Development of Flood Damage Estimation Model for Agriculture – Case Study in the Bago Floodplain, Myanmar
Shelly Win*,, Win Win Zin*, and Akiyuki Kawasaki**
*Department of Civil Engineering, Yangon Technological University
Gyogone, Insein Road, Yangon 11011, Myanmar
**Department of Civil Engineering, School of Engineering, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan
This paper introduces an integrated model that combines the Rainfall Runoff Inundation (RRI) and spatially distributed flood damage estimation models. There are three steps for fulfilling this purpose. The first step is the accomplishment of RRI model for the floodplain region. The second step is a questionnaire survey to analyze the economic damage to affected population and properties caused by the past flooding events; this step aims to estimate the different levels of agricultural damage cost. Finally, the economic flood damage estimation model was developed for the agricultural areas by using the stage-damage function models which were established by the multiple regression analysis of questionnaire survey data. The model results were expressed through spatially distributed flood damage maps for extreme flood events, such as those in 2014, 2015, and 2018. The results were validated by collecting damage cost data from the Department of Agricultural Lands Management and Statistics (DALMS). The final findings included comparative scenarios for reducing damage cost in the most effective and realistic way. The output product was the agricultural damage estimation model. For further research, the model was recommended for application in other study areas with different flood scales.
-  Y. Tahira and A. Kawasaki, “The Impact of the Thai Flood of 2011 on the Rural Poor Population Living on the Flood Plain,” J. Disaster Res., Vol.12, No.1, pp. 147-157, doi: 10.20965/jdr.2017.p0147, 2017.
-  E. A. McBean et al., “Flood depth – damage curves by interview survey,” J. of Water Resources Planning and Management, Vol.114, Issue 6, pp. 613-634, 1988.
-  B. Merz et al., “Assessment of economic flood damage,” Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., Vol.10, pp. 1697-1724, doi: 10.5194/nhess-10-1697-2010, 2010.
-  T. Okazumi et al., “Uncertainty Estimation During the Process of Flood Risk Assessment in Developing Countries – Case Study in the Pampanga River Basin –,” J. Disaster Res., Vol.9, No.1, pp. 69-77, doi: 10.20965/jdr.2014.p0069, 2014.
-  D. Dutta, S. Herath, and K. Musiake, “A mathematical model for flood loss estimation,” J. of Hydrology, Vol.277, pp. 24-49, doi: 10.1016/S0022-1694(03)00084-2, 2003.
-  A. Sugiura, S. Tanaka, T. Okazumi, Y. Kwak, S. Hibino, and B. B. Shrestha, “Calculation of floods house damages in the Mekong River Basin in Cambodia,” Proc. of the 6th Int. Perspective on Water Resources and the Environment, 2013.
-  Department of Social Welfare and Development (DSWD), Region-III, “Flood damage assessment report,” 2011.
-  T. Sayama, G. Ozawa, T. Kawakami, S. Nabesaka, and K. Fukami, “Rainfall-Runoff-Inundation analysis of the 2010 Pakistan flood in the Kabul River basin,” Hydrological Science J., Vol.57, No.2, pp. 298-312, 2012.
-  “World Risk Report 2016,” Bündnis Entwiklung Hilft and UNU-EHS, 2016.
-  A. Kawasaki, A. Yamamoto, P. Koudelova, R. Acierto, T. Nemoto, M. Kitsuregawa, and T. Koike, “Data Integration and Analysis System (DIAS) Contributing to Climate Change Analysis and Disaster Risk Reduction,” Data Science J., doi: org/10.5334/dsj-2017-042, 2017.
-  K. T. Hlaing, S. Haruyama, and M. M. Aye, “Using GIS-based Distributed Soil Loss Modeling and Morphometric Analysis to Prioritize Watershed for Soil Conservation in Bago River Basin for Lower Myanmar,” Front. Earth Sci. China, Vol.2, pp. 465-478, doi: 10.1007/s11707-008-0048-3, 2008.
-  A. Y. Htut, S. Shrestha, V. Nitivattananon, and A. Kawasaki, “Forecasting Climate Change Scenarios in the Bago River Basin, Myanmar,” J. Earth Sci. & Clim. Change, Vol.5, No.9, doi: 10.4172/2157-7617.1000228, 2014.
-  A. Kawasaki, N. Ichihara, Y. Ochii, R. A. Acierto, A. Kodaka, and W. W. Zin, “Disaster Response and River Infrastructure Management during the 2015 Myanmar Floods: A Case in the Bago River Basin,” Int. J. of Disaster Risk Reduction, Vol.24, pp. 151-159, doi: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2017.06.004, 2017.
-  W. W. Zin, A. Kawasaki, and S. Win, “River Flood Inundation Mapping in the Bago River Basin, Myanmar,” Hydrological Research Letters, Vol.9, No.4, pp. 97-102, doi: 10.3178/hrl.9.97, 2015.
