Review:

# Evaluation of Phenomena Preceding Earthquakes and Earthquake Predictability

## Masao Nakatani^{†}

Earthquake Research Institute, The University of Tokyo

1-1-1 Yayoi, Bunkyo, Tokyo 113-0032, Japan

^{†}Corresponding author

Unusual phenomena sometimes precede a large earthquake and are considered by some as a telltale sign of that earthquake. Judging whether the phenomenon was indeed related to the earthquake is difficult for individual cases. However, the accumulation of data over time allows for statistical evaluation to determine whether there is a correlation between the occurrence of a certain type of phenomena prior to an earthquake. The focus of this study is to review such statistical evaluation. The aspects considered in this study include seismicity, crustal deformation, slow slip, crustal fluids, crustal properties, electromagnetic phenomena, and animal behaviors. The lead times range from minutes to a few decades. The magnitude of the earthquake-preceding tendency can be universally measured by the probability gain *G*, which is the enhancement ratio of earthquake probability suggested by the occurrence of the phenomenon. A preceding tendency is considered to exist if *G* is > 1 with reasonable statistical significance. Short-term foreshock activity, that is, temporarily heightened seismicity, produces by far the highest *G* > 100, sometimes exceeding 10000. While this strongly contributes to empirical forecasting, a considerable part of the predictive power of foreshocks is likely to derive from the mere aftershock triggering mechanism. This enhances the probability of small and large earthquakes by the same factor. It is fundamentally different from traditional expectations that foreshock activity signifies the underlying nucleation process of the forthcoming (large) earthquake. Earthquake-preceding tendency has also been proven significant for a number of other phenomena not ascribable to the aftershock-triggering effect. Some phenomena may be indicators of physical conditions favorable for large earthquakes, while some (e.g., slow slip) may represent triggering effects other than aftershock triggering. Phenomena not ascribable to aftershock triggering have a modest *G* of < 20 so far. However, these phenomena, including higher-order features of foreshocks, can be combined with the high *G* from aftershock-triggering effect, sometimes yielding a fairly scaring level of forecast. For example, say ∼10% chance of an M7 earthquake in a week in a few hundred km radius.

*J. Disaster Res.*, Vol.15, No.2, pp. 112-143, 2020.

- [1] Y. Ogata, “Statistics of earthquake activity: Models and methods for earthquake predictability studies,” Annu. Rev. Earth Planet. Sci., Vol.45, pp. 497-527, 2017.
- [2] C. H. Scholz, L. R. Sykes, and Y. P. Aggarwal, “Earthquake prediction: A physical basis,” Science, Vol.181, pp. 803-810, 1973.
- [3] B. Shibazaki and M. Matsu’ura, “Transition process from nucleation to high-speed rupture propagation: Scaling from stick-slip experiments to natural earthquakes,” Geophys. J. Int., Vol.132, pp. 14-30, 1998.
- [4] T. H. Jordan, Y.-T. Chen, P. Gasparini, R. Madariaga, I. Main, W. Marzocchi, G. Papadopoulos, G. Sobolev, K. Yamaoka, and J. Zschau, “Operational earthquake forecasting: State of knowledge and guidelines for utilization,” Ann. Geophys., Vol.54, No.4, pp. 315-391, 2011.
- [5] M. A. Meier, T. Heaton, and J. Clinton, “Evidence for universal earthquake rupture initiation behavior,” Geophys. Res. Lett., Vol.43, No.15, pp. 7991-7996, 2016.
- [6] S. Yoshida and N. Kato, “Dependence of preslip on eventual earthquake size,” Zisin (J. Seismol. Soc. Japan. 2nd ser.), Vol.58, pp. 231-246, 2005 (in Japanese with English abstract).
- [7] K. Aki, “A probabilistic synthesis of precursory phenomena,” P. D. Simpson and P. G. Richards (Eds.), “Earthquake Prediction: An International Review,” Maurice Ewing Series Volume 4, American Geophysical Union, pp. 566-574, 1981.
- [8] M. Nakatani, “Yo, what of earthquakes? – A metatheory of short-term precursors,” Parity, Vol.34, No.2, pp. 84-88, 2019 (in Japanese).
- [9] K. Tsumura, “An analogy for the causalities between earthquake occurrence and precursory phenomena,” Earthq. J., Vol.67, pp. 52-53, 2019 (in Japanese).
- [10] K. Tsumura, “On earthquake prediction,” Yamagata Ouyou Chisitsu (Applied Geol. Yamagata), Vol.16, pp. 1-6, 1996 (in Japanese).
- [11] M. Page, K. Felzer, and A. Michael, “Foreshocks are not predictive of future earthquake size (but nevertheless contain quite a bit of predictive power),” Presentation slides at the Int. Symp. on Earthquake Forecast/5th Int. Workshop on Earthquake Preparation Process, –Observation, Validation, Modeling, Forecasting–, 2018, http://www.emsev-iugg.org/ISEF-IWEP5/pdf/ISEF-IWEP2019Page_foreshock.pdf [accessed February 10, 2020]
- [12] A. Helmstetter, D. Sornette, and J.-R. Grasso, “Mainshocks are aftershocks of conditional foreshocks: How do foreshock statistical properties emerge from aftershock laws,” J. Geophys. Res. Solid Earth, Vol.108, Issue B1, Article No.2046, 2003.
- [13] E. A. Roeloffs, “Evidence for aseismic deformation rate changes prior to earthquakes,” Annu. Rev. Earth Planet. Sci., Vol.34, pp. 591-627, 2006.
- [14] C. H. Scholz, “The Mechanics of Earthquakes and Faulting,” Second edition, Cambridge University Press, 2002.
- [15] K. Obara and A. Kato, “Connecting slow earthquakes to huge earthquakes,” Science, Vol.353, No.6296, pp. 253-257, 2016.
- [16] H. Baba, K. Hirata, A. Yamazaki, H. Tsushima, A. Katsumata, K. Maeda, H. Ueno, S. Aoki, A. Kobayashi, K. Kimura, F. Hirose, and T. Nagao, “The continuous earthquake observation in and around the Senoumi Bank in the Suruga Bay using pop-up type ocean bottom seismographs (OBSs),” Bull Inst. Ocean. Res. Dev. Tokai Univ., Vol.36, pp. 23-39, 2015 (in Japanese with English abstract).
- [17] T. Iwata, “Decomposition of seasonality and long-term trend in seismological data: A Bayesian modelling of earthquake detection capability,” Aust. New Zeal. J. Stat., Vol.56, No.3, pp. 201-215, 2014.
- [18] S. Hirano, Y. Toyomoto, H. Kawakata, and I. Doi, “Application of extreme value theory to a matched-filter analysis,” Proc. of the 10th APEC Cooperation for Earthquake Science (ACES) Int. Workshop, Article No.P24, 2018.
- [19] H. Akaike, “A new look at the statistical model identification,” IEEE Trans. Automat. Contr., Vol.19, No.6, pp. 716-723, 1974.
- [20] M. Naoi, M. Nakatani, T. Igarashi, K. Otsuki, Y. Yabe, T. Kgarume, O. Murakami, T. Masakale, L. Ribeiro, A. Ward, H. Moriya, H. Kawakata, S. Nakao, R. Durrheim, and H. Ogasawara, “Unexpectedly frequent occurrence of very small repeating earthquakes (-5.1≤ Mw ≤-3.6) in a South African gold mine: Implications for monitoring intraplate faults,” J. Geophys. Res. Solid Earth, Vol.120, pp. 8478-8493, 2015.
- [21] R. M. Nadeau and L. R. Johnson, “Seismological studies at Parkfield VI: Moment release rates and estimates of source parameters for small repeating earthquakes,” Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., Vol.88, No.3, pp. 790-814, 1998.
- [22] J. Zhuang, T. Wang, and K. Kiyosugi, “Detection and replenishment of missing data in marked point processes,” Stat. Sin., (in press).
- [23] J. Zhuang, Y. Ogata, and T. Wang, “Data completeness of the Kumamoto earthquake sequence in the JMA catalog and its influence on the estimation of the ETAS parameters,” Earth, Planets Sp., Vol.69, Article No.36, 2017.
- [24] Y. Ogata, “Statistical model for standard seismicity and detection of anomalies by residual analysis,” Tectonophysics, Vol.169, pp. 159-174, 1989.
- [25] Y. Ogata, “Increased probability of large earthquakes near aftershock regions with relative quiescence,” J. Geophys. Res. Solid Earth, Vol.106, No.B5, pp. 8729-8744, 2001.
- [26] T. Utsu, Y. Ogata, and R. S. Matsu’ura, “The centenary of the Omori formula for a decay law of aftershock activity,” J. Phys. Earth, Vol.43, pp. 1-33, 1995.
- [27] R. Gutenberg and C. R. Richter, “Frequency of earthquakes in California,” Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., Vol.34, pp. 185-188, 1944.
- [28] K. Z. Nanjo and A. Yoshida, “Anomalous decrease in relatively large shocks and increase in the p and b values preceding the April 16, 2016, M7.3 earthquake in Kumamoto, Japan,” Earth, Planets Sp., Vol.69, Article No.13, 2017.
- [29] A. Kato, J. Fukuda, S. Nakagawa, and K. Obara, “Foreshock migration preceding the 2016 Mw 7.0 Kumamoto earthquake, Japan,” Geophys. Res. Lett., Vol.43, No.17, pp. 8945-8953, 2016.
- [30] T. Omi, Y. Ogata, K. Shiomi, B. Enescu, K. Sawazaki, and K. Aihara, “Automatic aftershock forecasting: A test using real-time seismicity data in Japan,” Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., Vol.106, No.6, pp. 2450-2458, 2016.
- [31] T. Omi, K. Aihara, Y. Ogata, K. Shiomi, K. Sawazaki, and B. Enescu, “Implementation of a real-time system for automatic aftershock forecasting in Japan,” Seismol. Res. Lett., Vol.90, No.1, pp. 242-250, 2019.
- [32] H. Tsuruoka and Y. Ogata, “Development of seismicity snalysis software: TSEIS–ETAS module implementation,” Abstracts of the 9th Int. Workshop on Statistical Seismology (StatSei9), p. 39, 2015.
- [33] N. Hirata, “CSEP-Japan earthquake predictability experiment and testing results,” Abstracts of the 10th Int. Workshop on Statistical Seismology (StatSei10), p. 16, 2017.
- [34] N. Hirata, H. Tsuruoka, and D. Schorlemmer, “Five-year Japanese earthquake predictability experiment with multiple runs since 2009 including the 2011 Tohoku-oki earthquake,” Abstracts of the 9th Int. Workshop on Statistical Seismology (StatSei9), p. 35, 2015.
- [35] J. Zhuang, “Weighted likelihood estimators for point processes,” Spat. Stat., Vol.14, pp. 166-178, 2015.
- [36] Y. Guo, J. Zhuang, and N. Hirata, “Modelling and forecasting three-dimensional-hypocentre seismicity in the Kanto region,” Geophys. J. Int., Vol.214, No.1, pp. 520-530, 2018.
- [37] Y. Guo, J. Zhuang, and S. Zhou, “An improved space-time ETAS model for inverting the rupture geometry from seismicity triggering,” J. Geophys. Res. Solid Earth, Vol.120, No.5, pp. 3309-3323, 2015.
- [38] Y. Guo, J. Zhuang, N. Hirata, and S. Zhou, “Heterogeneity of direct aftershock productivity of the main shock rupture,” J. Geophys. Res. Solid Earth, Vol.122, No.7, pp. 5288-5305, 2017.
