Reservoir Operation for Water Supply Considering Operational Ensemble Hydrological Predictions
Daisuke Nohara and Tomoharu Hori
Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University
Gokasho, Uji, Kyoto 611-0011, Japan
This paper presents approaches and case studies for the introduction of ensemble hydrological predictions to reservoir operation for water supply. Medium-term operational ensemble forecasts of precipitation are employed to improve the real-time reservoir operation for drought management considering longer prospects with respect to future hydrological conditions in the target river basin. Real-time optimization of the water release strategy is conducted using dynamic programming approaches considering ensemble hydrological predictions. A case study on the application of ensemble hydrological predictions to reservoir operation for water use is reported as an example, with a hypothetical target river basin whose hydrological characteristics are derived from an actual reservoir and river basin.
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