Estimation of Supply Chain Network Disruption of Companies Across the Country Affected by the Nankai Trough Earthquake Tsunami in Kochi City
Yoshiki Ogawa*1,, Yuki Akiyama*2, Muneta Yokomatsu*3,*4, Yoshihide Sekimoto*1, and Ryosuke Shibasaki*2
*1Institute of Industrial Science, The University of Tokyo
4-6-1 Komaba, Meguro-ku, Tokyo 153-8505, Japan
*2Center for Spatial Information Science, The University of Tokyo, Chiba, Japan
*3Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan
*4Risk and Resilience Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria
Using various types of big data on the Nankai Trough earthquake and tsunami that struck Kochi, we describe a method of simulating how economic damage to inter-enterprise transactions propagates through the supply chain and how subsequent recovery occurs. First, we enter the human losses and material damage caused by the earthquake and tsunami to estimate the material damage and labor capital loss of each enterprise based on the position information of employees. Next, we simulate the damage repercussions regarding production capacity over the entire supply chain through many tiers, and extract bottlenecks of company risk within the supply chain. It was found that bottleneck companies tend have a slow recovery rate as compared to other affected companies. They also had a tendency of being in the construction, manufacturing, wholesale, and service industry sectors, and small in scale.
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