- [39] J. Zhuang, M. Murru, G. Falcone, and Y. Guo, “An extensive study of clustering features of seismicity in Italy from 2005 to 2016,” Geophys. J. Int., Vol.216, pp. 302-318, 2018.
- [40] D. Vere-Jones, “Earthquake prediction – A statistician’s view,” J. Phys. Earth, Vol.26, No.2, pp. 129-146, 1978.
- [41] Y. Wang, T. Wang, and J. Zhuang, “Modeling continuous time series with many zeros and an application to earthquakes,” Environmetrics, Vol.29, Article No.e2500, 2018.
- [42] T. Nishikawa and S. Ide, “Background seismicity rate at subduction zones linked to slab-bending-related hydration,” Geophys. Res. Lett., Vol.42, No.17, pp. 7081-7089, 2015.
- [43] T. Nishikawa and S. Ide, “Detection of earthquake swarms at subduction zones globally: Insights into tectonic controls on swarm activity,” J. Geophys. Res. Solid Earth, Vol.122, No.7, pp. 5325-5343, 2017.
- [44] T. Wang, J. Zhuang, J. Buckby, K. Obara, and H. Tsuruoka, “Identifying the recurrence patterns of nonvolcanic tremors using a 2-D hidden Markov model with extra zeros,” J. Geophys. Res. Solid Earth, Vol.123, No.8, pp. 6802-6825, 2018.
- [45] S. Annoura, T. Hashimoto, N. Kamaya, and A. Katsumata, “Shallow episodic tremor near the Nankai trough axis off southeast Mie prefecture, Japan,” Geophys. Res. Lett., Vol.44, No.8, pp. 3564-3571, 2017.
- [46] T. Ishibe, H. Tsuruoka, K. Satake, and M. Nakatani, “A focal mechanism solution catalog of earthquakes (M ≥2.0) in and around the Japanese Islands for 1985-1998,” Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., Vol.104, No.2, pp. 1031-1036, 2014.
- [47] T. Iwata, “A Bayesian approach to estimating a spatial stress pattern from P wave first-motions,” J. Geophys. Res. Solid Earth, Vol.123, No.6, pp. 4841-4858, 2018.
- [48] A. Kobayashi, “Studies for sophisticating the monitoring of seismic activity and crustal deformation,” Annu. Rep. MEXT’s Earthq. Volcano Hazards Obs. Res. Progr., Vol.FY2018H30, Subject No.7006, pp. 797-803, 2019, http://www.eri.u-tokyo.ac.jp/YOTIKYO/OpenReport/H30/h30_Kikanbetsu.pdf (in Japanese) [accessed February 6, 2020]
- [49] A. Kobayashi, “Studies for sophisticating the monitoring of seismic activity and crustal deformation,” Annu. Rep. MEXT’s Earthq. Volcano Hazards Obs. Res. Progr., Vol.FY2014H26, Subject No.7006, pp. 582-585, 2015, http://www.eri.u-tokyo.ac.jp/YOTIKYO/OpenReport/H26/h26_Kikanbetsu.pdf (in Japanese) [accessed February 6, 2020]
- [50] A. Kobayashi, “Studies for sophisticating the monitoring of seismic activity and crustal deformation,” Annu. Rep. MEXT’s Earthq. Volcano Hazards Obs. Res. Progr., Vol.FY2015H27, Subject No.7006, pp. 686-689, 2016, http://www.eri.u-tokyo.ac.jp/YOTIKYO/OpenReport/H27/h27_Kikanbetsu.pdf (in Japanese) [accessed February 6, 2020]
- [51] Y. Umeda and S. Itaba, “Estimation of time series of the vertical deformations using the sea level changes at the 1944 Tonankai and the 1946 Nankai earthquakes on the coastal area of Kii peninsula,” Bull. Geol. Surv. Japan, Vol.69, No.2, pp. 81-89, 2018 (in Japanese with English abstract).
- [52] A. Kobayashi, “Objective detection of long-term slow slip events along the Nankai Trough using GNSS data (1996–2016),” Earth, Planets Sp., Vol.69, Article No.171, 2017.
- [53] K. Miyaoka and H. Kimura, “Detection of long-term slow slip event by strainmeters using the stacking method,” Q. J. Seismol., Vol.79, pp. 15-23, 2016 (in Japanese with English abstract).
- [54] N. Matsumoto, “Studies for improving the earthquake forecasting accuracy by using observation networks of groundwater and crustal deformation,” Annu. Rep. MEXT’s Earthq. Volcano Hazards Obs. Res. Progr., Vol.FY2018H30, Subject No.5007, pp. 726-729, 2019, http://www.eri.u-tokyo.ac.jp/YOTIKYO/OpenReport/H30/h30_Kikanbetsu.pdf (in Japanese) [accessed February 6, 2020]
- [55] T. Araki, T. Ochi, N. Matsumoto, and S. Akaho, “Simultaneous estimation of the spatio-temporal slip distribution and duration of the slow slip event by a switching model,” J. Signal Process., Vol.21, No.6, pp. 297-308, 2017.
- [56] S. Itaba, “Rapid estimation of the moment magnitude of the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake (Mw 9.0) from static strain changes,” Earth, Planets Sp., Vol.70, Article No.124, 2018.
- [57] N. Koizumi, “Coseismic and postseismic groundwater pressure changes,” J. Geogr. (Chigaku Zasshi), Vol.122, No.1, pp. 159-169, 2013 (in Japanese with English abstract).
- [58] F. Hirose and I. Nakanishi, “Seismic ground motion, tsunami damage, and change of groundwater level in the southernmost of Ehime prefecture (Ainan-town) caused by the 1854 Ansei Nankai earthquake: Usefulness of document written by a village headman and potential for estimation of crustal deformation,” Zisin (J. Seismol. Soc. Japan. 2nd ser.), Vol.68, No.4, pp. 107-124, 2015 (in Japanese with English abstract).
- [59] N. Koizumi and C. Kinoshita, “Water level changes at Dogo Hot Springs accompanying the Iyo-nada Earthquake (M6.2) on March 14, 2014,” Rep. Tono Res. Inst. Earthq. Sci., Vol.34, pp. 45-52, 2015 (in Japanese).
- [60] M. Higa, M. Nakamura, N. Koizumi, and W.-C. Lai, “Relation between the strong ground motion and coseismic well water level rises during the 1999 Chi-Chi, Taiwan, earthquake in the alluvial fan near the hypocentral region,” Bull. Geol. Surv. Japan, Vol.67, No.1, pp. 1-10, 2016 (in Japanese with English abstract).
- [61] N. Koizumi, “Earthquake prediction research based on observation of groundwater –Earthquake forecasting based on crustal deformation estimated from groundwater level change–,” Synthesiology, Vol.6, No.1, pp. 24-33, 2013 (in Japanese with English abstract).
- [62] Y. Kitagawa and N. Matsumoto, “Improvement of the response of groundwater level to crustal strain by the sealing of a well – In the case of the Hokusei well,” Abstracts of the Seismological Society of Japan Fall meeting 2016, Article No.S13-01, 2016 (in Japanese).
- [63] N. Matsumoto and N. Shigematsu, “In-situ permeability of fault zones estimated by hydraulic tests and continuous groundwater-pressure observations,” Earth, Planets Sp., Vol.70, Article No.13, 2018.
- [64] C. A. Wibberley and T. Shimamoto, “Internal structure and permeability of major strike-slip fault zones: The Median Tectonic Line in Mie prefecture, southwest Japan,” J. Struct. Geol., Vol.25, pp. 59-78, 2003.
- [65] C. Kinoshita and D. M. Saffer, “In situ permeability and scale dependence of an active accretionary prism determined from cross-borehole experiments,” Geophys. Res. Lett., Vol.45, No.14, pp. 6935-6943, 2018.
- [66] H. Wakita, Y. Nakamura, K. Notsu, M. Noguchi, and T. Asada, “Radon anomaly: A possible precursor of the 1978 Izu-Oshima-kinkai earthquake,” Science, Vol.207, No.4433, pp. 882-883, 1980.
- [67] F. Tsunomori and H. Tanaka, “Anomalous change of groundwater radon concentration monitored at Nakaizu well in 2011,” Radiat. Meas., Vol.60, pp. 35-41, 2014.
- [68] U. Tsunogai and H. Wakita, “Precursory chemical changes in ground water: Kobe earthquake, Japan,” Science, Vol.269, No.5220, pp. 61-63, 1995.
- [69] G. Igarashi, S. Saeki, N. Takahata, K. Sumikawa, S. Tasaka, Y. Sasaki, M. Takahashi, and Y. Sano, “Ground-water radon anomaly before the Kobe earthquake in Japan,” Science, Vol.269, No.5220, pp. 60-61, 1995.
- [70] Y. Yasuoka, G. Igarashi, T. Ishikawa, S. Tokonami, and M. Shinogi, “Evidence of precursor phenomena in the Kobe earthquake obtained from atmospheric radon concentration,” Appl. Geochemistry, Vol.21, No.6, pp. 1064-1072, 2006.
- [71] H. Nagahama, “Observation of earthquake-preceding changes in the atmospheric radon concentration,” Annu. Rep. MEXT’s Earthq. Volcano Hazards Obs. Res. Progr., Vol.FY2018H30, Subject No.1207, pp. 141-146, 2019, http://www.eri.u-tokyo.ac.jp/YOTIKYO/OpenReport/H30/h30_Kikanbetsu.pdf (in Japanese) [accessed February 6, 2020]
- [72] Y. Yasuoka, H. Nagahama, J. Muto, and T. Mukai, “Anomalous change in the atmospheric radon concentration prior to the 2011 Tohoku-Oki Earthquake in Japan,” Radiat. Environ. Med., Vol.7, No.2, pp. 86-94, 2018.
- [73] A. Tanaka, N. Minami, Y. Yasuoka, T. Iimoto, Y. Omori, H. Nagahama, J. Muto, and T. Mukai, “Accurate measurement of indoor radon concentration using a low-effective volume radon monitor,” Radiat. Prot. Dosimetry, Vol.177, No.3, pp. 324-330, 2017.
- [74] M. Ishihara, M. Yoshii, N. Minami, Y. Yasuoka, S. Tokonami, H. Nagahama, and T. Mukai, “Airborne radon concentration measurements using gas-flow ionization chambers and the effects of temperature changes,” Proc. of the 19th Workshop on Environmental Radioactivity, pp. 288-293, 2018.
- [75] S. Higuchi, Y. Kamishiro, M. Ishihara, Y. Yasuoka, Y. Mori, M. Hosoda, K. Iwaoka, S. Tokonami, R. Takahashi, M. Janik, J. Muto, H. Nagahama, and T. Mukai, “Evaluation of a radon air monitor in the measurement of radon concentration in water in comparison with a liquid scintillation counter,” Radiat. Prot. Dosimetry, Vol.184, No.3-4, pp. 426-429, 2019.
- [76] A. Wakabayashi, Y. Yasuoka, M. Janik, H. Nagahama, N. Fukuhori, Y. Mori, Y. Arai, S. Fujii, and T. Mukai, “Derivation and validity evaluation of calibration factors for activated-charcoal radon collectors,” Radioisotopes, Vol.68, pp. 317-329, 2019.
- [77] Y. Omori and H. Nagahama, “Radon as an indicator of nocturnal atmospheric stability: A simplified theoretical approach,” Boundary-Layer Meteorol., Vol.158, pp. 351-359, 2016.
