A Trial Application of Geodetic Data for Inland Fault Assessment – Coulomb Stress Changes Estimated from GNSS Surface Displacements
Disaster Prevention Research Institute (DPRI), Kyoto University
Gokasho, Uji, Kyoto 611-0011, Japan
We examine a method to calculate changes in Coulomb failure stress (ΔCFS) from observed GNSS displacements. The method assumes no stress changes on a horizontal plane and a linear elastic relation between strain and stress, represented by Hooke’s law. The ΔCFS distributions calculated using this method are applied to the 2003 Tokachi-oki and the 2016 Kumamoto earthquakes and they are compared with those using a standard dislocation model buried in an elastic half-space. The results suggest that the ΔCFS distribution at a depth of 10 km in a region far from a deformation source can give a first-order approximation using observations of surface displacements. However, ΔCFS distributions near the source cannot be reproduced by the examined method and need to be evaluated using the standard method. We apply the examined method and GNSS displacement data to calculate ΔCFS on major active faults as well as source faults of large inland earthquakes in southwest Japan for the period 1996-2017. ΔCFS from five large earthquakes, including the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake are separately calculated using the standard method with published fault models. Calculated ΔCFS increases by an order of 10 KPa at most faults over the past 21 years. ΔCFS on the source faults for the 2000 Western Tottori, the 2016 Kumamoto, and the 2016 Central Tottori earthquakes reached a maximum just before their rupture. Coseismic and postseismic deformation of the 2011 Tohoku-oki earthquake accelerated an increase of ΔCFS at some faults, including the source fault of the 2016 Central Tottori earthquake and the Arima-Takatsuki fault zone. The examined method can provide information on the activity of inland earthquakes using contemporarily observed deformation, and can hopefully improve the preparedness for earthquakes.
-  E. Field, et al., “A Synoptic View of the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3),” Seimol. Res. Lett., Vol.88, No.5, doi:10.1785/0220170045, 2017.
-  Headquaters for Earthquake Research Promotion, Earthquake Research Committee, “Regarding methos for evaluating long-term probability of earthquake occurrence (June 8, 2001),” 2001, http://www.jishin.go.jp/main/choukihyoka/01b/chouki020326.pdf(inJapanese) [accessed April 26, 2018]
-  Headquaters for Earthquake Research Promotion, Earthquake Research Committee, “Report: ‘National Seismic Hazard Maps for Japan (2005)’,” 2005, http://www.jishin.go.jp/main/index-e.html [accessed April 26, 2018]
-  T. Nishimura, “Strain concentration zones in the Japanese Islands clarified from GNSS data and its relation with active faults and inland earthquakes,” Active Fault Res., Vol.46, pp. 33-39, 2017 (in Japanese with English abstract).
-  G. King, R. Stein, and J. Lin, “Static stress changes and the triggering of earthquakes,” Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., Vol.84, No.3, pp. 935-953, 1994.
-  M. Radiguet, et al., “Triggering of the 2014 Mw7.3 Papanoa earthquake by a slow slip event in Guerrero, Mexico,” Nature Geoscience, Vol.9, pp. 829-833, doi:10.1038/ngeo2817, 2016.
-  T. Nishimura, et al., “The M6.1 earthquake triggered by volcanic inflation of Iwate volcano, northern Japan, observed by satellite radar interferometry,” Geophys. Res. Lett., Vol.28, Issue 4, pp. 635-638, doi:10.1029/2000GL012022, 2001.
-  S. Toda, et al., “12 May 2008 M=7.9 Wenchuan, China, earthquake calculated to increase failure stress and seismicity rate on three major fault systems,” Geophys. Res. Lett., Vol.35, Issue 17, L17305, doi: 10.1029/2008GL034903, 2008.
-  S. Toda, J. Lin, and R. Stein, “Using the 2011 Mw 9.0 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku Earthquake to test the Coulomb stress triggering hypothesis and to calculate faults brought closer to failure,” Earth Planet Space, Vol.63:39, doi: 10.5047/eps.2011.05.010, 2011.
-  M. Ueda and H. Takahashi, “Triggered Earthquakes along the Volcanic Front in the Eastern Hokkaido, Japan, and Its Relevance to the Static Stress Change Due to the 2003 Tokachi-oki Earthquake,” J. of Seismol. Soc. Jpn. (Zisin), Vol.58., pp. 115-119, 2005 (in Japanese).
-  M. Ohzono and H. Takahashi, “Coseismic strain and stress change due to the foreshocks and mainshock of the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake sequence from GNSS data,” Abstract 126th Meeting Geodetic Soc. Jpn., 071, pp. 145-146, 2016 (in Japanese).
