Paper:
Has 20 Years of Japanese Earthquake Research Enhanced Seismic Disaster Resilience in Kumamoto?
Naoshi Hirata†
Earthquake Research Institute, the University of Tokyo
1-1-1 Yayoi, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo 113-0032, Japan
†Corresponding author
It has been about 20 years since the Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion (HERP) was established following the Great Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake Disaster. Now the time has come to examine its contributions to disaster resilience. On April 14 and 17, 2016, a series of large earthquakes, including M6.5 and M7.3 events, occurred in Kumamoto Prefecture in Kyushu, Japan. More than 200 fatalities and 8,600 totally collapsed houses were reported. The earthquakes occurred on known active faults, which were assessed by the Earthquake Research Committee (ERC) before the events. The regional disaster management plan by Kumamoto Prefecture had predicted the events reported by the ERC and estimated damages at about the same level as what was actually seen. However, even though the estimate was accurate, the countermeasures were insufficient: the local people still did not seriously expect a large earthquake to strike in their local area, and their efforts to enhance the disaster resilience of the Kumamoto area were insufficient. This suggests that the efforts by the HERP were not sufficient to make the local community resilient enough to withstand a large earthquake.
- [1] M. Hino, “A study on Earthquake Disaster Prevention Education,” Papers of the annual conference of the Institute of Social Safety Science, Vol.5, 267-274, 1995.
- [2] Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion, “The Promotion of Earthquake Research, – Basic comprehensive policy for the promotion of earthquake observation, measurement, surveys and research – (April 23, 1999),” http://www.jishin.go.jp/main/suihon-e/sogo.pdf [Last accessed November 1, 2017]
- [3] N. Hirata, “Past, current and future of Japanese national program for earthquake prediction research,” Earth Planets Space, Vol.56, No.8, pp. xliii-l, 2004.
- [4] A. Kato, K. Nakamura, and Y. Hiyama, “The 2016 Kumamoto earthquake sequence,” Proc. Jpn. Acad. Ser. B, doi:10.2183/pjab.92.359, 2016.
- [5] Japan Meteorological Agency, “The April 14, 21:26 Kumamoto earthquake,” http://www.jma.go.jp/jma/press/1604/14a /kaisetsu201604142330.pdf [Last accessed November 1, 2017]
- [6] Japan Meteorological Agency, “The 2016 Kumamoto earthquake sequence (Part 6),” 2016, http://www.jma.go.jp/jma/press/ 1604/15g/kaisetsu201604151530.pdf [Last accessed November 1, 2017]
- [7] Japan Meteorological Agency, “The 2016 Kumamoto earthquake sequence (Part 7),” 2016, http://www.jma.go.jp/jma/press /1604/16a/kaisetsu201604160330.pdf [Last accessed November 1, 2017]
- [8] Japan Meteorological Agency, “The 2016 Kumamoto earthquake sequence (Part 22),” 2016, http://www.jma.go.jp/jma/ press/1604/20c/kaisetsu201604201800.pdf [Last accessed November 1, 2017]
- [9] N. Sugito, H. Goto, Y. Kumahara, H. Tsutsumi, T. Nakata, K. Kagohara, N. Matsuta, and H. Yoshida, “Surface fault ruptures associated with the 14 April foreshock (Mj 6.5) of the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake sequence, southwest Japan,” Earth, Planets and Space, 68:170 DOI 10.1186/s40623-016-0547-5, 2016.
- [10] H. Goto, H. Tsutsumi, S. Toda, and Y. Kumahara, “Geomorphic features of surface ruptures associated with the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake in and around the downtown of Kumamoto City, and implications on triggered slip along active faults,” Goto et al. Earth, Planets and Space, Vol.69, No.26, DOI 10.1186/s40623-017-0603-9, 2017.
