JDR Vol.15 No.3 pp. 324-334
doi: 10.20965/jdr.2020.p0324

Survey Report:

Projecting the Impact of Climate Change on Temperature, Precipitation, and Discharge in the Bago River Basin

Hnin Thiri Myo*,†, Win Win Zin*, Kyi Pyar Shwe*, Zin Mar Lar Tin San*, Akiyuki Kawasaki**, and Ralph Allen Acierto***

*Department of Civil Engineering, Yangon Technological University
Gyogone, Insein Road, Yangon 11011, Myanmar

Corresponding author

**Department of Civil Engineering, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan

***Institute of Industrial Science, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan

July 31, 2019
February 27, 2020
March 30, 2020
precipitation, temperature, scenarios, Bago River basin, discharge

Climate change affects both the temperature and precipitation, leading to changes in river runoff. The Bago River basin is one of the most important agricultural regions in the Ayeyarwady Delta of Myanmar, and this paper aims to evaluate the impact of climate change on it. Linear scaling was used as the bias-correction method for ten general circulation models (GCMs) participating in the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Future climate scenarios are predicted for three 27-year periods: the near future (2020–2046), middle future (2047–2073), and far future (2074–2100) with a baseline period of (1981–2005) under two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios: RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 of the IPCC Assessment Report 5 (AR5). The Hydrologic Engineering Center-Hydrologic Modeling System model is used to predict future discharge changes for the Bago River considering future average precipitation for all three future periods. Among the GCMs used to simulate meteorological data in the Ayeyarwady Delta zone, the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate-Earth System is the most suitable. It predicts that average monthly precipitation will fluctuate and that average annual precipitation will increase. Both average monthly and annual temperatures are expected to increase at the end of the 21st century under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The simulation shows that the Bago River discharge will increase for all three future periods under both scenarios.

Cite this article as:
H. Myo, W. Zin, K. Shwe, Z. San, A. Kawasaki, and R. Acierto, “Projecting the Impact of Climate Change on Temperature, Precipitation, and Discharge in the Bago River Basin,” J. Disaster Res., Vol.15, No.3, pp. 324-334, 2020.
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Last updated on Jul. 02, 2020