- [78] K. Hayashi, Y. Yasuoka, H. Nagahama, J. Muto, T. Ishikawa, Y. Omori, T. Suzuki, Y. Homma, and T. Mukai, “Normal seasonal variations for atmospheric radon concentration: A sinusoidal model,” J. Environ. Radioact., Vol.139, pp. 149-153, 2015.
- [79] Y. Kobayashi, Y. Yasuoka, Y. Omori, H. Nagahama, T. Sanada, J. Muto, T. Suzuki, Y. Homma, H. Ihara, K. Kubota, and T. Mukai, “Annual variation in the atmospheric radon concentration in Japan,” J. Environ. Radioact., Vol.146, pp. 110-118, 2015.
- [80] D. Iwata, H. Nagahama, J. Muto, and Y. Yasuoka, “Non-parametric detection of atmospheric radon concentration anomalies related to earthquakes,” Sci. Rep., Vol.8, Article No.13028, 2018.
- [81] T. Idé and K. Inoue, “Knowledge discovery from heterogeneous dynamic dystems using change-point correlations,” Proc. of the 2005 SIAM Int. Conf. on Data Mining, pp. 571-575, 2005.
- [82] T. Asada, H. Baba, M. Kawazoe, and M. Sugiura, “An attempt to delineate very low frequency electromagnetic signals associated with earthquakes,” Earth, Planets Sp., Vol.53, pp. 55-62, 2001.
- [83] T. Nagao, M. Kamogawa, J. Izutsu, H. Baba, Y. Narushima, N. Takamura, T. Sakurada, and H. Uehara, “First report of the electromagnetic wave detection system in VLF range, Tokai University –Proven for the existence of preseismic phenomena–,” Bull Inst. Ocean. Res. Dev. Tokai Univ., Vol.37, pp. 29-36, 2016 (in Japanese with English abstract).
- [84] T. Moriya, T. Mogi, and M. Takada, “Anomalous pre-seismic transmission of VHF-band radio waves resulting from large earthquakes, and its statistical relationship to magnitude of impending earthquakes,” Geophys. J. Int., Vol.180, No.2, pp. 858-870, 2010.
- [85] K. Motojima and N. Haga, “Stochastic relation between anomalous propagation in the line-of-sight VHF radio band and occurrences of earthquakes,” Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., Vol.14, No.8, pp. 2119-2124, 2014.
- [86] K. Motojima and Y. Ogura, “Statistical consideration of relationship between occurrences of earthquake and fluctuations in the radio wave propagation,” Abstract of the 4th Int. Workshop on Earthquake Preparation Process 2017, p. 37, 2017.
- [87] K. Tanigawa, K. Motojima, and N. Haga, “Statistical relation among earthquakes, average wind speed on the earth’s surface, and anomalous propagation of broadcasting waves in the line-of-sight VHF band,” J. Atmos. Electr., Vol.37, No.1, pp. 11-24, 2017 (in Japanese with English abstract).
- [88] K. Motojima, Y. Shiono, and Y. Ogura, “Detection of anomalous VHF radio wave propagation associated with earthquake by artificial intelligence,” Abstract of the Int. Symp. on Earthquake Forecast/5th Int. Workshop on Earthquake Preparation Process, –Observation, Validation, Modeling, Forecasting–, Article No.P3-09, 2018.
- [89] F. Němec, O. Santolík, M. Parrot, and J. J. Berthelier, “Spacecraft observations of electromagnetic perturbations connected with seismic activity,” Geophys. Res. Lett., Vol.35, Article No.L05109, 2008.
- [90] M. Kamogawa, M. Yamazaki, K. Heki, T. Nagao, H. Yagihashi, and T. Kodama, “Earthquake prediction using CubeSats and a global ground station network,” Finalists’ presentaton at S-Booster 2018, 2018, https://s-booster.jp/en/index_2018.html (in Japanese with English abstract) [accessed February 10, 2020]
- [91] T. Kodama, “Earthquake frontier research of the new century: Establishment of earthquake-preceding phenomena by ground-satelites joint observation,” Parity, Vol.33, No.5, pp. 46-48, 2018 (in Japanese).
- [92] H. Kikuchi, M. Yamazaki, M. Kamogawa, and Y. Miyazaki, “R&D of automatic operation system for PRELUDE-SAT observing the preceding earthquake phenomenon,” Proc. of 62nd Space Sciences and Technology Conf., Article No.JSASS-2018-4852698, 2018 (in Japanese with English abstract).
- [93] M. Kamogawa, R. Kanai, T. Kodama, A. Smith, and S. Guillas, “Evaluation of the pre-seismic DEMETER’s VLF intensity decrease identified by the functional principal component analysis,” The 3rd Int. Workshop of China Seismo-Electromagnetic Satellite Mission, 2018.
- [94] A. Yoshimura, “Sanriku offshore great tsunami,” Bungeishunju Ltd., 2004 (in Japanese).
- [95] Y. Orihara and T. Nagao, “Scientific approach to earthquake precursors,” Shodensha Publishing Co., Ltd., 2015 (in Japanese).
- [96] T. Kunitomo, K. Yamaoka, T. Watanabe, Y. Yoshida, A. Katsumata, R. Ikuta, A. Kato, T. Iidaka, N. Tsumura, and M. Okubo, “Vp and Vs structures in the crust of Tokai region, central Japan, estimated by seismic ACROSS signals,” Zisin (J. Seismol. Soc. Japan. 2nd ser.), Vol.67, No.1, pp. 1-24, 2014 (in Japanese with English abstract).
- [97] N. Kame, K. Nagata, M. Nakatani, and T. Kusakabe, “Feasibility of acoustic monitoring of strength drop precursory to earthquake occurrence,” Earth, Planets Sp., Vol.66, Article No.44, 2014.
- [98] K. Nagata, M. Nakatani, and S. Yoshida, “Monitoring frictional strength with acoustic wave transmission,” Geophys. Res. Lett., Vol.35, Article No.L06310, 2008.
- [99] T. Utsu, “Probability in earthquake prediction,” Zisin (J. Seismol. Soc. Japan), Vol.30, pp. 179-185, 1977 (in Japanese with English abstract).
- [100] T. Utsu, “Probabilities in earthquake prediction (the second paper),” Bull. Earthq. Res. Inst. University Tokyo, Vol.57, pp. 499-524, 1982 (in Japanese with English abstract).
- [101] M. Nakatani, “Short-term precursors, why do I care?,” Presentation slides at the Int. Symp. on Earthquake Forecast/5th Int. Workshop on Earthquake Preparation Process, –Observation, Validation, Modeling, Forecasting–, 2018, http://www.emsev-iugg.org/ISEF-IWEP5/pdf/ISEF-IWEP2019nakataniOpeningRemark.pdf [accessed February 10, 2020]
- [102] M. Nakatani, “Statistical evaluation of precursory phenomena – A review,” Proc. of the 17th Japan-Taiwan Int. Workshop on Hydrological and Geochemical Research for Earthquake Prediction, Vol.17, pp. 19-23, 2018.
- [103] J. D. Zechar and T. H. Jordan, “Testing alarm-based earthquake predictions,” Geophys. J. Int., Vol.172, No.2, pp. 715-724, 2008.
- [104] T. Nagao, “Observation of electromagnetic earthquake-preceding phenomena and comparison with other preceding phenomena,” Annu. Rep. MEXT’s Earthq. Volcano Hazards Obs. Res. Progr., Vol.FY2015H27, Subject No.2501, pp. 466-479, 2016, http://www.eri.u-tokyo.ac.jp/YOTIKYO/OpenReport/H27/h27_Kikanbetsu.pdf (in Japanese) [accessed February 6, 2020]
- [105] D. Schorlemmer, N. Hirata, Y. Ishigaki, K. Doi, K. Z. Nanjo, H. Tsuruoka, T. Beutin, and F. Euchner, “Earthquake detection probabilities in Japan,” Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., Vol.108, No.2, pp. 702-717, 2018.
- [106] D. Schorlemmer, M. J. Werner, W. Marzocchi, T. H. Jordan, Y. Ogata, D. D. Jackson, S. Mak, D. A. Rhoades, M. C. Gerstenberger, N. Hirata, M. Liukis, P. J. Maechling, A. Strader, M. Taroni, S. Wiemer, J. D. Zechar, and J. Zhuang, “The collaboratory for the study of earthquake predictability: Achievements and priorities,” Seismol. Res. Lett., Vol.89, No.4, pp. 1305-1313, 2018.
- [107] H. Tsuruoka, “CSEP-Japan results of 1-day testing class and development of Kanto 3D earthquake foreast model,” SCEC Annual Meeting 2017, 2017.
- [108] H. Tsuruoka, “CSEP Japan results of 3-month and 1-year testing class,” SCEC Annual Meeting 2017, 2017.
- [109] H. Tsuruoka and N. Hirata, “Systematic testing of seismicity-based forecast methods,” Annu. Rep. MEXT’s Earthq. Volcano Hazards Obs. Res. Progr., Vol.FY2018H30, Subject No.1511, pp. 264-266, 2019, http://www.eri.u-tokyo.ac.jp/YOTIKYO/OpenReport/H30/h30_Kikanbetsu.pdf (in Japanese) [accessed February 6, 2020]
- [110] Earthquake Research Institute of the University of Tokyo, “Earthquake predictability experiment based on CSEP project –Trial of forecast experiments in Japan–,” Rep. Coord. Comm. Earthq. Predict. Japan, Vol.101, pp. 498-504, 2019 (in Japanese).
- [111] H. Tsuruoka and N. Hirata, “Systematic testing of seismicity-based forecast methods,” Annu. Rep. MEXT’s Earthq. Volcano Hazards Obs. Res. Progr., Vol.FY2016H28, Subject No.1511, pp. 244-247, 2017, http://www.eri.u-tokyo.ac.jp/YOTIKYO/OpenReport/H28/h28_Kikanbetsu.pdf (in Japanese) [accessed February 6, 2020]
- [112] J. Zhuang and Y. Ogata, “Evaluation methods of earthquake forecasts,” Proc. Inst. Stat. Math., Vol.63, No.1, pp. 29-44, 2015 (in Japanese with English abstract).
- [113] J. D. Zechar and J. Zhuang, “A parimutuel gambling perspective to compare probabilistic seismicity forecasts,” Geophys. J. Int., Vol.199, No.1, pp. 60-68, 2014.
- [114] L. M. Jones and P. Molnar, “Some characteristics of foreshocks and their possible relationship to earthquake prediction and premonitory slip on faults,” J. Geophys. Res. Solid Earth, Vol.84, No.B7, pp. 3596-3608, 1979.
- [115] M. Ohnaka, “Earthquake source nucleation: A physical model for short-term precursors,” Tectonophysics, Vol.211, pp. 149-178, 1992.
- [116] D. A. Dodge, G. C. Beroza, and W. L. Ellsworth, “Detailed observations of California foreshock sequences: Implications for the earthquake initiation process,” J. Geophys. Res. Solid Earth, Vol.101, No.B10, pp. 22371-22392, 1996.
- [117] M. Nakatani, “Empirical approaches for forecasting the probability of large earthquake occurrence – Review of performance,” Rep. Coord. Comm. Earthq. Predict. Japan, Vol.99, pp. 465-469, 2018 (in Japanese).