- [11] Earthquake Research Committee of the Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion, Long-term evaluation of active faults in the Kyushu region: First edition, 2013, http://jishin.go.jp/main /chousa/13feb_chi_kyushu/k_honbun.pdf [Last accessed November 1, 2017]
- [12] Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion, Earthquake Research Committee, “Hazard map of prediction of ground motion of 2014 year edition – Overview of ground motion hazard in Japan,” 2014, http://www.jishin.go.jp/main/chousa /14_yosokuchizu/honpen.pdf [Last accessed November 1, 2017]
- [13] Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion, Earthquakehttp://www.jishin.go.jp/main/chousa/02may_futagawa/index.htm Research Committee, “Evaluation on Futagawa-Hinagu fault zone” May 8, 2002. Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion, Earthquake Research Committee, “Evaluation on Futagawa-Hinagu fault zone (partially revised),” February 1, 2013. http://www.jishin.go.jp/main/chousa/13feb_futagawa/
- [14] Seismic hazard map of earthquakes by active faults newly evaluated in the “Long term estimation on active faults in Kyushu area (1st version) (simplified method calculation results),” December 2013. http://jishin.go.jp/main/kyoshindo/yosokushindo/13dec_kyushu.pdf
- [15] Disaster prevention committee of Kumamoto (2017), Kumamoto Local Plan for Disaster Prevention (Edition on measure on Earthquake/Tsunami ) (revised in 2017). http://cyber.pref.kumamoto.jp/bousai/Content/asp/topics/topics _detail.asp?PageID=6&PageType=shiryo&id=1187
- [16] Kumamoto Prefecture (2015), Kumamoto Local Plan for Disaster Prevention (Edition on measure on Earthquake/Tsunami ) (revised in 2017). http://cyber.pref.kumamoto.jp/bousai/content/upload/p6_2_1102 %E5%9C%B0%E5%9F%9F%E9%98%B2%E7%81%BD%E8% A8%88%E7%94%BB%EF%BC%88%E5%9C%B0%E9%9C %87%E7%81%BD%E5%AE%B3%E3%83%BB%E6%B4%A5 %E6%B3%A2%E5%AF%BE%E7%AD%96%E7%B7%A8%EF %BC%89.pdf [Last accessed November 1, 2017]
- [17] Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion, Earthquake Research Committee, “Evaluation on 2016 Kumamoto Earthquake,” published in April 15, 2016. http://www.static.jishin.go.jp/resource/monthly/2016/2016 _kumamoto.pdf [Last accessed November 1, 2017]
- [18] Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion, Earthquake Research Committee, “Evaluation on earthquake in Kumamoto region, Kumamoto Prefecture, April 16, 2016,” published in April 17, 2016. http://www.static.jishin.go.jp/resource/monthly/2016/2016 _kumamoto_2.pdf [Last accessed November 1, 2017]
- [19] National Institute for Land and Infrastructure Management (MLIT), Japan and Building Research Institute (2016), “Reports on committee for Building damage,” September, 2016. http://www. nilim.go.jp/lab/hbg/0930/text.pdf [Last accessed November 1, 2017]
- [20] Fire and Disaster Management Agency Emergency Response Office, “Kumamoto Earthquakes (104th report),” published in AM11:00, July 14, 2017 http://www.fdma.go.jp/bn/2016/detail /960.htmlhttp://www.fdma.go.jp/bn/%E3%80%90%E7%AC%AC104%E5 %A0%B1%E3%80%91%E7%86 %8A%E6%9C%AC%E7%9C% 8C%E7%86%8A%E6%9C%AC%E5%9C%B0%E6%96%B9%E3 %82%92%E9%9C%87%E6%BA%90%E3%81%A8%E3%81%99 %E3%82%8B%E5%9C%B0%E9%9C%87.pdf [Last accessed November 1, 2017]
- [21] Mashiki machi (2012, 2016), “Mashiki buildings earthquake-resistant repair promotion plan” planned March, 2012, revised March, 2016. http://www.town.mashiki.lg.jp/common/UploadFile Dsp.aspx?c_id=34&id=39&sub_id=1&flid=696 [Last accessed November 1, 2017]
- [22] Y. Saito, “Disaster Response by Municipalities which government office building were suffered – example of Uto City,” pp. 45-55, in Regional Disaster Prevention data overview, 2016 Kumamoto Earthquake edition, 186pp., Institute of Scientific Approaches for Fire & Disaster.