-  S. Sagiya, “A decade of GEONET: 1994-2003 – The continuous GPS observation in Japan and its impact on earthquake studies,” Earth Planets and Space, Vol.56, pp. xxix-xli, doi: 10.1186/BF03353077, 2004.
-  T. Nishimura, M. Sato, and T. Sagiya, “Global Positioning System (GPS) and GPS-Acoustic observations: Insight into slip along the subduction zones around Japan,” Annu. Rev. of Earth and Planet. Sci., Vol.42, pp. 653-674, doi: 10.1146/annurev-earth-060313-054614, 2014.
-  Y. Okada, “Internal deformation due to shear and tensile faults in a half-space,” Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., Vol.82, No.2, pp. 1018-1040, 1985.
-  Geospatial Information Authority of Japan, “The 2016 Kumamoto Earthquake,” Rep. Coord. Comitt. Earthq. Pred., Vol.96, pp. 557-589, 2016 (in Japanese).
-  Geographical Survey Institute, “Crustal Movements in the Hokkaido district,” Rep. Coord. Comitt. Earthq. Pred., Vol.71, pp. 135-187, 2004 (in Japanese).
-  Z. Shen, D. Jackson, and B. Ge, “Crustal deformation across and beyond the Los Angeles basin from geodetic measurements,” J. of Geophys. Res.: Solid Earth, Vol.101, Issue B12, pp. 27957-27980, 1996.
-  T. Nishimura, et al., “Temporal change of interplate coupling in northeastern Japan during 1995-2002 estimated from continuous GPS observations,” Geophys. J. Int., Vol.157, Issue 2, pp. 901-916, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.2004.02159.x, 2004.
-  T. Ochi, “Temporal change in plate coupling and long-term slow slip events in southwestern Japan,” Earth and Planet. Sci. Lett., Vol.431, pp. 8-14, doi:10.1016/j.epsl.2015.09.012, 2015.
-  Headquaters for Earthquake Research Promotion, Earthquake Research Committee, “National Seismic Hazard Maps for Japan: Sub-volume 2 National Seismic Hazard Maps for specified sourec faults,” 2001, http://www.jishin.go.jp/evaluation/seismic_hazard_map/shm_report/shm_report_2009/(inJapanese) [accessed April 26, 2018]
-  T. Sagiya, et al., “Crustal movements associated with the 2000 western Tottori earthquake and its fault models,” J. of Seismol. Soc. Jpn. (Zisin), Vol.54, pp. 523-534, 2002.
-  Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University, “GNSS observation in and around the source area of the Central Tottori Prefecture earthquake (October 21, 2016),” Rep. Coord. Comitt. Earthq. Pred., Vol.97, pp. 397-403, 2016.
-  Geographical Survey Institute, “Crustal Movements in the Chugoku, Shikoku and Kyushu Districts,” Rep. Coord. Comitt., Vol.66, pp. 486-512, 2001.
-  T. Nishimura, et al., “Fault model of the 2005 Fukuoka-ken Seiho-oki earthquake estimated from coseismic deformation observed by GPS and InSAR,” Earth Planets and Space, Vol.58, pp. 51-56, doi:10.1186/BF03351913, 2006.
-  Y. Iio and Y. Kobayashi, “A physical understanding of large intraplate earthquakes,” Earth Planets and Space, Vol.54, pp. 1001-1004, doi:10.1186/BF03353292, 2002.
-  A. Noda and M. Matsu’ura, “Physics-based GPS data inversion to estimate three-dimensional elastic and inelastic strain fields,” Geophys. J. Int., Vol.182, pp. 513-530, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.2010.04611.x, 2010.
-  A. Meneses-Gutierrez and T. Sagiya, “Persistent inelastic deformation in central Japan revealed by GPS observation before and after the Tohoku-oki earthquake,” Earth Planet. Sci. Lett., Vol.450, pp. 366-371, doi:10.1016/j.epsl.2016.06.055, 2016.
-  T. Nishimura, H. Suito, T. Kobayashi, Q. Dong, and T. Shibayama, “Excess strain in the Echigo Plain sedimentary basin, NE Japan: Evidence from coseismic deformation of the 2011 Tohoku-oki earthquake,” Geophys. J. Int., Vol.205, pp. 1613-1617, doi:10.1093/gji/ggw102, 2016.
-  S. Toda, R. Stein, K. Richards-Dinger, and S. Bozkurt, “Forecasting the evolution of seismicity in southern California: Animations built on earthquake stress transfer,” J. of Geophys. Res.: Solid Earth, Vol.110, Issue B5, B05S16, doi:10.1029/2004JB003415, 2005.