- [118] Y. Yabe, M. Nakatani, M. Naoi, J. Philipp, C. Janssen, T. Watanabe, T. Katsura, H. Kawakata, D. Georg, and H. Ogasawara, “Nucleation process of an M2 earthquake in a deep gold mine in South Africa inferred from on-fault foreshock activity,” J. Geophys. Res. Solid Earth, Vol.120, No.8, pp. 5574-5594, 2015.
- [119] K. Imanishi and T. Uchide, “Non-self-similar source property for microforeshocks of the 2014 Mw 6.2 Northern Nagano, central Japan, earthquake,” Geophys. Res. Lett., Vol.44, No.11, pp. 5401-5410, 2017.
- [120] K. Shimojo, B. Enescu, Y. Yagi, and T. Takeda, “Fluid-driven seismicity activation in northern Nagano region after the 2011 M9.0 Tohoku-oki earthquake,” Geophys. Res. Lett., Vol.41, No.21, pp. 7524-7531, 2014.
- [121] M. Bouchon, H. Karabulut, M. Aktar, S. Ozalaybey, J. Schmittbuhl, and M.-P. Bouin, “Extended nucleation of the 1999 Mw 7.6 Izmit earthquake,” Science, Vol.331, No.6019, pp. 877-880, 2011.
- [122] I. Doi and H. Kawakata, “A non-accelerating foreshock sequence followed by a short period of quiescence for a large inland earthquake,” Geophys. Res. Lett., Vol.39, Article No.L11308, 2012.
- [123] I. Doi and H. Kawakata, “Spatio-temporal occurrence patterns among the foreshocks preceding the 2007 Noto Hanto earthquake,” Earth, Planets Sp., Vol.65, No.9, pp. 1053-1058, 2013.
- [124] Y. Toyomoto, H. Kawakata, S. Hirano, and I. Doi, “Foreshock search over a long duration using a method of setting appropriate criteria,” Abstracts of AGU Fall Meeting 2016, Article No.MR41B-2702, 2016.
- [125] S. Hirano, Y. Toyomoto, H. Kawakata, and I. Doi, “Objective matched-filter analysis for detecting small events,” Abstracts of the Int. Symp. on Earthquake Forecast/5th Int. Workshop on Earthquake Preparation Process, –Observation, Validation, Modeling, Forecasting–, Article No.P1-04, 2018.
- [126] Y. Ogata, “Forecasting of a large earthquake: An outlook of the research,” Seismol. Res. Lett., Vol.88, No.4, pp. 1117-1126, 2017.
- [127] Earthquake Research Committee, “Long term evaluation of active faults in Kyushu area,” First edition, 2015, https://www.jishin.go.jp/main/chousa/13feb_chi_kyushu/ekyushu_point.pdf (in Japanese) [accessed February 10, 2020]
- [128] Y. Ogata and K. Katsura, “Prospective foreshock forecast experiment during the last 17 years,” Geophys. J. Int., Vol.191, pp. 1237-1244, 2012.
- [129] K. Maeda, “The use of foreshocks in probabilistic prediction along the Japan and Kuril trenches,” Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., Vol.86, pp. 242-254, 1996.
- [130] K. Maeda and F. Hirose, “Earthquake forecasting method by supposing swarm-like activity to be possible foreshocks: Its performance for recent seismicity data,” Rep. Coord. Comm. Earthq. Predict. Japan, Vol.98, pp. 465-469, 2017 (in Japanese).
- [131] T. Nishikawa and S. Ide, “Recurring slow slip events and earthquake nucleation in the source region of the M 7 Ibaraki-Oki earthquakes revealed by earthquake swarm and foreshock activity,” J. Geophys. Res. Solid Earth, Vol.123, No.9, pp. 7950-7968, 2018.
- [132] S. Matsumura, “Discrimination of a preparatory stage leading to M7 characteristic earthquakes off Ibaraki prefecture, Japan,” J. Geophys. Res. Solid Earth, Vol.115, Article No.B01301, 2010.
- [133] K. Tamaribuchi, Y. Yagi, B. Enescu, and S. Hirano, “Characteristics of foreshock activity inferred from the JMA earthquake catalog,” Earth, Planets Sp., Vol.70, Article No.90, 2018.
- [134] I. Zaliapin and Y. Ben-Zion, “Earthquake clusters in southern California I: Identification and stability,” J. Geophys. Res. Solid Earth, Vol.118, No.6, pp. 2847-2864, 2013.
- [135] M. Sugan, A. Kato, H. Miyake, S. Nakagawa, and A. Vuan, “The preparatory phase of the 2009 Mw 6.3 L’Aquila earthquake by improving the detection capability of low-magnitude foreshocks,” Geophys. Res. Lett., Vol.41, No.17, pp. 6137-6144, 2014.
- [136] A. Vuan, M. Sugan, G. Amati, and A. Kato, “Improving the detection of low-magnitude seismicity preceding the Mw 6.3 L’Aquila earthquake: Development of a scalable code based on the cross correlation of template earthquakes,” Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., Vol.108, No.1, pp. 471-480, 2018.
- [137] J. Izutsu and T. Nagao, “b-value mapping and time series analysis for earthquake prediction,” Bull Inst. Ocean. Res. Dev. Tokai Univ., Vol.37, pp. 21-28, 2016.
- [138] K. Z. Nanjo, N. Hirata, K. Obara, and K. Kasahara, “Decade-scale decrease in b value prior to the M9-class 2011 Tohoku and 2004 Sumatra quakes,” Geophys. Res. Lett., Vol.39, Article No.L20304, 2012.
- [139] K. Z. Nanjo, “A global model to forecast large earthquakes based on b value,” Rep. Coord. Comm. Earthq. Predict. Japan, Vol.99, pp. 459-462, 2018 (in Japanese).
- [140] F. Hirose and K. Maeda, “Deviation from G-R law before great earthquakes and recommendation for earthquake forecast models based on that feature,” Zisin (J. Seismol. Soc. Japan. 2nd ser.), Vol.70, pp. 21-40, 2017 (in Japanese with English abstract).
- [141] S. M. Burroughs and S. F. Tebbens, “The upper-truncated power law applied to earthquake cumulative frequency-magnitude distributions: Evidence for a time-independent scaling parameter,” Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., Vol.92, No.8, pp. 2983-2993, 2002.
- [142] T. Utsu, “Representation and analysis of the earthquake size distribution: A historical review and some new approaches,” Pure Appl. Geophys., Vol.155, No.2-4, pp. 509-535, 1999.
- [143] K. Katsumata, “A long-term seismic quiescence started 23 years before the 2011 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku earthquake (M = 9.0),” Earth, Planets Sp., Vol.63, No.7, pp. 709-712, 2011.
- [144] K. Katsumata, “A long-term seismic quiescence before the 2004 Sumatra (Mw 9.1) earthquake,” Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., Vol.105, No.1, pp. 167-176, 2015.
- [145] K. Katsumata, “Long-term seismic quiescences and great earthquakes in and around the Japan subduction zone between 1975 and 2012,” Pure Appl. Geophys., Vol.174, No.6, pp. 2427-2442, 2017.
- [146] K. Katsumata and M. Nakatani, “Long-term earthquake forecast based on the seismic quiescence: Trials in the Kurile, the Tohoku, and the Izu-Bonin subduction zones,” Abstracts of the JpGU Meeting 2018, Article No.SSS13-04, 2018 (in Japanese).
- [147] K. Katsumata and M. Nakatani, “Trial of long-term erthquake forecast based on the seismic quiescence: Learning and evaluation,” Abstracts of the Seismological Society of Japan Fall Meeting 2018, Article No.S23-01, 2018 (in Japanese).
- [148] K. Katsumata, “Long-term seismic quiescence before shallow great earthquakes with Mw8.0 or larger between 1990 and 2014,” Abstracts of the JpGU-AGU Joint Meeting 2017, Article No.SSS14-P06, 2017.
- [149] K. Z. Nanjo, J. Izutsu, Y. Orihara, N. Furuse, S. Togo, H. Nitta, T. Okada, R. Tanaka, M. Kamogawa, and T. Nagao, “Seismicity prior to the 2016 Kumamoto earthquakes,” Earth, Planets Sp., Vol.68, Article No.187, 2016.
- [150] S. Wiemer and M. Wyss, “Seismic quiescence before the Landers (M = 7.5) and Big Bear (M = 6.5) 1992 earthquakes,” Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., Vol.84, No.3, pp. 900-916, 1994.
- [151] T. Nagao, A. Takeuchi, and K. Nakamura, “A new algorithm for the detection of seismic quiescence: Introduction of the RTM algorithm, a modified RTL algorithm,” Earth, Planets Sp., Vol.63, pp. 315-324, 2011.
- [152] S. Yoshikawa, “An evaluation of earthquake predictability based on analysis of seismic quiescence,” Rep. Coord. Comm. Earthq. Predict. Japan, Vol.93, pp. 410-414, 2015 (in Japanese).
- [153] N. Hayashimoto and T. Aketagawa, “Efforts for quantitative evaluation of seismic quiescence and activation, part II,” Q. J. Seismol., Vol.73, pp. 185-194, 2010 (in Japanese).
- [154] K. Mogi, “Some features of recent seismic activity in and near Japan (2): Activity before and after great earthquakes,” Bull. Earthq. Res. Inst. Univresity Tokyo, Vol.47, No.3, pp. 395-147, 1969.
- [155] H. Tsuruoka, M. Ohtake, and H. Sato, “Statistical test of the tidal triggering of earthquakes: Contribution of the ocean tide loading effect,” Geophys. J. Int., Vol.122, No.1, pp. 183-194, 1995.
- [156] H. Tsuruoka, “Effects of earth tide on the earthquake occurrence and an interpretation,” Doctoral thesis, Tohoku University, 1995 (in Japanese).
- [157] S. Tanaka, M. Ohtake, and H. Sato, “Evidence for tidal triggering of earthquakes as revealed from statistical analysis of global data,” J. Geophys. Res. Solid Earth, Vol.107, Issue B10, Article No.2001JB001577, 2002.
- [158] S. Tanaka, “Tidal triggering of earthquakes prior to the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake (Mw 9.1),” Geophys. Res. Lett., Vol.39, Article No.L00G26, 2012.
- [159] X. C. Yin, L. P. Zhang, H. H. Zhang, C. Yin, Y. Wang, Y. Zhang, K. Peng, H. Wang, Z. Song, H. Yu, and J. Zhuang, “LURR’s twenty years and its perspective,” Pure Appl. Geophys., Vol.163, No.11-12, pp. 2317-2341, 2006.
- [160] T. Iwata, “Earthquake forecasting based on the correlation between earth tides and earthquake occurrences,” Proc. Inst. Stat. Math., Vol.63, No.1, pp. 129-144, 2015.
- [161] S. Ide, S. Yabe, and Y. Tanaka, “Earthquake potential revealed by tidal influence on earthquake size-frequency statistics,” Nat. Geosci., Vol.9, No.11, pp. 834-837, 2016.
- [162] F. Hirose, O. Kamigaichi, and Maeda, “Relation between interplate earthquakes and earth tides (Part2),” The 8th Meeting of CSEP-Japan, 2017 (in Japanese).
- [163] B. Enescu, K. Shimojo, A. Opris, and Y. Yagi, “Remote triggering of seismicity at Japanese volcanoes following the 2016 M7.3 Kumamoto earthquake,” Earth, Planets Sp., Vol.68, Article No.165, 2016.
- [164] A. Opris, B. Enescu, Y. Yagi, and J. Zhuang, “Triggering and decay characteristics of dynamically activated seismicity in southwest Japan,” Geophys. J. Int., Vol.212, No.2, pp. 1010-1021, 2018.