- [23] Uto City, 2017, “Uto City buildings earthquake-resistant repair promotion plan,” February 2017, http://www.city.uto.kumamoto.jp /q/aview/49/14890.html [Last accessed November 1, 2017]
- [24] Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism (MLIT), 2012, “House/Buildings earthquake-resistant repair promotion,” Policy reviews, Review result (evaluation report) https://www.mlit.go.jp/common/000206274.pdf [Last accessed November 1, 2017]
- [25] Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism (MLIT), “House/Buildings earthquake-resistant repair,” 2017, http://www.mlit.go.jp/common/001093095.pdf
- [26] Kumamoto Prefecture, 2017, “Act for Promotion of Renovation for Earthquake-Resistant Structures of Buildings””Kumamoto Prefecture buildings earthquake-resistant repair promotion plan,” planned March, 2017, http://www.pref.kumamoto.jp/ common/UploadFileOutput.ashx?c_id=3&id=1605&sub_id=3 &flid=101566 [Last accessed November 1, 2017]
- [27] Kumamoto City, 2016, “Kumamoto city buildings earthquake-resistant repair promotion plan,” planned in March, 2008, revised March, 2012, revised April 2016, https://www.city.kumamoto.jp/common/UploadFileDsp.aspx?c _id=5&id=1073&sub_id=3&flid=81295 [Last accessed November 1, 2017]
- [28] R. Kimura, S. Ohtomo, and N. Hirata, “A Study on the 2016 Kumamoto Earthquake: Citizen’s Evaluation of Earthquake Information and Their Evacuation and Sheltering Behaviors,” this issue.
- [29] S. Ohtomo, R. Kimura, and N. Hirata, “The influences of residents’ evacuation patterns in the 2016 Kumamoto Earthquake on public risk perceptions and trust towards authorities,” this issue.
- [30] Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism, “House/Buildings earthquake-resistant repair promotion,” FY2011 Policy reviews, Review result (evaluation report), March 2012, https://www.mlit.go.jp/common/000206274.pdf [Last accessed November 1, 2017]
- [31] Refer to p.42 of Subdivision on Geodesy and Geophysics, Council for Science and Technology, “Earthquake and Volcano Hazards Observation and Research Program,” status review report, 2017, http://www.eri.u-tokyo.ac.jp/YOTIKYO/OpenReport/H28/H28_Review.pdf [Last accessed November 1, 2017, in Japanese]
- [32] Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion, Earthquake Research Committee, “Aftershock probability analysis method,” April 8, 1998, http://www.jishin.go.jp/ reports/research_report/aftershock/yoshin2_yoshin2/ [Last accessed November 1, 2017, in Japanese]
- [33] Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion, Earthquake Research Committee, “Transmission of information on earthquake activity after huge earthquake,” August 19, 2016, http://www.jishin.go.jp/main/yosoku_info/honpen.pdf [Last accessed November 1, 2017, in Japanese]
- [34] N. Kamaya, K. Takeda, and T. Hashimoto, “Japanese New Guidelines for the Information of the Prospect of Seismic Activity after Big Earthquakes and their Applications,” this issue.
- [35] “Subcommittee for Group to take advantage of the results in society,” Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion, June 15, 2001 (in Japanese), http://www.jishin.go.jp/main/seisaku/hokoku01i/hokoku.pdf [Last accessed November 1, 2017]
- [36] Coordination Subcommittee, Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion, 2016, document No.60-(5), “Re-evaluation of long-term estimation on active faults (draft),” August 15, 2016, http://www.jishin.go.jp/main/seisaku/hokoku16j/sg60-5.pdf [Last accessed November 1, 2017, in Japanese]
- [37] Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion, “Re-evaluation of long-term estimation on active faults,” 2016. http://www.jishin.go.jp/resource/column/16aut_p4/ [Last accessed November 1, 2017, in Japanese]
- [38] Council for Science and Technology (2013), Earthquake and Volcano Hazards Observation and Research Program (Recommendation) http://www.mext.go.jp/b_menu/shingi/gijyutu/ gijyutu6/toushin/attach/1341570.htm [Last accessed November 1, 2017, in Japanese]
This article is published under a Creative Commons Attribution-NoDerivatives 4.0 Internationa License.