pp. 324-334
doi: 10.20965/jdr.2020.p0324

Survey Report:

Projecting the Impact of Climate Change on Temperature, Precipitation, and Discharge in the Bago River Basin

Hnin Thiri Myo*,†, Win Win Zin*, Kyi Pyar Shwe*, Zin Mar Lar Tin San*, Akiyuki Kawasaki**, and Ralph Allen Acierto***

*Department of Civil Engineering, Yangon Technological University
Gyogone, Insein Road, Yangon 11011, Myanmar

Corresponding author

**Department of Civil Engineering, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan

***Institute of Industrial Science, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan

July 31, 2019
February 27, 2020
March 30, 2020
precipitation, temperature, scenarios, Bago River basin, discharge

Climate change affects both the temperature and precipitation, leading to changes in river runoff. The Bago River basin is one of the most important agricultural regions in the Ayeyarwady Delta of Myanmar, and this paper aims to evaluate the impact of climate change on it. Linear scaling was used as the bias-correction method for ten general circulation models (GCMs) participating in the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Future climate scenarios are predicted for three 27-year periods: the near future (2020–2046), middle future (2047–2073), and far future (2074–2100) with a baseline period of (1981–2005) under two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios: RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 of the IPCC Assessment Report 5 (AR5). The Hydrologic Engineering Center-Hydrologic Modeling System model is used to predict future discharge changes for the Bago River considering future average precipitation for all three future periods. Among the GCMs used to simulate meteorological data in the Ayeyarwady Delta zone, the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate-Earth System is the most suitable. It predicts that average monthly precipitation will fluctuate and that average annual precipitation will increase. Both average monthly and annual temperatures are expected to increase at the end of the 21st century under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The simulation shows that the Bago River discharge will increase for all three future periods under both scenarios.

Cite this article as:
H. Myo, W. Zin, K. Shwe, Z. San, A. Kawasaki, and R. Acierto, “Projecting the Impact of Climate Change on Temperature, Precipitation, and Discharge in the Bago River Basin,” J. Disaster Res., Vol.15 No.3, pp. 324-334, 2020.
Data files:
  1. [1] K. D. Frederick and D. C. Major, “Climatic change and the water resources,” Climate Change, Vol.37, No.1, pp. 7-23, 1997.
  2. [2] United Nations Development Programme, Myanmar, “Multi Hazard Risk Assessment in Myanmar Delta (Ayeyarwady, Bago, Yangon),” Hazard Risk and Vulnerability Assessment Report, 2010.
  3. [3] A. Y. Htut, “Assessment of Climate Change and Land Use Change Impacts on the Hydrology and Water Resources of the Bago River Basin in Myanmar,” Ph.D. Thesis, Asian Institute of Technology, 2015.
  4. [4] D. T. Duong, Y. Tachikawa, and K. Yorozu, “Changes in river discharge in the Indochina Peninsula Region projected using MRI-AGCM and MIROC5 datasets,” J. of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. B1 (Hydraulic Engineering), Vol.70, No.4, pp. I_115-I_120, 2014.
  5. [5] W. F. van Driel and T. A. Nauta, “Vulnerability and Resilience Assessment of the Ayeyarwady Delta, Myanmar,” Bay of Bengal Large Marine Ecosystem (BOBLME) Project, Global Water Partnership (GWP) and Delta Alliance, 2013.
  6. [6] M. Shrestha, S. Shrestha, and A. Datta, “Impact of climate change on the hydrology of upper Bago River basin, Myanmar,” Int. Symp. on Environmental Flow and Water Resources Management, 2014.
  7. [7] S. S. Bhagabati, “Development of a near-real time flood inundation analysis system for a deltaic flat river basin in a data-scarce region; Case of the Bago River basin, Myanmar,” Department of Civil Engineering, School of Engineering, The University of Tokyo, Japan, 2018.
  8. [8] European Space Agency (ESA), “Glob Cover 2009 Land Cover Map,” 2009, [accessed March 23, 2018]
  9. [9] Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations, “Digital Soil Map of the World (DSMW) Version 3.6,” Land and Water Development Division, FAO, 2003, [accessed March 1, 2017]
  10. [10] M. Khaing, “Multi-model analysis of the climate change impact and adaptation of hydropower generation in the Myitnge river basin,” M.E. Thesis, Asian Institute of Technology, 2014.
  11. [11] M. T. Aung, “Assessment of climate change impacts on hydrology and hydropower generation in Belu River basin of Myanmar,” Ph.D. Thesis, Asian Institute of Technology, 2016.
  12. [12] R. Alkama, L. Marchand, A. Ribes, and B. Decharme, “Detection of global runoff changes: results from observations and CMIP5 experiments,” Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, Vol.17, No.7, pp. 2967-2979, 2013.
  13. [13] C. Santhi, J. G. Arnold, J. R. Williams, W. A. Dugas, R. Srinivasan, and L. M. Hauck, “Validation of the SWAT Model on a Large River Basin with Point and Nonpoint Source,” J. of the Ameriacn Water Resource Association, Vol.37, No.5, pp. 1169-1188, 2001.
  14. [14] T. W. Chu, A. Shirmohammadi, H. Montas, and A. Sadeghi, “Evaluation of the SWAT Model’s sediment and nutrient components in the Piedmont Physiographic Region of Maryland,” American Society of Agricultural and Biological Engineers, Vol.47, No.5, pp. 1523-1538, 2004.
  15. [15] J. E. Nash and J. V. Sutcliffe, “River flow forecasting through Conceptual Models Part 1 – A Discussion of Principles,” J. of Hydrology, Vol.10, No.3, pp. 282-290, 1970.
  16. [16] G. Lenderink, A. Buishand, and W. van Deursen, “Estimates of future discharges of the river Rhine using two scenario methodologies: direct versus delta approach,” Hydrology Earth System Science, Vol.11, No.3, pp. 1145-1159, 2007.
  17. [17] T. F. Stocker, D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S. K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex, and P. M. Midgley. “Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the 5th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,” Cambridge University Press, 2013.
  18. [18] G. P. Wayne, “The Beginner’s Guide to Representative Concentration Pathways,” Skeptical Science, 2013.
  19. [19] Hydrologic Engineering Center (HEC), “HEC-RAS reference manual version 4.1,” 2013, [accessed February 1, 2016]

*This site is desgined based on HTML5 and CSS3 for modern browsers, e.g. Chrome, Firefox, Safari, Edge, Opera.

Last updated on May. 19, 2024