- [165] P. Varotsos, N. V. Sarlis, and E. S. Skordas, “Natural Time Analysis: The New View of Time,” Springer, 2011.
- [166] N. V. Sarlis, E. S. Skordas, P. A. Varotsos, T. Nagao, M. Kamogawa, H. Tanaka, and S. Uyeda, “Minimum of the order parameter fluctuations of seismicity before major earthquakes in Japan,” Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A., Vol.110, No.34, pp. 13734-13738, 2013.
- [167] N. V. Sarlis, E. S. Skordas, P. A. Varotsos, T. Nagao, M. Kamogawa, and S. Uyeda, “Spatiotemporal variations of seismicity before major earthquakes in the Japanese area and their relation with the epicentral locations,” Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A., Vol.112, No.4, pp. 986-989, 2015.
- [168] A. Kato, “Episodic interplate loosening and the occurrecne of large earthquakes,” Parity, Vol.33, No.6, pp. 48-51, 2018 (in Japanese).
- [169] A. Kato, “The evolution of fault slip rate prior to earthquake: The role of slow and fast slip modes,” A. Bizzarri, S. Das, and A. Petri (Eds.), “Mechanics of Earthquake Faulting: Proc. of the International School of Physics ‘Enrico Fermi’,” Vol.202, pp. 53-80, IOS Press, 2019.
- [170] A. Kato, J. Fukuda, T. Kumazawa, and S. Nakagawa, “Accelerated nucleation of the 2014 Iquique, Chile Mw 8.2 earthquake,” Sci. Rep., Vol.6, Article No.24792, 2016.
- [171] A. Kato and K. Obara, “Step-like migration of early aftershocks following the 2007 Mw 6.7 Noto-Hanto earthquake, Japan,” Geophys. Res. Lett., Vol.41, No.11, pp. 3864-3869, 2014.
- [172] S. Toda, “Spatio-temporal patterns of seismicity and their relation with the seismic cycle,” Annu. Rep. MEXT’s Earthq. Volcano Hazards Obs. Res. Progr., Vol.FY2017H29, Subject No.1206, pp. 112-120, 2018, http://www.eri.u-tokyo.ac.jp/YOTIKYO/OpenReport/H29/h29_Kikanbetsu.pdf (in Japanese) [accessed February 6, 2020]
- [173] A. Kato and T. Ueda, “Source fault model of the 2018 Mw 5.6 northern Osaka earthquake, Japan, inferred from the aftershock sequence,” Earth, Planets Sp., Vol.71, Article No.11, 2019.
- [174] A. Kobayashi and F. Hirose, “Aseismic slips synchronized with earthquakes in northern Chiba prefecture, central Japan,” Zisin (J. Seismol. Soc. Japan. 2nd ser.), Vol.69, pp. 1-9, 2016 (in Japanese with English abstract).
- [175] N. Uchida, T. Iinuma, R. M. Nadeau, R. Burgmann, and R. Hino, “Periodic slow slip triggers megathrust zone earthquakes in northeastern Japan,” Science, Vol.351, No.6272, pp. 488-492, 2016.
- [176] A. Kato, T. Igarashi, and K. Obara, “Detection of a hidden Boso slow slip event immediately after the 2011 Mw 9.0 Tohoku-Oki earthquake, Japan,” Geophys. Res. Lett., Vol.41, No.16, pp. 5868-5874, 2014.
- [177] A. T. Linde and I. S. Sacks, “Slow earthquakes and great earthquakes along the Nankai trough,” Earth Planet. Sci. Lett., Vol.203, pp. 265-275, 2002.
- [178] K. Mogi, “Temporal variation of crustal deformation during the days preceding a thrust-type great earthquake – The 1944 Tonankai earthquake of magnitude 8 in Japan,” Pure Appl. Geophys., Vol.122, pp. 765-780, 1985.
- [179] T. Sagiya and Y. Kawashima, “The pre-slip controversy: A review of the 1944 Tonankai and the 2011 Tohoku-oki cases and their implications (or no implication) for short-term prediction,” Presentation slides at the Int. Symp. on Earthquake Forecast/5th Int. Workshop on Earthquake Preparation Process, –Observation, Validation, Modeling, Forecasting–, 2018, http://www.emsev-iugg.org/ISEF-IWEP5/pdf/ISEF-IWEP2019Sagiya_preslip.pdf [accessed February 10, 2020]
- [180] K. Shigetomi, Y. Umeda, K. Onoue, T. Asada, Y. Hoso, and K. Tatumi, “Well water decrease and ocean tide abnormality before Nankai earthquake found out by the literature and hearing investigation,” Annu. Disaster Prev. Res. Insutitute Kyoto Univ., Vol.48, pp. 191-196, 2005 (in Japanese with English abstract).
- [181] Y. Umeda and S. Itaba, “On well water and sea level changes witnessed before the 1946 Nankai earthquake on the Pacific coast of Shikoku, Japan,” Bull. Geol. Surv. Japan, Vol.65, No.11/12, pp. 129-144, 2014 (in Japanese with English abstract).
- [182] Y. Umeda, K. Shigetomi, K. Onoue, T. Asada, Y. Hoso, K. Kondo, M. Hashimoto, S. Kimura, K. Kawatani, and M. Omura, “On the well water decreases preceded the Nankai earthquake –for the prediction of next Nankai earthquake–,” Zisin (J. Seismol. Soc. Japan. 2nd ser.), Vol.63, pp. 1-10, 2010 (in Japanese with English abstract).
- [183] A. P. Mavrommatis, P. Segall, and K. M. Johnson, “A decadal-scale deformation transient prior to the 2011 Mw 9.0 Tohoku-oki earthquake,” Geophys. Res. Lett., Vol.41, No.13, pp. 4486-4494, 2014.
- [184] A. P. Mavrommatis, P. Segall, N. Uchida, and K. M. Johnson, “Long-term acceleration of aseismic slip preceding the Mw 9 Tohoku-oki earthquake: Constraints from repeating earthquakes,” Geophys. Res. Lett., Vol.42, No.22, pp. 9717-9725, 2015.
- [185] Y. Yokota and K. Koketsu, “A very long-term transient event preceding the 2011 Tohoku earthquake,” Nat. Commun., Vol.6, Article No.5934, 2015.
- [186] T. Reverso, D. Marsan, A. Helmstetter, and B. Enescu, “Background seismicity in Boso peninsula, Japan: Long-term acceleration, and relationship with slow slip events,” Geophys. Res. Lett., Vol.43, No.11, pp. 5671-5679, 2016.
- [187] H. Noda, M. Nakatani, and T. Hori, “A slower fault may produce a smaller preseismic moment rate: Non-1/tf acceleration of moment rate during nucleation and dependency on the background slip rate,” Geophys. Res. Lett., Vol.40, No.18, pp. 4850-4854, 2013.
- [188] N. Kato, “Fracture energies at the rupture nucleation points of large interplate earthquakes,” Earth Planet. Sci. Lett., Vol.353-354, pp. 190-197, 2012.
- [189] Earthquake Research Institute of the University of Tokyo, “Change in seismicity rate around the Quaternary active faults due to the off the Pacific coast of Tohoku earthquake,” Rep. Coord. Comm. Earthq. Predict. Japan, Vol.87, pp. 97-100, 2012 (in Japanese).
- [190] S. Okada, D. Ishimura, Y. Niwa, and S. Toda, “The first surface-rupturing earthquake in 20 years on a HERP active fault is not characteristic: The 2014 Mw 6.2 Nagano event along the northern Itoigawa-Shizuoka tectonic line,” Seismol. Res. Lett., Vol.86, No.5, pp. 1287-1300, 2015.
- [191] D. Ishimura, S. Okada, Y. Niwa, and S. Toda, “The surface rupture of the 22 November 2014 Nagano-ken-hokubu earthquake (Mw 6.2), along the Kamishiro fault, Japan,” Act. Fault Res., Vol.43, pp. 95-108, 2015 (in Japanese with English abstract).
- [192] H. Tsutsumi, S. Toda, H. Goto, Y. Kumahara, D. Ishimura, N. Takahashi, K. Taniguchi, M. Omata, Y. Kohriya, M. Gomi, K. Asano, and T. Iwata, “Paleoseismic trenching across the surface rupture of the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake at Jichu, Mashiki town, Kumamoto prefecture,” Act. Fault Res., Vol.49, pp. 31-39, 2018 (in Japanese with English abstract).
- [193] S. Toda and D. Ishimura, “Surface earthquake faults triggered in large, inland earthquakes such as the Kumamoto earthquake and their implications on the evaluation of short active faults,” Quat. Res., Vol.58, No.2, pp. 121-136, 2019 (in Japanese with English abstract).
- [194] D. Ishimura, S. Toda, S. Mukoyama, S. Homma, K. Yamaguchi, and N. Takahashi, “3D surface displacement and surface ruptures associated with the 2014 Mw 6.2 Nagano earthquake using differential lidar,” Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., Vol.109, No.2, pp. 780-796, 2019.
- [195] S. Toda, “Effects of 2018 Osaka-fu Hokubu earthquake on the neighbouring active faults and seismicity,” Earthq. J., Vol.66, pp. 9-21, 2018 (in Japanese).
- [196] M. Tanaka, M. Okada, and N. Uchida, “Performance and validation of long-term predictability for repeating earthquake groups with a few recurrences,” Zisin (J. Seismol. Soc. Japan. 2nd ser.), Vol.70, pp. 195-213, 2017 (in Japanese with English abstract).
- [197] H. Nagahama, “Observation of earthquake-preceding changes in the atmospheric radon concentration,” Annu. Rep. MEXT’s Earthq. Volcano Hazards Obs. Res. Progr., Vol.FY2014H26, Subject No.1207, pp. 90-105, 2015, http://www.eri.u-tokyo.ac.jp/YOTIKYO/OpenReport/H26/h26_Kikanbetsu.pdf (in Japanese) [accessed February 6, 2020]
- [198] H. Nagahama, “Observation of earthquake-preceding changes in the atmospheric radon concentration,” Annu. Rep. MEXT’s Earthq. Volcano Hazards Obs. Res. Progr., Vol.FY2015H27, Subject No.1207, pp. 99-106, 2016, http://www.eri.u-tokyo.ac.jp/YOTIKYO/OpenReport/H27/h27_Kikanbetsu.pdf (in Japanese) [accessed February 6, 2020]
- [199] H. Nagahama, “Observation of earthquake-preceding changes in the atmospheric radon concentration,” Annu. Rep. MEXT’s Earthq. Volcano Hazards Obs. Res. Progr., Vol.FY2016H28, Subject No.1207, pp. 124-132, 2017, http://www.eri.u-tokyo.ac.jp/YOTIKYO/OpenReport/H28/h28_Kikanbetsu.pdf (in Japanese) [accessed February 6, 2020]
- [200] H. Nagahama, “Observation of earthquake-preceding changes in the atmospheric radon concentration,” Annu. Rep. MEXT’s Earthq. Volcano Hazards Obs. Res. Progr., Vol.FY2017H29, Subject No.1207, pp. 121-125, 2018, http://www.eri.u-tokyo.ac.jp/YOTIKYO/OpenReport/H29/h29_Kikanbetsu.pdf (in Japanese) [accessed February 6, 2020]
- [201] D. J. Berndt and J. Clifford, “Using dynamic time warping to find patterns in time series,” KDD Workshop, Vol.10, pp. 359-370, 1994.