-  T. N. Zaw and S. Lim, “The military’s role in disaster management and response during the 2015 Myanmar floods: A social network approach,” Int. J. of Disaster Risk Reduction, Vol.25, doi: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2017.06.023, 2017.
-  Government of the Union of Myanmar, “Post-disaster needs assessment of floods and landslides: July-September 2015,” 2015.
-  “Hazus-MH – Technical Manual: Flood Model,” Department of Home Land Security, Federal Emergency Management Agency, 2013.
-  C. van Westen, “Multi-hazard risk assessment: Distance education course Guide book,” United Nation University – ITC School on Disaster Geoinformation Management (UNU-ITC DGIM), 2009.
-  G. Zhai, T. Fukuzono, and S. Ikeda, “Modeling Flood Damage: Case of Tokai Flood 2000,” J. of the American Water Resources Association, Vol.41, pp. 77-92, doi: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2005.tb03719.x, 2005.
-  B. B. Shrestha, T. Okazumi, M. Miyamoto, and H. SawaNo, “Flood damage assessment in the Pampanga river basin of the Philippines,” J. of Flood Risk Management, Vol.9, pp. 355-369, doi: 10:1111/jfr3.12174, 2016.
-  Bureau of Agricultural Statistics (BAS), Department of Agriculture, Philippines, “Manual on damage assessment and reporting system,” 2013.
-  Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism, “Manual for Economic Analysis for Flood Control Projects,” 2005.
-  Tin Myint Aung, “Flood inundation analysis for effective countermeasures in the Bago River Basin,” International Centre for Water Hazard and Risk Management (ICHARM) Master Paper, No.67, 2013.
-  Bago Region Government, Myanmar, “Bago Region, Agriculture, Livestock, and Irrigation in Brief 2016,” 2016.
-  T. Sayama, Y. Tatebe, and S. Tanaka, “An emergency response-type rainfall-runoff-inundation simulation for 2011 Thailand floods,” J. of Flood Risk Management, Vol.10, pp. 65-78, doi: 10.1111/jfr3.12147, 2015.
-  T. Sayama, Y. Tatebe, Y. Iwami, and S. Tanaka, “Hydrologic sensitivity of flood runoff and inundation: 2011 Thailand floods in the Chao Phraya River basin,” Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., Vol.15, pp. 1617-1630, doi: 10.5194/nhess-15-1617-2015, 2015.
-  T. Sayama, “Rainfall-Runoff-Inundation (RRI) Model – ver. 1.4.2, User Manual,” Disaster Prevention Research Institute (DPRI), Kyoto University, 2017.
-  S. S. Bhagabati, “Development of a near-real time flood inundation analysis system for a deltaic flat river basin in a data-scarce region: Case of the Bago River basin, Myanmar,” Department of Civil Engineering, School of Engineering, The University of Tokyo, 2018.
-  S. Win, “Flood Hazard Mapping and Economic Damage Assessment in the Bago River,” Department of Civil Engineering, Yangon Technological University, Myanmar, 2018.
-  S. Win, A. Kawasaki, and W. W. Zin, “Flood Damage Assessment for flood prone agricultural areas in the Bago River Basin,” 8th Int. Conf. on Science and Engineering, 2018.
-  T. Kobayashi et al., “Production of Global Land Cover Data – GLCNMO2013,” J. of Geography and Geology, Vol.9, No.3, pp. 1-15, doi: 10.5539/jgg.v9n3p1, 2017.
-  “Land cover (GLCNMO) – Global Version 3,” 2013, https://globalmaps.github.io/glcnmo.html [accessed November 30, 2017]
-  S. Win, W. W. Zin, A. Kawasaki, and Z. M. L. T. San, “Establishment of flood damage function models: A case study in the Bago River Basin, Myanmar,” Int. J. of Disaster Risk Reduction, Vol.28, pp. 688-700, doi: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2018.01.030, 2018.
-  H. Tian, M. Wu, L. Wang, and Z. Niu, “Mapping Early, Middle and Late Rice Extent Using Sentinel-1A and Landsat-8 Data in the Poyang Lake Plain, China,” Sensors, Vol.18, doi: 10.3390/s18010185, 2018.
-  D. B. Nguyen, A. Gruber, and W. Wagner, “Mapping rice extent and cropping scheme in the Mekong Delta using Sentinel-1A data,” Remote Sens. Lett., Vol.7, pp. 1209-1218, doi: 10.1080/2150704X.2016.1225172, 2016.
-  Regional Land Cover Map, SERVIR-Mekong project, Regional Land Cover Monitoring System, 2016, https://rlcms-servir.adpc.net/en/landcover/ [accessed January 15, 2018]
-  S. S. Bhagabati and A. Kawasaki, “Consideration of the rainfall-runoff-inundation (RRI) model for flood mapping in a deltaic area of Myanmar,” Hydrological Research Letters, Vol.11, No.3, pp. 155-160, doi: 10.3178/hrl.11.155, 2017.
-  Department of Agricultural Lands Management and Statistics (DALMS), “Agricultural Damage Records,” Bago District, 2018.