- [202] T. Nagao, Y. Orihara, and M. Kamogawa, “Precursory phenomena possibly related to the 2011 M9.0 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku earthquake,” J. Disaster Res., Vol.9, No.3, pp. 303-310, 2014.
- [203] Y. Orihara, M. Kamogawa, and T. Nagao, “Preseismic changes of the level and temperature of confined groundwater related to the 2011 Tohoku Earthquake,” Sci. Rep., Vol.4, Article No.6907, 2014.
- [204] Y. Orihara, “Investigation of earthquake-preceding phenomena using instrumental data owned by entities other than public research organizations,” Annu. Rep. MEXT’s Earthq. Volcano Hazards Obs. Res. Progr., Vol.FY2016H28, Subject No.2930, pp. 520-522, 2017, http://www.eri.u-tokyo.ac.jp/YOTIKYO/OpenReport/H28/h28_Kikanbetsu.pdf (in Japanese) [accessed February 6, 2020]
- [205] Y. Orihara and M. Kamogawa, “Survey of well water anomaly around Sanriku region in Japan preceding the 2011 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku earthquake,” Zisin (J. Seismol. Soc. Japan. 2nd ser.), Vol.69, pp. 31-34, 2016 (in Japanese with English abstract).
- [206] Y. Orihara, M. Kamogawa, and T. Nagao, “Study of groundwater level change preceding the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake using the published data by Kumamoto City,” Abstracts of the Seismological Society of Japan Fall meeting 2016, Article No.S14-11, 2016 (in Japanese).
- [207] P. Han, K. Hattori, J. Zhuang, C. H. Chen, J. Y. Liu, and S. Yoshida, “Evaluation of ULF seismo-magnetic phenomena in Kakioka, Japan by using Molchan’s error diagram,” Geophys. J. Int., Vol.208, No.1, pp. 482-490, 2017.
- [208] T. Nagao, “Observation of electromagnetic earthquake-preceding phenomena and comparison with other preceding phenomena,” Annu. Rep. MEXT’s Earthq. Volcano Hazards Obs. Res. Progr., Vol.FY2018H30, Subject No.2501, pp. 539-549, 2019, http://www.eri.u-tokyo.ac.jp/YOTIKYO/OpenReport/H30/h30_Kikanbetsu.pdf (in Japanese) [accessed February 6, 2020]
- [209] T. Nagao, J. Izutsu, M. Kamogawa, Y. Orihara, S. Sugiura, and H. Kondo, “Electromagnetic observation addressed to the short-term earthquake prediction research in VLF band,” Electro-Magnetic Studies of Earthquakes and Volcanoes (EMSEV) Int. Workshop 2018, 2018.
- [210] T. Nagao, “Observation of electromagnetic earthquake-preceding phenomena and comparison with other preceding phenomena,” Annu. Rep. MEXT’s Earthq. Volcano Hazards Obs. Res. Progr., Vol.FY2016H28, Subject No.2501, pp. 485-494, 2017, http://www.eri.u-tokyo.ac.jp/YOTIKYO/OpenReport/H28/h28_Kikanbetsu.pdf (in Japanese) [accessed February 6, 2020]
- [211] S. Morita, M. Nakatani, and T. Mogi, “Correlation between earthquake occurrence and the VHF propagation anomaly indicated by objectively produced prediction maps,” Abstract of the JpGU Meeting 2016, Article No.MIS08-05, 2016.
- [212] S. Morita, M. Nakatani, K. Heki, and T. Mogi, “Observation of FM radio wave propagation anomaly at Shimabara area and the anomaly before 2016 Kumamoto earthquake,” Abstract of the JpGU Meeting 2018, Article No.MIS09-03, 2018 (in Japanese).
- [213] T. Nagao, “Observation of electromagnetic earthquake-preceding phenomena and comparison with other preceding phenomena,” Annu. Rep. MEXT’s Earthq. Volcano Hazards Obs. Res. Progr., Vol.FY2017H29, Subject No.2501, pp. 489-497, 2018, http://www.eri.u-tokyo.ac.jp/YOTIKYO/OpenReport/H29/h29_Kikanbetsu.pdf (in Japanese) [accessed February 6, 2020]
- [214] K. Heki, “Ionospheric electron enhancement preceding the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake,” Geophys. Res. Lett., Vol.38, Article No.L17312, 2011.
- [215] M. Kamogawa and Y. Kakinami, “Is an ionospheric electron enhancement preceding the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake a precursor?,” J. Geophys. Res. Sp. Phys., Vol.118, No.4, pp. 1751-1754, 2013.
- [216] F. Masci, J. N. Thomas, F. Villani, J. A. Secan, and N. Rivera, “On the onset of ionospheric precursors 40 min before strong earthquakes,” J. Geophys. Res. Sp. Phys., Vol.120, No.2, pp. 1383-1393, 2015.
- [217] K. Heki and Y. Enomoto, “Mw dependence of the preseismic ionospheric electron enhancements,” J. Geophys. Res. Sp. Phys., Vol.120, No.8, pp. 7006-7020, 2015.
- [218] L. He and K. Heki, “Ionospheric anomalies immediately before Mw7.0–8.0 earthquakes,” J. Geophys. Res. Sp. Phys., Vol.122, No.8, pp. 8659-8678, 2017.
- [219] L. He and K. Heki, “Three-dimensional distribution of ionospheric anomalies prior to three large earthquakes in Chile,” Geophys. Res. Lett., Vol.43, No.14, pp. 7287-7293, 2016.
- [220] K. Heki, “Ionospheric changes immediately before earthquakes,” Parity, Vol.33, No.2, pp. 52-56, 2018 (in Japanese).
- [221] K. Heki, “Ionospheric disturbances related to earthquakes,” C. Huang and G. Lu (Eds.), “Advances in ionospheric research,” Wiley/AGU Book, (in press).
- [222] J. Y. Liu, Y. I. Chen, Y. J. Chuo, and C. S. Chen, “A statistical investigation of preearthquake ionospheric anomaly,” J. Geophys. Res., Vol.111, No.A5, Article No.A05304, 2006.
- [223] S. Hirooka, T. Ichikawa, K. Hattori, P. Han, C. Yoshino, and J.-Y. Liu, “Spatial and temporal distribution of the pre-seismic ionospheric anomaly prior to the 2011 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku earthquake (Mw9.0),” IEEJ Trans. Fundam. Mater., Vol.136, No.5, pp. 265-271, 2016 (in Japanese with English abstract).
- [224] D. Píša, F. Němec, O. Santolík, M. Parrot, and M. Rycroft, “Additional attenuation of natural VLF electromagnetic waves observed by the DEMETER spacecraft resulting from preseismic activity,” J. Geophys. Res. Sp. Phys., Vol.118, No.8, pp. 5286-5295, 2013.
- [225] H. Nitta, S. Togo, J.-J. Berthelier, T. Kodama, T. Nagao, and M. Kamogawa, “A statistical study of the continuously-sampled VLF-band data by the DEMETER satellite for the ionospheric disturbances preceding earthquakes,” Society of Atmospheric Electricity of Japan, pp. 117-118, 2016 (in Japanese).
- [226] S. Chen, C. Jiang, and J. Zhuang, “Statistical evaluation of efficiency and possibility of earthquake predictions with gravity field variation and its analytic signal in western China,” Pure Appl. Geophys., Vol.173, No.1, pp. 305-319, 2016.
- [227] Y. Orihara, M. Kamogawa, and Y. Noda, “Investigation of anomalous fish catch before the 2011 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku earthquake –Comparison with the cases of the 1896 Meiji-Sanriku earthquake and the 1933 Sanriku earthquake–,” Zisin (J. Seismol. Soc. Japan. 2nd ser.), Vol.67, pp. 81-85, 2014 (in Japanese).
- [228] Y. Orihara, “Inspection of macro anomalies –Especially about the correlation of earthquakes with fish catch–,” Annu. Rep. MEXT’s Earthq. Volcano Hazards Obs. Res. Progr., Vol.FY2018H30, Subject No.2901, pp. 575-580, 2019, http://www.eri.u-tokyo.ac.jp/YOTIKYO/OpenReport/H30/h30_Kikanbetsu.pdf (in Japanese) [accessed February 6, 2020]
- [229] Y. Orihara, M. Kamogawa, Y. Noda, and T. Nagao, “Are deep-sea fish appearances an earthquake precursor?,” Electro-Magnetic Studies of Earthquakes and Volcanoes (EMSEV) Int. Workshop 2018, 2018.
- [230] Y. Orihara and Y. Noda, “Mass stranding before the 2011 Tohoku earthquake, Japan –Correlation between strandings of cetaceans at the Kashima-nada beach and earthquakes around Japan–,” Bull Inst. Ocean. Res. Dev. Tokai Univ., Vol.36, pp. 39-46, 2015 (in Japanese with English abstract).
- [231] T. Ochi, “Temporal change in plate coupling and long-term slow slip events in southwestern Japan,” Earth Planet. Sci. Lett., Vol.431, pp. 8-14, 2015.
- [232] T. Ochi and N. Takeda, “Relation between the coupling and tremor rates in the transition zone around the Shikoku region,” Earth, Planets Sp., Vol.70, Article No.114, 2018.
- [233] H. Ogasawara, R. J. Durrheim, Y. Yabe, T. Ito, G. van Aswegen, M. Grobbelaar, A. Funato, A. Ishida, H. Ogasawara, S. Mngadi, M. S. D. Manzi, M. Ziegler, A. K. Ward, G. Hofmann, P. Moyer, M. Boettcher, P. Dight, W. Ellsworth, B. Liebenberg, N. Wechsler, T. Onstott, N. Berset, and DSeis Team, “Drilling into seismogenic zones of M2.0–M5.5 earthquakes from deep South African gold mines (DSeis): Establishment of research sites,” Proc. Afrirock Symp., Article No.SRM-AFRIROCK-2017-019, 2017.
- [234] A. Ishida, “Stress measurements of rock cores from the source regions of M2-5.5 earthquakes using deformation rate analysis,” Master thesis, Ritusmeikan University, 2018 (in Japanese).
- [235] A. Funato and T. Ito, “A new method of diametrical core deformation analysis for in-situ stress measurements,” Int. J. Rock Mech. Min. Sci., Vol.91, pp. 112-118, 2017.
- [236] S. Kaneki, Y. Yokoyama, T. Hirono, Y. Yabe, and H. Ogasawara, “Mineralogical characteristics of fault rocks recovered from aftershock zone of the M5.5 Orkney earthquake in South Africa (ICDP DSeis project),” Abstracts of the Seismological Society of Japan Fall Meeting 2018, Article No.S08-06, 2018 (in Japanese).
- [237] S. Abe, “In-situ stress in the close vicinity of source fault in South African deep gold mine,” Master thesis, Tohoku University, 2017.
- [238] J. Byerlee, “Friction of rocks,” Pure Appl. Geophys., Vol.116, pp. 615-626, 1978.
- [239] E. Hauksson, “Spatial separation of large earthquakes, aftershocks, and background seismicity: Analysis of interseismic and coseismic seismicity patterns in southern California,” Pure Appl. Geophys., Vol.167, No.8-9, pp. 979-997, 2010.
- [240] P. M. Powers and T. H. Jordan, “Distribution of seismicity across strike-slip faults in California,” J. Geophys. Res., Vol.115, Article No.B05305, 2010.
- [241] M. Naoi, M. Nakatani, K. Otsuki, Y. Yabe, T. Kgarume, O. Murakami, T. Masakale, L. Ribeiro, A. Ward, H. Moriya, H. Kawakata, R. Durrheim, and H. Ogasawara, “Steady activity of microfractures on geological faults loaded by mining stress,” Tectonophysics, Vol.649, pp. 100-114, 2015.
- [242] M. Naoi, M. Nakatani, S. Horiuchi, Y. Yabe, J. Philipp, T. Kgarume, G. Morema, S. Khambule, T. Masakale, L. Ribeiro, K. Miyakawa, A. Watanabe, K. Otsuki, H. Moriya, O. Murakami, H. Kawakata, N. Yoshimitsu, A. Ward, R. Durrheim, and H. Ogasawara, “Frequency–magnitude distribution of -3.7 ≤ Mw ≤ 1 mining-induced earthquakes around a mining front and b value invariance with post-blast time,” Pure Appl. Geophys., Vol.171, No.10, pp. 2665-2684, 2014.
- [243] F. M. Chester and J. S. Chester, “Ultracataclasite structure and friction processes of the Punchbowl fault, San Andreas system, California,” Tectonophysics, Vol.295, No.1-2, pp. 199-221, 1998.
- [244] T. Furuta, K. Katou, S. Itoh, K. Tachibana, S. Ishikawa, and H. Katsuragi, “Geometry-dependent constitutive law for granular slow frictional drag,” Int. J. Mod. Phys. B, Vol.31, Article No.1742006, 2017.
- [245] T. Furuta, S. Kumar, K. A. Reddy, H. Niiya, and H. Katsuragi, “Packing-dependent granular friction exerted on a rod withdrawn from a granular layer: The role of shear jamming,” New J. Phys, Vol.21, Article No.023001, 2019.
- [246] A. Shinoda, S. Fujiwara, H. Niiya, and H. Katsuragi, “Void structure stability in wet granular matter and its application to crab burrows and cometary pits,” Sci. Rep., Vol.8, Article No.15784, 2018.
- [247] S. Takizawa, H. Niiya, T. Tanabe, H. Nishimori, and H. Katsuragi, “Impact-induced collapse of an inclined wet granular layer,” Physica D: Nonlinear Phenom., Vol.386-387, pp. 8-13, 2019.
- [248] K. Endo, K. A. Reddy, and H. Katsuragi, “Obstacle-shape effect in a two-dimensional granular silo flow field,” Phys. Rev. Fluids, Vol.2, Article No.094302, 2017.
- [249] H. Katsuragi, K. A. Reddy, and K. Endo, “Shape dependence of resistance force exerted on an obstacle placed in a gravity-driven granular silo flow,” AIChE J., Vol.64, No.11, pp. 3849-3856, 2018.
- [250] J. Dieterich, “A constitutive law for rate of earthquake production and its application to earthquake clustering,” J. Geophys. Res. B Solid Earth, Vol.99, pp. 2601-2618, 1994.
- [251] S. Toda and R. S. Stein, “Why aftershock duration matters for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment,” Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., Vol.108, No.3, pp. 1414-1426, 2018.
- [252] T. Iwata, “A variety of aftershock decays in the rate- and state-friction model due to the effect of secondary aftershocks: Implications derived from an analysis of real aftershock sequences,” Pure Appl. Geophys., Vol.173, pp. 21-33, 2016.
- [253] S. Ide and H. Aochi, “Earthquakes as multiscale dynamic ruptures with heterogeneous fracture surface energy,” J. Geophys. Res. Solid Earth, Vol.110, Article No.B003591, 2005.
- [254] T. Okuda and S. Ide, “Streak and hierarchical structures of the Tohoku–Hokkaido subduction zone plate boundary,” Earth, Planets Sp., Vol.70, Article No.132, 2018.
- [255] T. Okuda and S. Ide, “Hierarchical rupture growth evidenced by the initial seismic waveforms,” Nat. Commun., Vol.9, Article No.3714, 2018.
- [256] H. Noda, M. Nakatani, and T. Hori, “Large nucleation before large earthquakes is sometimes skipped due to cascade-up – Implications from a rate and state simulation of faults with hierarchical asperities,” J. Geophys. Res. Solid Earth, Vol.118, No.6, pp. 2924-2952, 2013.
- [257] M. Naoi, M. Nakatani, T. Kgarume, S. Khambule, T. Masakale, L. Ribeiro, J. Philipp, S. Horiuchi, K. Otsuki, K. Miyakawa, A. Watanabe, H. Moriya, O. Murakami, Y. Yabe, H. Kawakata, N. Yoshimitsu, A. Ward, R. Durrheim, and H. Ogasawara, “Quasi-static slip patch growth to 20 m on a geological fault inferred from acoustic emissions in a South African gold mine,” J. Geophys. Res. Solid Earth, Vol.120, Article No.2014JB011165, 2015.
- [258] Y. Tsujimura, H. Kawakata, E. Fukuyama, S. Hirano, F. Yamashita, S. Xu, K. Mizoguchi, and S. Takizawa, “Repeating events during stick-slip experiment of large rock samples,” Abstracts of the Seismological Society of Japan Fall Meeting 2017, Article No.S08-26, 2017 (in Japanese).
- [259] J. Yamaguchi, M. Naoi, M. Nakatani, H. Moriya, T. Igarashi, O. Murakami, Y. Yabe, R. Durrheim, and H. Ogasawara, “Emergence and disappearance of very small repeating earthquakes on a geological fault in a gold mine in South Africa,” Tectonophysics, Vol.747-748, pp. 318-326, 2018.
- [260] N. Yoshimitsu, H. Kawakata, and N. Takahashi, “Magnitude -7 level earthquakes: A new lower limit of self-similarity in seismic scaling relationships,” Geophys. Res. Lett., Vol.41, No.13, pp. 4495-4502, 2014.
- [261] G. Kwiatek, K. Plenkers, M. Nakatani, Y. Yabe, G. Dresen, and JAGUARS-Group, “Frequency-magnitude characteristics down to magnitude -4.4 for induced seismicity recorded at Mponeng Gold Mine, South Africa,” Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., Vol.100, No.3, pp. 1165-1173, 2010.
- [262] M. Bouchon, V. Durand, D. Marsan, H. Karabulut, and J. Schmittbuhl, “The long precursory phase of most large interplate earthquakes,” Nat. Geosci., Vol.6, No.4, pp. 299-302, 2013.
- [263] E. Lippiello, W. Marzocchi, L. de Arcangelis, and C. Godano, “Spatial organization of foreshocks as a tool to forecast large earthquakes,” Sci. Rep., Vol.2, Article No.846, 2012.
- [264] M. Kamogawa, K. Z. Nanjo, J. Izutsu, Y. Orihara, T. Nagao, and S. Uyeda, “Nucleation and cascade features of earthquake mainshock statistically explored from foreshock seismicity,” Entropy, Vol.21, Article No.421, 2019.
- [265] H. Moriya, M. Naoi, M. Nakatani, G. van Aswegen, O. Murakami, T. Kgarume, A. K. Ward, R. J. Durrheim, J. Philipp, Y. Yabe, H. Kawakata, and H. Ogasawara, “Delineation of large localized damage structures forming ahead of an active mining front by using advanced acoustic emission mapping techniques,” Int. J. Rock Mech. Min. Sci., Vol.79, pp. 157-165, 2015.
- [266] G. Zöller, S. Hainzl, and J. Kurths, “Observation of growing correlation length as an indicator for critical point behavior prior to large earthquakes,” J. Geophys. Res. Solid Earth, Vol.106, No.B2, pp. 2167-2175, 2001.
- [267] N. Yamagata, M. Naoi, M. Nakatani, H. Moriya, K. Otsuki, T. Kgarume, J. Philipp, O. Murakami, T. Masakale, L. Ribeiro, Y. Yabe, H. Kawakata, A. Ward, T. Ishida, R. Durrheim, and H. Ogasawara, “Detailed spatial distribution of AEs along mining front at a 1-km depth in the Cooke 4 gold mine in South Africa,” Abstracts of the Seismological Society of Japan Fall Meeting 2016, Article No.S09-19, 2016 (in Japanese).
- [268] S. B. Mngadi, R. J. Durrheim, M. S. D. Manzi, H. Ogasawara, Y. Yabe, H. Yilmaz, N. Wechsler, G. Van Aswegen, D. Roberts, A. K. Ward, M. Naoi, H. Moriya, M. Nakatani, A. Ishida, SATREPS Team, and ICDP DSeis Team, “Integration of underground mapping, petrology, and high-resolution microseismicity analysis to characterise weak geotechnical zones in deep South African gold mines,” Int. J. Rock Mech. Min. Sci., Vol.114, pp. 79-91, 2019.
- [269] D. Schorlemmer, S. Wiemer, and M. Wyss, “Variations in earthquake-size distribution across different stress regimes,” Nature, Vol.437, No.7058, pp. 539-542, 2005.
- [270] C. H. Scholz, “On the stress dependence of the earthquake b value,” Geophys. Res. Lett., Vol.42, No.5, pp. 1399-1402, 2015.
- [271] T. Nishikawa and S. Ide, “Earthquake size distribution in subduction zones linked to slab buoyancy,” Nat. Geosci., Vol.7, No.12, pp. 904-908, 2014.
- [272] K. Z. Nanjo and A. Yoshida, “A b map implying the first eastern rupture of the Nankai Trough earthquakes,” Nat. Commun., Vol.9, Article No.1117, 2018.
- [273] Y. Yokota, T. Ishikawa, S. Watanabe, T. Tashiro, and A. Asada, “Seafloor geodetic constraints on interplate coupling of the Nankai Trough megathrust zone,” Nature, Vol.534, No.7607, pp. 374-377, 2016.
- [274] T. Tormann, B. Enescu, J. Woessner, and S. Wiemer, “Randomness of megathrust earthquakes implied by rapid stress recovery after the Japan earthquake,” Nat. Geosci., Vol.8, No.2, pp. 152-158, 2015.
- [275] S. Uyeda, “Detection of seismicity changes preceding large earthquakes using a variety of analysis methods,” Annu. Rep. MEXT’s Earthq. Volcano Hazards Obs. Res. Progr., Vol.FY2017H29, Subject No.2902, pp. 524-529, 2018, http://www.eri.u-tokyo.ac.jp/YOTIKYO/OpenReport/H29/h29_Kikanbetsu.pdf (in Japanese) [accessed February 6, 2020]
- [276] T. Ishibe, K. Satake, S. Sakai, K. Shimazaki, H. Tsuruoka, Y. Yokota, S. Nakagawa, and N. Hirata, “Correlation between Coulomb stress imparted by the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake and seismicity rate change in Kanto, Japan,” Geophys. J. Int., Vol.201, pp. 112-134, 2015.
- [277] M. Miao and S.-B. Zhu, “A study of the impact of static Coulomb stress changes of megathrust earthquakes along subduction zone on the following aftershocks,” Chinese J. Geophys., Vol.55, No.5, pp. 539-551, 2012.
- [278] T. Ishibe, Y. Ogata, H. Tsuruoka, and K. Satake, “Testing the Coulomb stress triggering hypothesis for three recent megathrust earthquakes,” Geosci. Lett., Vol.4, Article No.5, 2017.
- [279] Y. Suzuki, S. Toda, K. Yoshida, and T. Okada, “Effects of local fault structure on the seismicity following the 2011 Tohoku earthquake,” Abstracts of the Seismological Society of Japan Fall Meeting 2014, Article No.D21-08, 2014 (in Japanese).
- [280] R. S. Matsu’ura, T. Ishibe, and K. Tsumura, “Significant decrease of seismicity in the northeastern margin of the Japan Sea after the mega thrust event on Mar. 11, 2011,” Abstract of the JpGU-AGU Joint Meeting 2017, Article No.SSS05-10, 2017.
- [281] Y. Ogata, “Seismicity and geodetic anomalies in a wide area preceding the Niigata-Ken-Chuetsu earthquake of 23 October 2004, central Japan,” J. Geophys. Res. Solid Earth, Vol.112, Article No.B10301, 2007.
- [282] K. Katsumata, “Long-term seismic quiescence caused by partial decoupling of the plate boundary prior to the 2011 Tohoku earthquake,” Abstract of the JpGU Meeting 2013, Article No.SCG62-07, 2013.
- [283] S. Ozawa, T. Nishimura, H. Munekane, H. Suito, T. Kobayashi, M. Tobita, and T. Imakiire, “Preceding, coseismic, and postseismic slips of the 2011 Tohoku earthquake, Japan,” J. Geophys. Res. Solid Earth, Vol.117, Article No.B07404, 2012.
- [284] F. Hirose, K. Maeda, and K. Fujita, “Simulation of the great earthquakes along the Nankai trough and slow slip events,” Rep. Coord. Comm. Earthq. Predict. Japan, Vol.93, pp. 429-431, 2015 (in Japanese).
- [285] F. Hirose, K. Maeda, and K. Fujita, “Influence of the earthquake southern east off Mie prefecture (2016/04/01, M6.5) on the great earthquakes along the Nankai trough,” Rep. Coord. Comm. Earthq. Predict. Japan, Vol.96, pp. 311-316, 2016 (in Japanese).
- [286] M. Ohtani, N. Kame, and M. Nakatani, “Nucleation of characteristic earthquakes in simulated cycles involving deep huge slow slip events,” J. Geophys. Res. Solid Earth, Vol.124, No.2, pp. 1822-1837, 2019.
- [287] S. Ide and H. Aochi, “Modeling earthquakes using fractal circular patch models with lessons from the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake,” J. Disaster Res., Vol.9, No.3, pp. 264-271, 2014.
- [288] S. Ide and H. Aochi, “Historical seismicity and dynamic rupture process of the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake,” Tectonophysics, Vol.600, pp. 1-13, 2013.
- [289] K. Fujita, F. Hirose, and K. Maeda, “Simulation of recurring earthquakes along the Japan trench,” Abstracts of the JpGU Meeting 2016, Article No.SSS27-P13, 2016.
- [290] S. Yabe and S. Ide, “Slip-behavior transitions of a heterogeneous linear fault,” J. Geophys. Res. Solid Earth, Vol.122, No.1, pp. 387-410, 2017.
- [291] S. Yabe and S. Ide, “Variations in precursory slip behavior resulting from frictional heterogeneity,” Prog. Earth Planet. Sci., Vol.5, Article No.43, 2018.
- [292] T. Yamaguchi, Y. Sawae, and S. M. Rubinstein, “Effects of loading angles on stick-slip dynamics of soft sliders,” Extrem. Mech. Lett., Vol.9, pp. 331-335, 2016.
- [293] T. Yamaguchi, Y. Himeno, and Y. Sawae, “Stick-slip motions of polymer gels having multiple artificial asperities,” Proc. of Malaysian Int. Tribology Conf. 2015, pp. 78-79, 2015.
- [294] F. Yamashita, E. Fukuyama, S. Xu, H. Kawakata, K. Mizoguchi, and S. Takizawa, “Two types of foreshock activities observed on meter-scale laboratory faults: Slow-slip-driven and cascade-up,” Abstract of the AGU Fall Meeting 2017, Article No.S34B-07, 2017.
- [295] E. Fukuyama, K. Tsuchida, H. Kawakata, F. Yamashita, K. Mizoguchi, and S. Xu, “Spatiotemporal complexity of 2-D rupture nucleation process observed by direct monitoring during large-scale biaxial rock friction experiments,” Tectonophysics, Vol.733, pp. 182-192, 2018.
- [296] Y. Ueda, S. Morimoto, S. Kakui, T. Yamamoto, and H. Kawamura, “Dynamics of earthquake nucleation process represented by the Burridge-Knopoff model,” Eur. Phys. J. B, Vol.88, Article No.235, 2015.
- [297] H. Kawamura, K. Yoshimura, and S. Kakui, “Nature of the high-speed rupture of the Burridge–Knopoff model of earthquakes,” Philos. Trans. R. Society A, Vol.377, Article No.20170391, 2018.
- [298] D. Tsuji and H. Katsuragi, “Temporal analysis of acoustic emission from a plunged granular bed,” Phys. Rev. E, Vol.92, Article No.042201, 2015.
- [299] D. Iwata, H. Nagahama, J. Muto, and Y. Yasuoka, “Change point in log-periodic power law time series of atmospheric radon concentration,” Abstract of the JpGU-AGU Joint Meeting 2017, Article No.MGI29-P11, 2017.
- [300] Y. Xue, J. Liu, H. Z. Yu, and S. Q. Liu, “Seismicity characteristics of the 2011 M9.0 Tohoku earthquake near the east coast of Honshu in Japan,” Chinese Sci. Bull., Vol.57, No.8, pp. 886-893, 2012.
- [301] T. Hatano, “Quantitative formulae relating the seismicity parameters and the stress of seismogenesis field,” Annu. Rep. MEXT’s Earthq. Volcano Hazards Obs. Res. Progr., Vol.FY2018H30, Subject No.1512, pp. 267-270, 2019, http://www.eri.u-tokyo.ac.jp/YOTIKYO/OpenReport/H30/h30_Kikanbetsu.pdf (in Japanese) [accessed February 6, 2020]
- [302] S. Roy and T. Hatano, “Creeplike behavior in athermal threshold dynamics: Effects of disorder and stress,” Phys. Rev. E, Vol.97, Article No.062149, 2018.
- [303] J. Luo and J. Zhuang, “Three regimes of the distribution of the largest event in the critical ETAS model,” Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., Vol.106, No.3, pp. 1364-1369, 2016.
- [304] A. Saichev and D. Sornette, “Distribution of the largest aftershocks in branching models of triggered seismicity: Theory of the universal Båth law,” Phys. Rev. E, Vol.71, No.5, Article No.056127, 2005.
- [305] J. Zhuang, M. Matsu’ura, and P. Han, “Critical zone of the branching crack model for earthquakes: Inherent randomness, earthquake predictability, and precursor modelling,” Presentation slides at the Int. Symp. on Earthquake Forecast/5th Int. Workshop on Earthquake Preparation Process, –Observation, Validation, Modeling, Forecasting–, 2018, http://www.emsev-iugg.org/ISEF-IWEP5/pdf/ISEF-IWEP2019Zhuang_branching_crack_model.pdf [accessed February 10, 2020]
- [306] J. Zhuang, D. Wang, and M. Matsu’ura, “Features of earthquake source process simulated by Vere-Jones’ branching crack model,” Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., Vol.106, No.4, pp. 1832-1839, 2016.
- [307] D. E. Smith and S. I. Sacks, “Magnitude-dependent seismic quiescence: A meta-analysis of data and numerical simulations of the underlying physics,” Abstracts of the AGU Fall Meeting 2013, Article No.S11A-2290, 2013.
- [308] K. Suyehiro, S. I. Sacks, T. Takanami, D. E. Smith, and P. A. Rydelek, “Magnitude dependent seismic quiescence of 2008 Wenchuan earthquake,” Abstracts of the AGU Fall Meeting 2014, Article No.S53D-4555, 2014.
- [309] K. Suyehiro, S. Sacks, T. Takanami, D. Smith, P. Rydelek, and T. Hatano, “Magnitude dependent seismic quiescence and following short-term precursors as dilatancy strengthening and breakdown before large earthquakes and their detection,” Abstract of the 26th IUGG General Assembly, Article No.IUGG-4255, 2015.
- [310] I. S. Sacks and P. A. Rydelek, “Earthquake ‘quanta’ as an explanation for observed magnitudes and stress drops,” Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., Vol.85, No.3, pp. 808-813, 1995.
- [311] W. F. Brace and R. J. Martin, “A test of the law of effective stress for crystalline rocks of low porosity,” Int. J. Rock Mech. Min. Sci., Vol.5, No.5, pp. 415-426, 1968.
- [312] L. He and K. Heki, “Three-dimensional tomography of ionospheric anomalies immediately before the 2015 Illapel earthquake, central Chile,” J. Geophys. Res. Sp. Phys., Vol.123, No.5, pp. 4015-4025, 2018.
- [313] M. C. Kelley, W. E. Swartz, and K. Heki, “Apparent ionospheric total electron content variations prior to major earthquakes due to electric fields created by tectonic stresses,” J. Geophys. Res. Sp. Phys., Vol.122, No.6, pp. 6689-6695, 2017.
- [314] S. Togo and M. Kamogawa, “Ionospheric earthquake precursors on satellite measurement: Physical features and predictability,” Proc. of the Int. Workshop on Earthquake Precursor, pp. 12-13, 2016.
- [315] H. Nitta, M. Kamogawa, T. Kodama, T. Nagao, and J.-J. Berthelier, “Physical mechanism of pre-seismic VLF intensity decrease observed by DEMETER satellite,” Proc. of the 2nd Int. Workshop of China Seismo-Electromagnetic Satellite Mission, pp. 35-36, 2016.
- [316] J. Zhuang, D. Vere-Jones, H. Guan, Y. Ogata, and L. Ma, “Preliminary analysis of observations on the ultra-low frequency electric field in the Beijing region,” Pure Appl. Geophys., Vol.162, No.6-7, pp. 1367-1396, 2005.
- [317] J. Zhuang, Y. Ogata, D. Vere-Jones, L. Ma, and H. Guan, “Statistical modeling of earthquake occurrences based on external geophysical observations: With an illustrative application to the ultra-low frequency ground electric signals observed in the Beijing region,” Y.-G. Li (Ed.), “Seismic Imaging, Fault Damage and Heal,” pp. 351-378, De Gruyter, 2014.
- [318] O. Kuwano, S. Yoshida, M. Nakatani, and M. Uyeshima, “Origin of transient self-potential signals associated with very long period seismic pulses observed during the 2000 activity of Miyakejima volcano,” J. Geophys. Res. Solid Earth, Vol.120, No.5, pp. 3544-3565, 2015.
- [319] Y. Sasai, M. Uyeshima, J. Zlotnicki, H. Utada, T. Kagiyama, T. Hashimoto, and Y. Takahashi, “Magnetic and electric field observations during the 2000 activity of Miyake-jima volcano, central Japan,” Earth Planet. Sci. Lett., Vol.203, No.2, pp. 769-777, 2002.
- [320] O. Kuwano, M. Nakatani, and S. Yoshida, “Effect of the flow state on streaming current,” Geophys. Res. Lett., Vol.33, Article No.L21309, 2006.
- [321] J. L. Hardebeck, “Appendix S – Constraining epidemic type aftershock sequence (ETAS) parameters from the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, version 3 catalog and validating the ETAS model for magnitude 6.5 or greater earthquakes,” USGS Open-File Rep., No.2013-1165-S, 2013.
- [322] Y. Ogata, K. Katsura, H. Tsuruoka, and N. Hirata, “Exploring magnitude forecasting of the next earthquake,” Seismol. Res. Lett., Vol.89, No.4, pp. 1298-1304, 2018.

This article is published under a Creative Commons Attribution-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.